Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[dha]

Positive catalysts for moving TSLA higher: a strong Q1 showing, positive Gigafactory news in the form of agreement reached with investors/partners, Model X progress.

Why are any of these foregone conclusions? Why isn't it just as likely that TSLA will have a weak Q1 showing, Gigafactory news comes in the form of more partner waffling / logistical hurdles, or Model X experiences further delays?

Further, why should the above "positive catalysts" result in additional upside when they would merely be Tesla accomplishing what is already expected of them. To me, the risk appears to be to the downside on these items. I see the NHTSA "all clear" as a perfect illustration of the fact that a catalyst everyone expects is no catalyst at all.

Not a short and not trying to be inflammatory, just trying to see what the rationale is here and make sure everyone is looking at things objectively.

 

[pz1975]

Why are any of these foregone conclusions? Why isn't it just as likely that TSLA will have a weak Q1 showing, Gigafactory news comes in the form of more partner waffling / logistical hurdles, or Model X experiences further delays?

Further, why should the above "positive catalysts" result in additional upside when they would merely be Tesla accomplishing what is already expected of them. To me, the risk appears to be to the downside on these items. I see the NHTSA "all clear" as a perfect illustration of the fact that a catalyst everyone expects is no catalyst at all.

Not a short and not trying to be inflammatory, just trying to see what the rationale is here and make sure everyone is looking at things objectively.

I agree that remaining objective is important and I think we've failed to do that here sometimes (especially near ATH's). However, I definitely think partner confirmation for the gigafactory would be a huge positive catalyst, especially if they are big names. The Panasonic potential "waffling" stories over the last couple weeks did cause the stock to fall and so there is definitely room to the upside should they (and/or other partners) confirm their partnership as it adds more credibility to Tesla and to the likelihood of the eventual existence of the gigafactory.

 

[aznt1217]

I actually have a different theory as to why things sold off so much. The employment report just confirmed fears for many. Some people think Tesla is going to go with a dealership model based on some publications recently and more importantly, I think it has to do with taxes. I think a lot of people reinvested hoping to make an extra buck before we have to pay the man and they are now raising capital because the deadline is looming and it takes time for funds to clear.

 

[Curt Renz]

...and more importantly, I think it has to do with taxes. I think a lot of people reinvested hoping to make an extra buck before we have to pay the man and they are now raising capital because the deadline is looming and it takes time for funds to clear.

If the shares remain held, then no gain is realized, and there are no taxes to be paid.

 

[Twiddler]

All being said, it would make sense that at least some of the weakness that we are seeing in momentum names relates to profit taking for the purpose of paying taxes given their dramatic run over the past year.

 

[dha]

If the shares remain held, then no gain is realized, an there are no taxes to be paid.

I think what he was suggesting was that some investors were effectively "free riding" with their 2013 tax responsibilities and taking speculative positions that they intended to liquidate before this year's filing deadline.

Not sure I agree with this specific take on things, but it does make sense that there'd be something of a selloff in April following a year when many large gains were likely realized.

 

[aznt1217]

what i meant was, i suspect many (like myself) took profits when the f*res last year hit, booked profits, accumulated and went back in or went back in without setting aside enough cash to pay

 

[AlMc]

what i meant was, i suspect many (like myself) took profits when the f*res last year hit, booked profits, accumulated and went back in or went back in without setting aside enough cash to pay

Agreed. You can add my name to Aznt's list,

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Why are any of these foregone conclusions? Why isn't it just as likely that TSLA will have a weak Q1 showing, Gigafactory news comes in the form of more partner waffling / logistical hurdles, or Model X experiences further delays?

Further, why should the above "positive catalysts" result in additional upside when they would merely be Tesla accomplishing what is already expected of them. To me, the risk appears to be to the downside on these items. I see the NHTSA "all clear" as a perfect illustration of the fact that a catalyst everyone expects is no catalyst at all.

Not a short and not trying to be inflammatory, just trying to see what the rationale is here and make sure everyone is looking at things objectively.

I don't think these are foregone conclusions, but I do think that their announcement will boost stock price. They are possibilities, not certainties. The Gigafactory in particular has garnered a lot of skepticism from the media, and the Panasonic waffling has fueled further doubt. If Tesla pulls it off the future looks a lot more certain to investors.

NHTSA was not a price booster and I did not believe it would be in the past 2 months or so. Why? Because (1) no fyre incidents occurred in the past few months (2) the news cycle moves fast and washed away short-term memory of the incidents. Basically, people ceased to fear fyres, so NHTSA clearance did not have fears to erase. If NHTSA had cleared when people were still abuzz about the accidents, late last year, I think that would have pushed the stock back up.

In any case, no one should sweat this stuff unless they are active traders or buying shorter term options. The Tesla plan still has at least 4 years left, and possibly 5+ to get BEVs into the mass market. Patience is likely, though not certainly, to be rewarded.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Why are any of these foregone conclusions? Why isn't it just as likely that TSLA will have a weak Q1 showing, Gigafactory news comes in the form of more partner waffling / logistical hurdles, or Model X experiences further delays?

Further, why should the above "positive catalysts" result in additional upside when they would merely be Tesla accomplishing what is already expected of them. To me, the risk appears to be to the downside on these items. I see the NHTSA "all clear" as a perfect illustration of the fact that a catalyst everyone expects is no catalyst at all.

Not a short and not trying to be inflammatory, just trying to see what the rationale is here and make sure everyone is looking at things objectively.

Why aren't you short? Your view point would entirely support that (I am not saying I agree with it). You don't need anyone's approval to be short, but reading your post I find it hard to believe your not.

 

[dha]

Why aren't you short? Your view point would entirely support that (I am not saying I agree with it). You don't need anyone's approval to be short, but reading your post I find it hard to believe your not.

I don't agree that my post would suggest I'm net short.

I am not short because I still believe the net balance of news and sentiment around TSLA is likely to be neutral or positive in the next few months (and obviously extremely positive in the long term). Elon/Tesla have also demonstrated a knack for pulling rabbits out of their hat and demolishing short positions without warning.

However, I am not confident enough in the next few months to let my long position go unhedged, or open any leveraged long positions (e.g. short-term options). I don't see any "bankable" positive catalysts in the short term, and TSLA will not fare well if the NASDAQ continues to demonstrate volatility.

I agree that there's no inherent shame in being short and I wouldn't hesitate to admit if I was. If you really need proof PM me and I'll send you a screenshot of my current TSLA position via my broker.

 

[warfo09]

Not really about Tesla, but very relevant because of Nasdaq/Tech/Downtrend etc

From BBC:

The Department of Labor reported the US economy added 192,000 jobs in March, meeting expectations and pointing to steady improvement in the jobs market.

But analysts said the sell-off was spurred not by the jobs report or other news, but by the same negative sentiment that has hit tech and biotech names intermittently over the last few weeks.

As traders dumped tech stocks, they shifted money into less volatile companies including Coca-Cola, Johnson & Johnson and utility stocks.

Alan Skrainka, chief investment officer of Cornerstone Wealth Management, said the fall in tech shares was "the frothiest part of the market cracking in a big way".

Small caps are overvalued and the hottest names in the Nasdaq are leading the way down."

Uri Landesman, president of the hedge fund Platinum Management, said: "It's like (traders) took a look at some of these high-flying internet companies and said, 'how can I justify these prices?'"

Tech stocks had soared over the past year, pushing the Nasdaq 28% higher. Shares in Netflix and Facebook have doubled in price over the year.

 

[blakegallagher]

I don't agree that my post would suggest I'm net short.

I am not short because I still believe the net balance of news and sentiment around TSLA is likely to be neutral or positive in the next few months (and obviously extremely positive in the long term). Elon/Tesla have also demonstrated a knack for pulling rabbits out of their hat and demolishing short positions without warning.

However, I am not confident enough in the next few months to let my long position go unhedged, or open any leveraged long positions (e.g. short-term options). I don't see any "bankable" positive catalysts in the short term, and TSLA will not fare well if the NASDAQ continues to demonstrate volatility.

I agree that there's no inherent shame in being short and I wouldn't hesitate to admit if I was. If you really need proof PM me and I'll send you a screenshot of my current TSLA position via my broker.

I believe if there are giant upswings in the volatility of the Nasdaq than TSLA will fare quite well

 

[Auzie]

My kristal ball view:

TSLA reached ATH on the first news of gigafactory, back in February. As soon as the news on gigafactory fizzled out, the stock retreated. If we get any positive confirmation on gigafactory build, we may get a short squeeze.
Good time to buy some leaps. Brave ones might buy calls.

 

[Robertj]

I have sold my shares and bought Jan 15 leaps
must be the atmosphere down here

 

[marvinat0rz]

Have to admit I'm a bit worried that we're down 2% in the pre-market. Once again, it seems like a whole-market thing, which I think is the main risk at the moment.

 

[FluxCap]

Have to admit I'm a bit worried that we're down 2% in the pre-market. Once again, it seems like a whole-market thing, which I think is the main risk at the moment.

FYI, I went ahead and created a new thread to discuss macroeconomic forces and analysis, in case anyone is interested.

We dipped to $206 pre-market on no TSLA-specific news I can find. Other "high-fliers" like NFLX are up pre-market. Anyone making moves at the open?

 

[marvinat0rz]

Thanks, Flux. A pre-earnings drop in the absence of macro forces doesn't really make sense unless deliveries in the US have been dramatically lower than in previous quarters. This could certainly be the case due to Tesla prioritizing European deliveries, but currently there's no information out about this. If someone has an inkling or estimate of the US delivery numbers in Jan-March, this would be a very lucrative piece of information.

 

[justthateasy]

Good luck today folks. I hope everyone has some sort of stress reliever handy. :wink:

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Russian aktivists stormed Donetsk government buildings during the weekend and declared independence with referendum set on 11th of May. That crapshoot might have something to do with the markets...