Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[GenIIIBuyer]

The sale is about to be over. So don't miss your chance! Approaching 165.

Weak longs, gtfo

 

[mershaw2001]

Weak longs, gtfo

This is the social chat, so I feel like I can vent my frustration with tesla today here. I have this dreadful feeling today looking at the after hours trades as they head down, but I think that the worst feeling is the fact that there isn't a true panic amongst tesla investors right now. I usually believe that it's only after there's true panic that things turn around. I see all these tweets on stupid sites like stock twits that talk about tesla at 125, and think 'then there would be panic'. I've committed everything extra to tesla right now. I hope the PR tomorrow turns things around.

 

[ckessel]

This is the social chat, so I feel like I can vent my frustration with today here.

I'm very nervous. I didn't think things could keep dropping. I'm at risk of losing 100% of everything I could risk losing, which means I'd have nothing for future investment. I'll still have some stock and LEAPS, but the 50% I cashed out to buy TSLA and solar options is at serious risk. TSLA recovered decently from the battery fire and from the debt ceiling, so I certainly didn't see a reason to panic sell either during or just after those points. Now, my Nov options are getting awfully close and I basically have the choice of take a 60+% loss now and have something left or gamble it all on the Q3 earnings call. Both seem like bad choices and I'm not sure which is the lesser evil.

I'd had enough diversity of calls that I'd figured a modest (10%) decline wasn't going to crush me, but this is getting well beyond that point. Plus, solar has been hit too so the gains I had there than somewhat offset TSLA have largely evaporated.

In short, it's hard to have much optimism. Tesla itself is doing very well, but TSLA's tsunami of hurt seems to have found new targets.

 

[fjm9898]

i am quite worried as well. if we break under 160 tomorrow i really dont see it stopping.
lets hope for a happy market tomorrow to help us out

 

[mershaw2001]

i am quite worried as well. if we break under 160 tomorrow i really dont see it stopping.
lets hope for a happy market tomorrow to help us out

One of the great things about investing in Tesla is that Elon usually will have something in his back pocket if it gets really bad and come riding to the rescue at the last minute. Hope for that.

 

[fjm9898]

One of the great things about investing in Tesla is that Elon usually will have something in his back pocket if it gets really bad and come riding to the rescue at the last minute. Hope for that.

I dont think he will, but lets hope for guns blazing tomorrow.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

My rule is no short term options except after larger drops. Well, we've had several larger drops so I keep piling in. After the battery fire recovery I got Dec200s. Monday I got some November 200s. Today I changed the strategy and bought some stock, but then sold it for a small profit and got November $150s which only needs $171 at expiration to break even but I plan to sell them before then if the stock rebounds. This is my last buy the dip unless I start selling my solar holdings. I also bought some weekly $140 puts in case everything breaks lose tomorrow or Friday. They were only $.25, so I figured why not.

I should probably change my rule; I probably should just stay away from short term options from now on even if it's after a dip. There would be a lot less stress if I stuck to LEAPS and stock.

 

[Clemsons2k]

I'm not sure if a $1.20 drop after hours is worry for losing hope.

 

[fjm9898]

i wouldnt think so. its light volume. After hours people are going to be people in the industry usually locked out of trading during the day and what not. So they might be selling their little bit off to. Its been said time and time again AH means nothing unless its on volume.

 

[blakegallagher]

there is one thing if we drop below 160 that will help stop the madness ... the truly insane value of this company. ... try to hang in there everyone ... as Citizen has pointed out it ... if it can go down this fast on "no news" (nothing significant in my opinion) it can surely go up fast on some great news.

I see people downplaying the Germany announcement but when I see Elon say he will be delivering 200 cars per week next year to Germany alone I get very excited ..... I have a lot of Nov 190/200 options that are all after the earnings report and would be lyeing if I said I was not somewhat nervous but with the second and third largest markets starting deliveries this year and next I think we will be ok. The supplier issues are not as bad as people think and Tesla will be making more cars at the end of next year than any analyst is currently predicting.

I am not sure of the accuracy of the article but I saw one that said Tesla is outselling the S class Mercedes in the first half of the year. I also saw that there are about 50k a year that are sold in China. With deliveries to China on the Horizon and Deliveries to Germany already started The guidance for next year is going to be great.

For all of us holding short term options this could still end up sucking pretty bad but if you are in it for the term or your options are a few months out there is nothing to worry about.

Goodluck all and hold on. My prediction for 2014 ... Tesla will exit with a run rate approaching 80k a year! (here is to hoping)

edit: meant this sound reassuring but it sounds alarmist. If your options are after earnings I think you will be fine. If we go into earnings at this level hold through earnings

 

[surfside]

my situation / current strategy

ok, i'll chime in re: my situation. i have the following mix of calls (all purchased in the timeframe from post-fire to today):

Maturity	Strike	% of Total	% Loss	Breakeven
Nov 16th	$165	42%	44%	$190.30
Nov 16th	$180	15%	54%	$198.37
Mar 2014	$180	43%	21%	$205.79

laying out this information helps me take stock and think about where the price would need to move to (and in what timeframe) in order to achieve breakeven on these options. my current strategy is to hold the november 16th calls for now based on my current belief that it is more likely than not that the stock is going to increase somewhat leading up to earnings, and the shorter term options are going to appreciate faster with the stock movement than longer dated options leading up to the earnings announcement date. depending on where the stock price is before earnings, i will very likely sell the november 180s and roll those into either march 2014s or january 2015s given my belief that longer term, TSLA is going nowhere but up.

that being said, my current thinking is that if the stock corrects further in a meaningful way, i may consider selling my november 180s and roll those into LEAPs to cut my losses and position for the longer term.

i'd be interested to hear others thoughts on all of the above. regardless, here's to TSLA recovery over the next couple weeks

surfside

 

[Citizen-T]

Way too much panic here guys. Just like no stock goes straight up, no stock goes straight down. We are due for a bounce here, it may be a dead cat bounce, but it will give those of you who have clearly taken on too much risk a chance to exit your positions. I fully expect tomorrow to be an up day for TSLA. All the indicators I'm watching are saying that we are oversold. If you need to reduce your risk, look to do it around $175 (depending what day it happens).

If you have long dated options (like stuff in 2014 or later) seriously---chill out! You've got nothing to worry about. If you sell those calls, expect that I'm going to be the guy buying them from you.

 

[NuclearPowered]

What do you all figure the chances are of GS pulling off another 'upgrade' and shaking a bunch more shares loose for us?

 

[Ocelot]

I hold calls that expire in two days, and the first week of november. Currently down about 80% combined. Overall portfolio down about 20% in last week.

There is really no way around taking a bath on these options I hold. I simply put too many eggs in one basket, a reminder to myself that even thought my portfolio is not very diversified, the plays i make within that limited diversity need to have a broader range.

After following this stock for nearly two years, though I would recommend those with options post november to take a big breath, as there will be an opportunity to regain most of your losses, even maybe profit. So my advice is those holding nov 16 options or after, just hold tight, breath and it should be ok.

 

[brianman]

I hold calls that expire in two days, and the first week of november. Currently down about 80% combined. Overall portfolio down about 20% in last week.

Strike price(s)?

 

[Chickenlittle]

I hold calls that expire in two days, and the first week of november. Currently down about 80% combined. Overall portfolio down about 20% in last week.

There is really no way around taking a bath on these options I hold. I simply put too many eggs in one basket, a reminder to myself that even thought my portfolio is not very diversified, the plays i make within that limited diversity need to have a broader range.

After following this stock for nearly two years, though I would recommend those with options post november to take a big breath, as there will be an opportunity to regain most of your losses, even maybe profit. So my advice is those holding nov 16 options or after, just hold tight, breath and it should be ok.

Actually when down under 160 I was able to sell my march calls strike 150 through 210 for jan 15 calls same # but strike 200 without costing more than march sales price. Less risk in my opinion

 

[destroid]

Today TSLA was down approximately 18% from the all time high. We could go lower, but this is most likely not the beginning of the 50% drop in AAPL or the 80% drop in NFLX.

We all probably wish we were better hedged but as others have said, if you want less risk go with LEAPs or stock. Or a money market fund. If your theory about TSLA has not changed why would you sell now? If you need the money for living expenses it should not have been invested in volatile equities.

For every fun week like Sept 18 there will be weeks like this /rant off

 

[c041v]

While the past couple of weeks have been pretty annoying, I am glad that I cooled it with options after the Q2 IV collapse. I realized that I was picking all the right options, but selling them at the wrong time, due to a combination of a weak stomach and inexperience.

I'm heeding Ocelot's advice and hanging on tight to the last Calls I hold, my Nov 200's. From now to ER is a long time in TSLAland. I'll risk the 1000 cuts of time decay knowing that TSLA makes the most dramatic moves right after I throw in the towel and hit the sell button.

 

[mershaw2001]

While the past couple of weeks have been pretty annoying, I am glad that I cooled it with options after the Q2 IV collapse. I realized that I was picking all the right options, but selling them at the wrong time, due to a combination of a weak stomach and inexperience.

I'm heeding Ocelot's advice and hanging on tight to the last Calls I hold, my Nov 200's. From now to ER is a long time in TSLAland. I'll risk the 1000 cuts of time decay knowing that TSLA makes the most dramatic moves right after I throw in the towel and hit the sell button.

I think that the problem with this message board is that people post the strategy that was successful for them in the past and that strategy appears good but by the time it's posted, things have changed. That strategy most likely would not work in the future. For instance, buying options was hugely successful in the run up. Now selling time decay is probably the most dominant strategy out there. The only problem is that most people on the board take cues 1 week or two weeks after the people who pick up on these trends are done with the trend.

 

[Cameron]

While the past couple of weeks have been pretty annoying, I am glad that I cooled it with options after the Q2 IV collapse. I realized that I was picking all the right options, but selling them at the wrong time, due to a combination of a weak stomach and inexperience.

I'm heeding Ocelot's advice and hanging on tight to the last Calls I hold, my Nov 200's. From now to ER is a long time in TSLAland. I'll risk the 1000 cuts of time decay knowing that TSLA makes the most dramatic moves right after I throw in the towel and hit the sell button.

+1
As quickly as this stock moves down, it can move right back up just as fast. Funny how we all seem to forget that when fear kicks in.