Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[FluxCap]

Regarding engineering talent, Marc Tarpenning talks about how the major automakers have outsourced so much of their engineering that they are shells of what they once were in this talk: Amplify Mentor Event: Marc Tarpenning (Tesla) - YouTube

I agree with Marc.

I love this video. Thank you Fango. The whole thing is worth watching.

The response to the competition question at 52:00 is fantastic. Some quotes talking about other automakers:

"It's actually even worse than I ever imagined. They will get there, but it's an epically slow journey for them."

"They don't even design the computers that control the engines, they outsource it."

Nearly all relevant car companies other than Tesla Motors in 2014 don't design or manufacture much of anything internally except engines, and spend most of their money on sales and marketing. They certainly aren't made up of software guys and electrical engineers, they have divested and outsourced those almost completely. It will take them so very long to catch up, if they ever even decide to try. By then, my bet is they will be begging Tesla Motors for help.

 

[chickensevil]

Regarding engineering talent, Marc Tarpenning talks about how the major automakers have outsourced so much of their engineering that they are shells of what they once were in this talk: Amplify Mentor Event: Marc Tarpenning (Tesla) - YouTube It's long, and that's not all he talks about, but it's worth watching in the entirety. I think the engineering question comes up at the end during the Q&A.

You also assume that the business people *know* what decision will make the best outcome for the business, or that they're capable of making that decision (innovator's dilemma). And as you mentioned, term is important. I would also argue that any business decision which is bad for the planet is a bad business decision.

That is one of my favorite videos regarding Tesla and everyone else. I wish Tesla would hand been able to continue with all the original founders at the helm... It is too bad they had a falling out.

 

[StapleGun]

Regarding engineering talent in ice car making businesses, I would disagree that it is lacking, on the contrary. Car making business always was, always will be like a honey pot in attracting the best engineering talent there is.

I grew up in the Detroit suburbs and don't recall many people being excited to work for auto companies. In college the best and brightest that I knew all moved away for a job they were more interested in. Personally, I moved to silicon valley and would never consider going back to work for one of the ICE manufacturers.

 

[Auzie]

Regarding engineering talent, Marc Tarpenning talks about how the major automakers have outsourced so much of their engineering that they are shells of what they once were in this talk: Amplify Mentor Event: Marc Tarpenning (Tesla) - YouTube It's long, and that's not all he talks about, but it's worth watching in the entirety. I think the engineering question comes up at the end during the Q&A.

You also assume that the business people *know* what decision will make the best outcome for the business, or that they're capable of making that decision (innovator's dilemma). And as you mentioned, term is important. I would also argue that any business decision which is bad for the planet is a bad business decision.

There is a lot of outsourcing in all businesses, not just car making. My point was that car makers can have and do have all the engineering talent that they wish or need.

Regarding business decisions in well established businesses, they are usually made based on numbers. It is unfortunate that some businesses are not aligned with the planet survival, but they are still thriving.

There are many examples of profitable businesses that are not aligned with planet survival or human race benefit. How about guns, heavy weapons makers, and other killing accessories, I do not think that they help the planet, yet they are thriving.

Car makers chasing profit are like innocent babies when compared to some businesses out there.

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[EldestOyster]

All of the motive bits about the i8 reminds me of Fisker's Karma, particularly the efficiency numbers. But each manufacturer has decided what goal they hope to achieve. I even sort of understand what the plug-in Prius was about. The i3 is a member of a growing class of, shall we call them, "almost 100 mile" cars. Elon doesn't even regard them as real EV's (and many of you won't, either), but they do serve a useful purpose, particularly for those households with more than one car.

In other news, I finally bought me a few shares of this fine company (TSLA), so watch for another drop No worries, though; I plan to buy more if they keep dropping the price. It will all be good in the long term.

 

[TSLAopt]

Dana Hull is a reporter that follows Tesla closely and tweeted last night "@danahull: Dougherty's Andrea James: Tesla's biggest mistake thus far as a company has been to massively underestimate demand for the Model S"

Does anyone know if there is perhaps a new report issued by Andrea James or a new interview done with her on TSLA? Or perhaps Dana Hull is just regurgitating an old quote

 

[Citizen-T]

Alright, enough sitting on the sidelines. I'm buying LEAPs from here down to the 200-day.

 

[Cobos]

I agree with Marc.

I love this video. Thank you Fango. The whole thing is worth watching.

The response to the competition question at 52:00 is fantastic. Some quotes talking about other automakers:

"It's actually even worse than I ever imagined. They will get there, but it's an epically slow journey for them."

"They don't even design the computers that control the engines, they outsource it."

Nearly all relevant car companies other than Tesla Motors in 2014 don't design or manufacture much of anything internally except engines, and spend most of their money on sales and marketing. They certainly aren't made up of software guys and electrical engineers, they have divested and outsourced those almost completely. It will take them so very long to catch up, if they ever even decide to try. By then, my bet is they will be begging Tesla Motors for help.

I also love that video, and I think Marc is spot on for the US ICE-makers, but the 3 "premium" German brands still has an image that says they have excellent in-house engineers. Anyone that knows if this is true? The i3 and the VW e-Golf are both decent city cars with enough range to sell like crazy here in Norway. Keep in mind generally, Leaf, e-up, e-Golf and i3 individually outsell the Model S every month. So in a EV-positive country these cars DO have their uses and loyal followers.

Cobos

 

[AlMc]

Alright, enough sitting on the sidelines. I'm buying LEAPs from here down to the 200-day.

You are 'the man'. I am sitting out till $230 which with the angry market today may actually be today!

 

[ckessel]

Well, my clever plan of selling a $245 PUT earlier for $9.45 isn't working very well at this point . All my holdings are red. Even some SPWR I got a long while back and has been green for a long time has turned red again. TSLA and solar both are in a pretty extended dive.

 

[AlMc]

Well, my clever plan of selling a $245 PUT earlier for $9.45 isn't working very well at this point . All my holdings are red. Even some SPWR I got a long while back and has been green for a long time has turned red again. TSLA and solar both are in a pretty extended dive.

I decided with seeing that everything I hold is down today I have decided it would be best not to even look at my TDAmeritrade account today.....

 

[ggr]

Well, my clever plan of selling a $245 PUT earlier for $9.45 isn't working very well at this point . All my holdings are red. Even some SPWR I got a long while back and has been green for a long time has turned red again. TSLA and solar both are in a pretty extended dive.

Yeah, me too. But I picked up a little VSLR at below the IPO price, it's insane that the solars are down so much.

 

[LST]

It looks as if we were heading towards the 200 MA more quickly than expected. So to all the chartist, where will be the next resistance (other than the 200 MA) will be ? All the strong longs should have some cash ready too load up again at these bargain prices.

 

[ckessel]

It looks as if we were heading towards the 200 MA more quickly than expected. So to all the chartist, where will be the next resistance (other than the 200 MA) will be ? All the strong longs should have some cash ready too load up again at these bargain prices.

I'm not a chartist, but I noted earlier up thread that the first two big falls off ATH gave up 1/2 their gains. If it does that again, we'd be looking for $235. I'm very curious to see if that pattern holds up.

 

[AlMc]

I'm not a chartist, but I noted earlier up thread that the first two big falls off ATH gave up 1/2 their gains. If it does that again, we'd be looking for $235. I'm very curious to see if that pattern holds up.

I believe this is a good thesis you have...It also closely follows the support of 200dMA. (In this instance 200dMA is $215ish)

 

[uselesslogin]

Well by the metric of Tesla sightings in Northwest Austin they completely blew the roof off this quarter. It seems like we are seeing twice as many daily since the deliveries really ramped up 2 weeks ago.

 

[FluxCap]

Well by the metric of Tesla sightings in Northwest Austin they completely blew the roof off this quarter. It seems like we are seeing twice as many daily since the deliveries really ramped up 2 weeks ago.

If they beat guidance, this dip could certainly make for some tidy profits. I believe the market has priced in a Q3 miss at these levels.

 

[AlMc]

I decided with seeing that everything I hold is down today I have decided it would be best not to even look at my TDAmeritrade account today.....

Ok, I looked...not pretty, and I decided to put in some low ball bids on some LEAPS.

 

[32no]

I'm not a chartist, but I noted earlier up thread that the first two big falls off ATH gave up 1/2 their gains. If it does that again, we'd be looking for $235. I'm very curious to see if that pattern holds up.

Further supporting that $235 level, I noticed a trend. Back when the craze started at ~$55 started, I remember how long of a run up we enjoyed all the way up to $195 before falling back to ~$115, which is $60 above $55. Then we rallied to $265 before falling to ~$175, which is $60 above $115. Then we rallied to $290, and $60 above $175 is $235.

 

[austinEV]

Well by the metric of Tesla sightings in Northwest Austin they completely blew the roof off this quarter. It seems like we are seeing twice as many daily since the deliveries really ramped up 2 weeks ago.

The display car was gone from the store too.