Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Tenable]

Extremely infuriating, when you go your heart out 'against' a company with a legitimate & world changing purpose. A company that's growing & executing in tough environment, building great products. It seems morally wrong, when there's so much at stake. Unfortunately, he seems to have a following. He totally beat down - GoPro, Ambarella, Valeant & MobileEye.

I'm long on TSLA. With that in mind the market is about money, not morality. Believing otherwise is a recipe for pain.

 

[Papafox]

With the issues Tesla is having with the X, I can TOTALLY understand it. I sometimes wonder if the posters on this short-term thread ever peruse the other threads on TMC to get an idea of what is going on with the actual company - NOT JUST THE STOCK. Most people on here didn't even know the supercharger build-out was coming to a grinding halt back in January. I pointed out that no new superchargers had been started all year, and most on here said, "well, they just opened one last week" - showing a total unfamiliarity with the supercharger build-out process. How do you invest hard-earned money in a company and not watch EVERY phase of their growth?

Now, I constantly keep an eye on EVERY post about the Model X, and while the reviews are ok for the car itself, NOBODY is getting their car! They are trickling out of the factory. As it looks now, there have been maybe 1000-1200 X's delivered - IN FIVE MONTHS! And some people were told their car is in production, and they can't even get a reply from Tesla after 2 months to tell them what is going on with their car.

Something is seriously wrong with the ramp of the X - and if you didn't know that, you're in the dark.

Buddyroe, I appreciate your concern about Model X rampup because I too browse the Model X threads. That said, there's a disparity of information here. In many of the threads you get the feeling of only a few Model X vehicles being delivered. Then you hear stories of people at a local SC with 3 Model Xs scheduled for delivery. Then there's the Goldman-Sachs tour of the factory and their observations of Model Xs on the production line.

I agree with you that Model X deliveries are much lower than we would like, but I think the Model X threads give an inaccurate feel for the number of deliveries. A bias exists on those threads because the people who have received their vehicles are much less likely to comment than people impatiently waiting for vehicles for long periods of time.

 

[Fallenone]

I agree with your concern over X ramp up. The Inside EVs numbers yesterday IMO is a fair estimate of how low the delivery was. That being said, I think the X forum represents a mixed bag of deliveries, with sig owners surpassed by prod owners. My personal opinion on this is, yes the ramp is slow but it's not really something to freak out, at least not yet.

As for the supercharger, I think I replied to you on this one a month ago. They are halting it for better financial numbers for Q1 2016. I'm pretty sure they will resume with even faster speed than before after X ramp.

With the issues Tesla is having with the X, I can TOTALLY understand it. I sometimes wonder if the posters on this short-term thread ever peruse the other threads on TMC to get an idea of what is going on with the actual company - NOT JUST THE STOCK. Most people on here didn't even know the supercharger build-out was coming to a grinding halt back in January. I pointed out that no new superchargers had been started all year, and most on here said, "well, they just opened one last week" - showing a total unfamiliarity with the supercharger build-out process. How do you invest hard-earned money in a company and not watch EVERY phase of their growth?

Now, I constantly keep an eye on EVERY post about the Model X, and while the reviews are ok for the car itself, NOBODY is getting their car! They are trickling out of the factory. As it looks now, there have been maybe 1000-1200 X's delivered - IN FIVE MONTHS! And some people were told their car is in production, and they can't even get a reply from Tesla after 2 months to tell them what is going on with their car.

Something is seriously wrong with the ramp of the X - and if you didn't know that, you're in the dark.

 

[Buddyroe]

Buddyroe, I appreciate your concern about Model X rampup because I too browse the Model X threads. That said, there's a disparity of information here. In many of the threads you get the feeling of only a few Model X vehicles being delivered. Then you hear stories of people at a local SC with 3 Model Xs scheduled for delivery. Then there's the Goldman-Sachs tour of the factory and their observations of Model Xs on the production line.

I agree with you that Model X deliveries are much lower than we would like, but I think the Model X threads give an inaccurate feel for the number of deliveries. A bias exists on those threads because the people who have received their vehicles are much less likely to comment than people impatiently waiting for vehicles for long periods of time.

I guess I'm more going off the number of Sig buyers that still don't have their cars and can't get any info from Tesla. And, the VIN numbers, while not 100% accurate, are still VERY low. The last I saw was in the 1300 range. And that was give just a couple of days ago.

 

[Fallenone]

As far as I remember the prod VIN is also in the four digits range. That plus the 1000+ sig VINs make more than 2000 VINs assigned.

I guess I'm more going off the number of Sig buyers that still don't have their cars and can't get any info from Tesla. And, the VIN numbers, while not 100% accurate, are still VERY low. The last I saw was in the 1300 range. And that was give just a couple of days ago.

 

[Buddyroe]

I agree with your concern over X ramp up. The Inside EVs numbers yesterday IMO is a fair estimate of how low the delivery was. That being said, I think the X forum represents a mixed bag of deliveries, with sig owners surpassed by prod owners. My personal opinion on this is, yes the ramp is slow but it's not really something to freak out, at least not yet.

As for the supercharger, I think I replied to you on this one a month ago. They are halting it for better financial numbers for Q1 2016. I'm pretty sure they will resume with even faster speed than before after X ramp.

Yea, the stupidity of the supercharger build-out is mind-numbing. The MAJOR advantage Tesla had on everyone else was their charging network. That was the ONE area they needed to accelerate. The farther ahead they got on the charger network, the more cars they will sell to people based on, "yes, their car will go 200 miles, but where will you charge it when you travel?" Tesla had (has) a major advantage there. They needed to push that harder and harder. But, they let some STUPID doors derail the whole damn plan. Now, they are stuck spending every dime trying to get the damn things to work. I can guarantee you that the COMPLETED, and dense supercharger network would have sold 1000 times more cars than those damn doors. And, for what those doors have now cost, they could have built 2000 superchargers. Just stupid.

 

[speedracer]

Side question: What does the Q1 run rate need to be at to meet 80-90k deliveries in 2016? & based on the InsideEV (US) report how are we tracking against this?

 

[Buddyroe]

As far as I remember the prod VIN is also in the four digits range. That plus the 1000+ sig VINs make more than 2000 VINs assigned.

Most estimates put the total deliveries at 900-1000. I even went a little higher saying 1000-1200. There's a thread in the X forum about delivering 1000 per week. There's a lot of good info there.

 

[BobSk]

MIT Technology Review 2016 listed 10 breakthrough technologies. Elon's companies took 3 spots.

 

[dc_h]

Supercharger construction is not stopped. It does appear to have slowed after 33 new sites in December, only 9 in January and 8 for February. It could be slowing to manage cash for profitable Q1, or aligning global strategies. More emphasis on destination charging at hotels and urban garages.
The interesting thing will be Model S production numbers and if they can hit at least 2000 X deliveries for Q1. Got to feel for the Sig owners with the nagging issues that are not resolved yet. It does seem some process is not nailed down yet, or quality of a couple\few items are not consistent yet. Hoping for more information from Tesla is not likely until after the issue is resolved. SpaceX is the same way. They solve it and focus internally until resolution. Since they continue to build new cars, it is likely there are still some issues with the front window and\or the falcon door settings. Based on recent feedback, it seems the production cars are being completed faster than the Sigs, when production issues were apparently more numerous. Once the sigs are cleared in the next couple of weeks, that should help the service centers get more productive and increase delivery rates significantly. If that happens, then X=3000 deliveries for Q1 seems possible.

I agree with your concern over X ramp up. The Inside EVs numbers yesterday IMO is a fair estimate of how low the delivery was. That being said, I think the X forum represents a mixed bag of deliveries, with sig owners surpassed by prod owners. My personal opinion on this is, yes the ramp is slow but it's not really something to freak out, at least not yet.

As for the supercharger, I think I replied to you on this one a month ago. They are halting it for better financial numbers for Q1 2016. I'm pretty sure they will resume with even faster speed than before after X ramp.

 

[Julian Cox]

Anyway, that was the Citron dip been and gone - and boy what a pathetic figure Andrew Left cuts. He missed the 1st and 2nd reason out of six in his 4 reasons to hold TSLA. 1. DCF valuation (with intelligent inputs). 2. It's grotesquely oversold by muppets thinking exactly the same way he is running headlong into a year of overwhelmingly good news.

http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/cnbc/badge/SIG=112o1ho1m/*http://www.cnbc.com/id/103436379?__source=yahoo%7cfinance%7cheadline%7cheadline%7cstory&par=yahoo&doc=103436379

 

[TNEVol]

Other possible reasons for Supercharger delay may be 1) contracting or contract renewals with construction companies 2) possible imminent negotiations with some partner for future growth 3) some action may be taking place in places such as TN AR MS and other states where permitting is not online and no one knows what a Tesla is. The Knoxville SC is a good example. It was nearly finished when discovered. Same thing for KY. I live 40 miles outside of Nashville and in three years have only seen two MS on I-40 and most people have never heard of Tesla. I do agree that there appears to be a slowdown based upon the wiki site that I have watched for 3 years.

 

[v12 to 12v]

Other possible reasons for Supercharger delay may be 1) contracting or contract renewals with construction companies 2) possible imminent negotiations with some partner for future growth 3) some action may be taking place in places such as TN AR MS and other states where permitting is not online and no one knows what a Tesla is. The Knoxville SC is a good example. It was nearly finished when discovered. Same thing for KY. I live 40 miles outside of Nashville and in three years have only seen two MS on I-40 and most people have never heard of Tesla. I do agree that there appears to be a slowdown based upon the wiki site that I have watched for 3 years.

The Supercharger roll out has been significantly hindered in some areas due to permitting delays. Some areas have a more complicated and time consuming permitting process.

 

[ZenMan]

Nice close near the high of the day. Hope this is it for Citron's short.

 

[Fallenone]

Yes I agree on the total (since 9/31 2015 till now) is in the ballpark of 1000. That leaves 1000+ anywhere from production to QC to SC.

Most estimates put the total deliveries at 900-1000. I even went a little higher saying 1000-1200. There's a thread in the X forum about delivering 1000 per week. There's a lot of good info there.

 

[Xpert]

This guy is making a bunch of assumptions based on nothing as far as I can tell. Kind of infuriating to listen to.

Clearly he is using their star power to manipulate his short trade. Claiming both supply and demand issues without any proof to back it up. He may have made some quick and dirty $$$ Covering his short after the tweet.

 

[Fallenone]

"Halt" was a little exaggerated. My point was Buddyroe's observation of a much slowed down expansion of superchargers may be the result of management trying to put out nice figures on Q1 report. That was my speculation a month ago, when I was still thinking 2000 X or more for Q1 is possible. This and 14k S, with a lot of tightened spending, could potentially let them be free cash flow positive in Q1, very very hard, but possible. But then in Q4 2015 CC the new CFO scrapped FCF and introduced some new metrics. Combined with the slower than expected (my expectation) ramp of X, I'm not sticking to my previous Q1 FCF+ expectation any more.

Supercharger construction is not stopped. It does appear to have slowed after 33 new sites in December, only 9 in January and 8 for February. It could be slowing to manage cash for profitable Q1, or aligning global strategies. More emphasis on destination charging at hotels and urban garages.
The interesting thing will be Model S production numbers and if they can hit at least 2000 X deliveries for Q1. Got to feel for the Sig owners with the nagging issues that are not resolved yet. It does seem some process is not nailed down yet, or quality of a couple\few items are not consistent yet. Hoping for more information from Tesla is not likely until after the issue is resolved. SpaceX is the same way. They solve it and focus internally until resolution. Since they continue to build new cars, it is likely there are still some issues with the front window and\or the falcon door settings. Based on recent feedback, it seems the production cars are being completed faster than the Sigs, when production issues were apparently more numerous. Once the sigs are cleared in the next couple of weeks, that should help the service centers get more productive and increase delivery rates significantly. If that happens, then X=3000 deliveries for Q1 seems possible.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

EDIT: Also wanted to add that MANY people are reporting that the cars at the "Meet the Model There are videos on youtube of rain pouring in the car with the FaWD's up.

Thank's Buddyroe for mentioning FWD issues in rain, video.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Based on data provider Markit, short interest was 26% yesterday, down from 27% couple of days ago.
Short Sellers Pile In to Tesla - MoneyBeat - WSJ

To put that in the context with number we hear more often, this is 34M shares short yesterday, compared with 35M few days ago.
Compared to ~31M Feb 12th (official #), when price was much lower, and we were all amazed short interest rose.

I don't know how much to trust this data. I had expected short interest to drop in the second part of February. However, people pay for this data, so if it's true, increasing short interest while price advanced, makes me think we may have in store real short squeeze soon.

But then I'm biased, being on this site and all

 

[hobbes]

Most people on here didn't even know the supercharger build-out was coming to a grinding halt back in January.

Because it hasn´t. Base your claims on facts, otherwise one might think you are spreading FUD.

Source: supercharge.info