Yes, and the "rain pouring in" was on exactly one car, with a missing seal... admittedly a quality control fault, but not a design problem.
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Yes, and the "rain pouring in" was on exactly one car, with a missing seal... admittedly a quality control fault, but not a design problem.
...But then I'm biased, being on this site and all
Please, this site has been the playground for galloping bears for months. Someone dares to come on and post a bullish prediction and the knives come out immediately. So much talk about how this is a bullish echo chamber but it hasn't been in a long time.
Buddyroe
Active Member
[Moderator deleted]...Tell me how many construction starts there have been in the U.S. in February. [Mpoderator deleted]...Also, what was the lowest number of construction starts in any month in 2014 and 2015.
I'm posting on facts based on monthly stats over 3 years.[Moderator deleted]
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Agreed, but I'd also add 4) weather! Construction of everything tends to slow down in December, January and February. Winter tends have that effect...
I comment only slightly sarcastically...I wouldn't put too much into a 2 month trend. The rolling 6 month or 12 month averages of supercharger openings are still very healthy.
Just look at the charts on supercharge.info. Tesla opened 261 superchargers in 2015 and 265 in 2014. I fully expect them to open a similar number this year.
Plus, that data doesn't count $ invested in expanding existing supercharger sites. They've definitely been doing that as they continue to sell into their strongest markets.
(If you're reading this post, supercharge.info, number of actual superchargers (and not just sites) would be pretty cool to add to your data set).
The ST thread needs balance. If it appears to be too bearish then the pendulum has swung too far. Realize though that it is probably because many people were talking about how 'we will never see this price for TSLA again'...buy/buy/buy. Repeated at 230, 220, 210..........150. Heck, I admit my PT during the drop was $180...I missed too....
The pendulum will swing back when we finally see proof of the X ramp and model3 reveal.
Buddyroe
Active Member
Just send Blueshift a message or an email. He's a member of TMC and posts frequently.
"Short interest is currently 26.5 percent of outstanding shares, up from 23 percent at the start of the year, and the cost of borrowing shares has more than doubled in that time, according to Markit Securities Finance."
from http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pressure-builds-against-short-sellers-232012494.html
I think that AlMc and a few others like to use the statement "Longs make money, shorts make money, pigs get slaughtered". In this case you're seeing surging short interest at a time when it makes sense to take your profits, if any, and run. You can see how traders get lured into the "it's easy money" and "everybody's doing it" trap. I'm trying to file this lesson away so that when we've run up a to nosebleeding high stock prices with TSLA I won't be sitting on my calls, fat, dumb and happy.
from http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pressure-builds-against-short-sellers-232012494.html
I think that AlMc and a few others like to use the statement "Longs make money, shorts make money, pigs get slaughtered". In this case you're seeing surging short interest at a time when it makes sense to take your profits, if any, and run. You can see how traders get lured into the "it's easy money" and "everybody's doing it" trap. I'm trying to file this lesson away so that when we've run up a to nosebleeding high stock prices with TSLA I won't be sitting on my calls, fat, dumb and happy.
They have been trying to get Harrisburg, PA under lease and now permitted for a long time. This one is important to go west-east across Pennsylvania. Also need a couple along US80 through PA as well. They are coming I am told, just not leased and permitted yet.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
larmor
Active Member
TM product is so compelling and high value that the SP is only now a marker of market security or insecurity. The product is expensive, but is compelling. The MS is a worthy competitor to high performance luxury cars. The MX is delayed, since they want to get it right. It will be a compelling alternative to other SUVs GL, cayenne, except cayenne has only 5 seats.
Early adoption of MS and MX is basically funding the model 3, reference last CC. The only question remains, how much stuff will M3 have and how low can they get the battery price?
Early adoption of MS and MX is basically funding the model 3, reference last CC. The only question remains, how much stuff will M3 have and how low can they get the battery price?
I've said it before and I'll say it again. Only Tesla knows for sure what superchargers are being worked on. They don't announce anything. You are the one claiming, without any factual basis, that they aren't building any. When someone first said this a month or so ago, we found at least three in the next couple of weeks that were being worked on that no-one here knew about.
How exactly are you supposing that we will do our research? On the other hand, what is your research? Please provide a list of all the superchargers that you know for a fact have not been started.
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They test water penetration on Model S, I'd be surprised if that's not the case for Model X. So they probably shipped those cars out without water test (or with temp seals for water test), then service center was supposed to install them but didn't (or installed incorrectly).
That just shows how messy this whole thing is when you have to make cars with some small part missing.
Buddyroe
Active Member
Here's a piece of REAL data for you. There hasn't been an opening in the U.S in 22 days now - the LONGEST time without an opening in over 2 years. Hmmmm.
And did you say three in the U.S. that were found that were not known about? How is that possible when only 2 TOTAL have been started in 2015? The only one that was "found" recently (one of those 2 starts in 2016) in the U.S. was Champaign, IL. And when it was found a couple of days ago, construction was nearly complete - evidence that it probably started in late December. Most likely, only one supercharger has started construction in the U.S in 2016 (Slidell, LA).
I hate to tell you, but if you REALLY kept up with the supercharger build out like some of us do (I check the status of EVERY supercharger EVERY day), you would know that 95% of all superchargers in the U.S are found the day they pull the construction equipment onto the location. The reason that happens is because there are people searching diligently for permits - when permits are found, Blueshift adds the location to his site, and a thread is started for that site (if it hadn't already been). Once the permit is even applied for, people know the location. If you go read the supercharger threads (hint, you can access the TMC threads for each supercharger right through the supercharge.info map) for the sites that are under permit, you will see people reading their county's meeting minutes and permit approvals to to see if Tesla's was approved. And once it is approved, people will constantly "ride by" the site for evidence of any construction equipment, and in particular, crates with "Tesla" written on them (or just the emblem).
There are people ALL OVER these supercharger permits, construction, and openings. VERY rarely do you suddenly see one that no one knew about - maybe 5% tops. And besides, even if you just look at the average starts per month over last 2 years (about 8 per month) and then look at 2016 (one per month in both Jan and Feb), that alone will tell you that the build out has almost stopped in the U.S. Yes, in other countries, people are not as diligent about hunting them and most are found just before or after they go live. But, that simply is NOT the case in the U.S.
And another thing about the "Open" superchargers chart that someone posted earlier - openings will,of course, lag the construction starts. The construction starts are the real indicator because without construction, there will be no openings (I know, you think that most superchargers go COMPLETELY unnoticed - NOT). If the same chart available for construction starts, you would see a long flat line for 2016. But, just wait til April and that "Open" chart will have flattened out too
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
What I have a problem with is bullish predictions that aren't backed up by good evidence. I have exactly the same problem with bearish predictions that are backed by nothing but panic. Trading on hope, either way, has a high probability of disaster for the vast majority of people.
What drives the stock irrefutably upwards is good numbers. When Tesla made a profit in early 2013 on Model S sales, the good financial result was impossible to deny, which sent the stock roaring upwards. Bulls here were able to predict this (and profit greatly) by piecing together VIN and delivery info from the Model S forum, and deducing that Tesla would exceed expectations. Fast forward to 2015 and early 2016, and the indicators are neutral to negative. Tesla barely met guidance for 2015, and the Model X ramp has frankly been a :cursing:. Things will reverse very quickly in the next quarter or two IF Tesla manages to stop :cursing:ing around with Model X and actually get it to a decent sustained run rate. In this scenario, high growth in revenue and sustained margins will result in shorts getting slammed again just like 2013.
On the plus side, Model X has gotten largely positive response from owners (with some notable exceptions of people who got cars with QC problems). The product is great. Tesla needs to prove they can build and ship it in quantity. You can bet there will be utter hell to pay for Tesla management at the shareholder meeting in June if they don't get this resolved.
Interesting data point. I think some covered shorts reenter their position after $55 rally from pre ER low $141. This might be coincident to Citron's new short position too.
Based on data provider Markit, short interest was 26% yesterday, down from 27% couple of days ago.
Short Sellers Pile In to Tesla - MoneyBeat - WSJ
To put that in the context with number we hear more often, this is 34M shares short yesterday, compared with 35M few days ago.
Compared to ~31M Feb 12th (official #), when price was much lower, and we were all amazed short interest rose.
I don't know how much to trust this data. I had expected short interest to drop in the second part of February. However, people pay for this data, so if it's true, increasing short interest while price advanced, makes me think we may have in store real short squeeze soon.
But then I'm biased, being on this site and all
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
Totally confused on the Damiler strategy. Article from Inside EV's from the same CEO said there was massive over capacity in battery cells.
Daimler CEO Says Theres Massive Overcapacity In Battery Cell Market
What am I missing? Maybe he woke up this morning and changed his mind or the Inside EV article mis-quoted him?
The most important short term catalyst is model X ramp up for both production and delivery. For the latter, average investors should be able to sense that from model X forum. But frankly speaking, it's not happening yet.
Krugerrand
Meow
We get it, you're having a coronary about it (and exhibiting some obsessive compulsive, stalkerish type of traits = every supercharger, every day, eh?). Let's revisit the topic on Dec 31, 2016, instead of weekly, k? Then we'll have the facts about whether or not Tesla has abandoned expansion of the SuperCharger Network.
@buddyroe Yes, the growth rate has really slowed, but no, we don't know the exact reason. They may be focusing on increasing the number of stalls at each site, which won't be reflected in the superchare.info numbers. Maybe there are supply constraints or a new technology like liquid-cooled cables coming out.
I will also mention that Redondo Beach and Burbank weren't discovered until almost complete, and that's in SoCal.
I will also mention that Redondo Beach and Burbank weren't discovered until almost complete, and that's in SoCal.
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