JRP3
Hyperactive Member
So you're building Powerpacks and Powerwalls in your basement? Because the GF is.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
So you're building Powerpacks and Powerwalls in your basement? Because the GF is.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
My thoughts: I have always been skeptical of big claims, so I think it is helpful to have people here at TMC to keep things real. People know that I often clash with the super-optimistic members in the investors' forum.
What I don't think is helpful are posts like this:
This does not add anything substantive that can be used for investing strategy.
Actually, I think the 17k delieveries in Q2 maybe is sandbagging it. Producing 20k and deliver 17k, the 85% delivery ratio is unseen before. Usually it's closer to 95% IIRC. Yes there will be Model X going to showrooms but that's 200 max. Yes there are logistics for shipping them outside of NA but unless the market of Model X dries up so fast they can still ship to NA like they usually do at the end of quarter. Currently the highest VIN I've seen is 6000+, adding founders and sigs, there would be more than 8000 VINs out there. Minus the ~3000 they delivered, there are still ~5000 to be delivered in Q2 and beyond for sure and most of these are NA orders. Even if they don't get a single new order of Model X, this should be enough to go higher than 17k.
I agree. It's more difficult to spread FUD and have it influence investors and the stock price when we're in an uptrend momentum. Rather, these FUDsters need to ride on an existing downward momentum to obtain maximum effect, and can easily put extra emphasis on the "bad" news that already came that caused the downtrend in the first place. In an uptrend, the momentum is strong enough that any FUD would unlikely make a difference, so they don't try and just keep quiet.
I've found that in times of near stock price bottoming, many bears become louder and post more frequently on forums. If you look at Seeking Mediocrity, the usual perma-bears (Anton Whaleman, Lunatic Thought, Rot Pie, Andrea Hopf, ValueSeeker, Tales From The Past, Cparmarpee), have been out in full force this past week.
Remind me what assembling battery packs has to do with cell production?
I'm tripling my basement's cell production tomorrow. I've acquired my neighbor's basement and should be up to 800% of zero next week.
Any reporters wishing to walk on my roof should call ahead.
I would invite you to watch the How Its Made Dream Car Factories: Model S to help answer that question.
I'd also like to remind you that every ICE built also has to have a small version of this motor built just to start the ICE!
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Yep. Agreed. Tesla/Elon said on call what I assumed all along. They only need the single GF in Reno and the single factory (Fremont) to get to 1M cars/year.
They'll be a lot of talk about new GFs and new Factories in the near term (media etc).
Read My Lips: No new factories needed
New factories are NOT on the critical path to 2017-2020 production volumes.
Last edited:
You are just repeating the line Tesla gave you.
No one runs three full shifts because it doesn't work. Toyota is saying they might try it again, but they are far more advanced than Tesla in factory management. Toyota also would likely not try three full shifts with American workers.
Tesla is talking about a million cars with existing factories because 1) Even raising a couple billion to accelerate the M3 is really hard, and 2) They are obviously negotiating the price of the new investments and want to use the million car number to justify their price.
I think in a few years Tesla can probably get the capital they need to build new factories, but perhaps not with Musk and allies maintaining adequate control of the board. Jobs didn't maintain control, and he was in a much less capital intensive business.
Absolutely, and I think there is also a quite good chance they already have the capital plan worked out and that plan is not much dependent on high share price. So the two scenarios are then vastly different, one being a large raise that causes dilution for adding more factories and the other being basically production lines in Fremont and continuation with GF 1 with comparably low dilution.
Panasonic themselves might have been able to lower the prices so for Model 3's that are not the base model maybe it can be produced without GF cell production at scale.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Right on. People decide to buy stock by looking exclusively at the situation today. By definition, nobody can predict the future because it hasn't happened yet. And absolutely anything can happen.
I mean, take hockey. If you look at where the puck is going to be, how could you possibly hit it right now? 'Cause it's not there yet, it's somewhere else. And in the next second it could be literally anywhere. You just can't know.
Your basement is awesome, btw. Keep it up.
Luckily both Toyota and General Motors are both clueless about how to make 1 million cars a year.
Because if they were not, they would have never abandoned the California Fremont facility for greener pastures.
There is something magic with the California Government. Manufacturing businesses thrive here because we have the best government money can buy. As long as you pay your bills to the legislature, you can build a freakin' toxic waste dump in a water reservoir. But if you don't wet their beaks frequently, Elon will find a horse's head in the foot of his sleeping bag.
Once Tesla Motors does not behave exactly how California wants them to, it's curtains for production in this state. Nearly every large mfr who was headquartered in California is gone.
I will explain why I accelerated my share purchase instead of waiting for lower levels. It's mainly because I have never seen a 20 bagger with such high possibility. I have never seen a great CEO like Elon. I don't want to miss the boat.
A thought regarding the 2018 500k production. I am confident Elon and the crew will make it happen. It's doable. This is not a pull-in of schedule. It's an increase of production. There is a big difference.
In product development, lots of things have to happen at different stages. When we need to pull-in a schedule for a few months, it's usually very difficult. Because everything have to take their time to happen, development has to be done, issues have to be addressed. Formal validation and testing can not start until we have the parts and systems designed or built.
Before this pull-in, the schedule was already there: starting production in late 2017. Now it's still starting in late 2017, maybe pulled-in by a few weeks.
What's really changed is to increase production by a few fold. It's still very difficult, but Elon can get it done. Lets say there are 300 suppliers with 6000 parts. Majority of them can increase the supply when they get more than 12 months' heads up. There are a few dozen parts probably need hard work, a few will be real pain. In this case, I think the biggest challenge is the battery supply. In stead of questioning if they can produce 500k in 2018, The real question is can they get that much battery supply. I think Elon probably has checked with suppliers and Gigafactory1. He knows how many he can get from suppliers, and how many G1 can produce.
Tesla is planning to produce 1 million cars in 2020. In my view, the 50% growth will continue, and Tesla is likely to sell 6 million cars in 2025 (S,3,X,Y,pickup,roadster,4,Z). They will have similar amount of sales from energy storage by 2025 (passed the hockey stick tipping point). In addition, the Tesla bus service is likely to come online in 3~5 years. In my view this is easy for Elon, and the profit will be large. It's a service business model with wide margin. With that in mind, I had to accelerate my share purchase plan. What happens if the stock goes lower? My plan is if the drop is small, I don't care. If the drop is big, I will look for opportunities to add leaps. I will be happy either way.
A thought regarding the 2018 500k production. I am confident Elon and the crew will make it happen. It's doable. This is not a pull-in of schedule. It's an increase of production. There is a big difference.
In product development, lots of things have to happen at different stages. When we need to pull-in a schedule for a few months, it's usually very difficult. Because everything have to take their time to happen, development has to be done, issues have to be addressed. Formal validation and testing can not start until we have the parts and systems designed or built.
Before this pull-in, the schedule was already there: starting production in late 2017. Now it's still starting in late 2017, maybe pulled-in by a few weeks.
What's really changed is to increase production by a few fold. It's still very difficult, but Elon can get it done. Lets say there are 300 suppliers with 6000 parts. Majority of them can increase the supply when they get more than 12 months' heads up. There are a few dozen parts probably need hard work, a few will be real pain. In this case, I think the biggest challenge is the battery supply. In stead of questioning if they can produce 500k in 2018, The real question is can they get that much battery supply. I think Elon probably has checked with suppliers and Gigafactory1. He knows how many he can get from suppliers, and how many G1 can produce.
Tesla is planning to produce 1 million cars in 2020. In my view, the 50% growth will continue, and Tesla is likely to sell 6 million cars in 2025 (S,3,X,Y,pickup,roadster,4,Z). They will have similar amount of sales from energy storage by 2025 (passed the hockey stick tipping point). In addition, the Tesla bus service is likely to come online in 3~5 years. In my view this is easy for Elon, and the profit will be large. It's a service business model with wide margin. With that in mind, I had to accelerate my share purchase plan. What happens if the stock goes lower? My plan is if the drop is small, I don't care. If the drop is big, I will look for opportunities to add leaps. I will be happy either way.
LargeHamCollider
Battery cells != scalable
I'd like to know how falsifiable some of the views of the bears here are.
@tftf if Tesla produces (and sells) more than 500,000 cars in 2018 and is (just) cash flow positive what do you think a proper valuation would be? How about if they made 350,000? or 400,000? or 600,000?
@electracity what do you think a proper valuation would be under the above conditions?
Personally I'd go short at the present valuation if Elon lost control of the board and revenue growth fell below 20% over the next year or two.
@tftf if Tesla produces (and sells) more than 500,000 cars in 2018 and is (just) cash flow positive what do you think a proper valuation would be? How about if they made 350,000? or 400,000? or 600,000?
@electracity what do you think a proper valuation would be under the above conditions?
Personally I'd go short at the present valuation if Elon lost control of the board and revenue growth fell below 20% over the next year or two.
Last edited:
+10000
This is the most sensible and well written de-risking strategy post I have ever seen.
For anyone frustrated or fearful about TSLA >SHORT TERM STOCK PRICE MOVEMENTS< Just pick a LONGER TIMESCALE and be happy.
Just forget about the naysayers seeking to manipulate short term price movements with fear uncertainty and doubt about Tesla's Long Term future. It is impossible to deny Tesla's customers their cars unless capitalism itself folds, no unless human civilization folds and it is impossible to deny Tesla's first mover advantage because its a matter of historical fact. Even Communism would deliver the cars at this point - more likely just write Elon the check. These simple underpinnings are obvious to more than sufficient money to seal the deal. Elon himself could bank roll it from SpaceX if necessary - which by the way is the ultimate negotiating position to raise funds, the stock market be damned - and it isn't even close to necessary.
Last edited:
Do we know for certain that there will be significant CAPex spending in Q2? I am of the opinion that they will make Q2 the watershed quarter to prove that Tesla is profitable based on Q2 deliveries+TE. As vgrinshpun projected based on conservative assumptions, it is indeed possible.
So could the plan be, silence the doubters in Q2, SP skyrockets, then get investors on the table for a new offering and Capex begins Q3 and onwards?
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
This is certainly a possibility.
They simply need to hold off major CapEx for 7 more weeks till qtr end.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Remind me what cell production has to do with your original post claiming battery manufacturing? Keep trying.
I can't help thinking that this buying opportunity ($210) is even better than the most recent buying opportunity ($140s). The 140s opportunity was one of the best. But this $210 opportunity, I think, is probably better because it's POST-Model 3 reveal with 400k reservations, which proves demand high enough to fuel Tesla growth for the decade to come.
It's always easy for new money to think like that. I bought a bunch of 2017 leaps a while back, 200 strike at a price of about 50. I am worried about the play here. Before ER the game was obvious. Then suddenly management chose to change the play for worse. Now I don't know what to expect.
callmesam
Member
70,000 Model S 90K ASP = $6.3B
80,000 Model X 100K ASP = $8B
350,000 Model 3 42K ASP = $14.7B
$29,000,000,000 revenue with 24% margins (Fleet average) = $7B profit x 20 mid multiple = Enterprise value of $140B
Oops. Forgot Tesla Energy.
Much simpler manufacturing. No moving parts.
Are there other valuation methodologies? Certainly.
80,000 Model X 100K ASP = $8B
350,000 Model 3 42K ASP = $14.7B
$29,000,000,000 revenue with 24% margins (Fleet average) = $7B profit x 20 mid multiple = Enterprise value of $140B
Oops. Forgot Tesla Energy.
Much simpler manufacturing. No moving parts.
Are there other valuation methodologies? Certainly.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
