Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Interesting article. First I've heard of NextEV inc. Any possibility the company has ties to Apple? (NeXT)?

Tesla's success sparks China's electric cars race - Chinadaily.com.cn

 

[ggr]

You might want to pass that information on to Tesla because they don't do it that way, and until they do it is correct.

There are photos that clearly show staggered rows. @wk057 is a great resource.

In my post above, where I said that the spaces scale just like the radius of the cells, I had forgotten that there is space, about 2mm, between them. Now, if Tesla makes the cells bigger, the real question is whether they increase the space between or not. If they don't, then the overall density of the pack increases (both weight and energy density). Since I believe the space is there for circulating coolant, maybe they don't need to increase it.

 

[Fallenone]

Interesting article. First I've heard of NextEV inc. Any possibility the company has ties to Apple? (NeXT)?

Tesla's success sparks China's electric cars race - Chinadaily.com.cn

I don't think so. And they don't need to have ties to Apple since they have Tencent (mega company in social media area, 200B market cap) behind them.

 

[FredTMC]

Yep. Certainly less than $190/kWh since that's what Jeff Evanson said

 

[Julian Cox]

There are photos that clearly show staggered rows. @wk057 is a great resource.

In my post above, where I said that the spaces scale just like the radius of the cells, I had forgotten that there is space, about 2mm, between them. Now, if Tesla makes the cells bigger, the real question is whether they increase the space between or not. If they don't, then the overall density of the pack increases (both weight and energy density). Since I believe the space is there for circulating coolant, maybe they don't need to increase it.

Dunno if this helps but just to point out that the chief effect of larger Gigafactory cells is the extra height (about 10%) all chemistry so about 15% more chemistry considering the effect of the top and bottom of the cell is diluted as a percentage of the total. Similar thing with the extra radius, lots more volume of active chemistry for a little more circumference. Between these things there is a fair shot at getting close to 20-30% extra active vs passive material in the pack before factoring in chrmistry improvements as well.

 

[ggr]

Dunno if this helps but just to point out that the chief effect of larger Gigafactory cells is the extra height (about 10%) all chemistry so about 15% more chemistry considering the effect of the top and bottom of the cell is diluted as a percentage of the total. Similar thing with the extra radius, lots more volume of active chemistry for a little more circumference. Between these things there is a fair shot at getting close to 20-30% extra active vs passive material in the pack before factoring in chrmistry improvements as well.

Of course if they change the height of the pack, they can get more capacity. If they make it longer or wider that will happen too. The former is possible I guess, but the latter really isn't, since it interacts with wheelbase and track. I will add geometry to the list of things that you don't know as much about as you seem to think you do. Thank you.

 

[Julian Cox]

Of course if they change the height of the pack, they can get more capacity. If they make it longer or wider that will happen too. The former is possible I guess, but the latter really isn't, since it interacts with wheelbase and track. I will add geometry to the list of things that you don't know as much about as you seem to think you do. Thank you.

Sigh. The extra height of the cells vs the 18650 fits in the existing pack cavity. The extra circumference has minimal impact on cell count. Possibly none.

We were discussing cells not packs.

Your geometry and comprehension error I'm afraid - and may I add a rather embarrasing one too so - enjoy eating crow.

 

[Vitold]

Pollution is free. Who do you currently pay to buy some pollution and how much does it currently cost you?

If someone including a government started selling pollution how would they establish ownership of that pollution in order to claim that it was theirs to sell?

If a value is placed on Polution why should a taxpayer not pay in pollution instead of cash? Here, have mine!

Need to be clear about this. Charging for pollution is a fine. Fines are a matter of criminal justice, not taxation. Participating in crime for profit is not what you want in a government. There are far more sensible ideas than this. Like all of them.

Pollution is not free, it cost people's health (and if it does not affect you directly it costs you through higher insurance premiums).

Myself I very much dislike PCBs, lead, arsenic and mercury with my fish thank you very much.

 

[L-P-G]

VP of engineering just sold a thousand shares yesterday, 4k form was just posted

 

[Sparky]

First post in here.
I enjoy this thread much more without the politics and since it's highly doubtful anyone will convince anyone else to vote this way or that I'm hoping we'll shelve the OT politics. Of course if anyone has predicted outcome in November and how they read the effect on TSLA short term, I'm all in.
Two days ago, based on reading discussions here, I sold 50% at $254 and voted with my $ for DTU. I'll move more depending on the CC results. Just trying to get back OT. Thanks for all the great analyses and counter arguments.

 

[MitchJi]

There are photos that clearly show staggered rows. @wk057 is a great resource.

Its a little difficult to see the exact cell edges under the cover, but you are correct, definitely staggered. I don't think that makes a difference in the 81/100 ratio in my example.

If we use 4mm (it looks like that's a high number) for the space saved by the stagger instead of 81 (9 x 9 x 20mm) vs (10 x 10 x 18mm) we would have (9 x 9 x 16mm) vs (10 x 10 x 18mm). 9 x 16 = 144, and 10 x 14 = 140. Almost the same number.

Endless-sphere.com • View topic - Tesla Model S 18650 Cell Test Data

I have not measured exactly, but the cells are less then 1mm apart in parallel banks. For series separation, it's like 1-1.5 mm. Even across the heat exchanger tube, the cells lines are only spaced by only ~4mm. The heat exchanger tube is also 1.) wrapped in Kapton 2.) Wrapped in some unknown secondary tape 3.) Finally, wrapped in some grey thermal material.

In my post above, where I said that the spaces scale just like the radius of the cells, I had forgotten that there is space, about 2mm, between them. Now, if Tesla makes the cells bigger, the real question is whether they increase the space between or not. If they don't, then the overall density of the pack increases (both weight and energy density). Since I believe the space is there for circulating coolant, maybe they don't need to increase it.

I don't see why they would need to increase the space, so the overall density of the pack won't change that much except for the height.

Dunno if this helps but just to point out that
1. the chief effect of larger Gigafactory cells is the extra height (about 10%) all chemistry so about 15% more chemistry considering the effect of the top and bottom of the cell is diluted as a percentage of the total.

2. Similar thing with the extra radius, lots more volume of active chemistry for a little more circumference.

3. Between these things there is a fair shot at getting close to 20-30% extra active vs passive material in the pack before factoring in chrmistry improvements as well.

1. The correct number is 7.6%, and the total will be very close to the same.

2. The effect of the extra radius will be negligible at the pack level. About 20% more capacity per cell, but close to the same reduction in the number of cells.

3. Between these things you can get up to a maximum of about an 10% extra active material in the pack.

 

[Yonki]

1. The correct number is 7.6%, and the total will be very close to the same.

18 to 20 mm = (20-18)/18 = 11.1%. How do you get 7.6%?

 

[ggr]

I'm not being a dick - seriously.

 

[ggr]

Its a little difficult to see the exact cell edges under the cover, but you are correct, definitely staggered. I don't think that makes a difference in the 81/100 ratio in my example.

Yes, what I was saying is that, staggered or not, it makes no difference. But the post I replied to insisted that they were laid out in squares, and they clearly are not.

If we use 4mm (it looks like that's a high number) for the space saved by the stagger instead of 81 (9 x 9 x 20mm) vs (10 x 10 x 18mm) we would have (9 x 9 x 16mm) vs (10 x 10 x 18mm). 9 x 16 = 144, and 10 x 14 = 140. Almost the same number.

Endless-sphere.com • View topic - Tesla Model S 18650 Cell Test Data


I don't see why they would need to increase the space, so the overall density of the pack won't change that much except for the height.

1. The correct number is 7.6%, and the total will be very close to the same.

2. The effect of the extra radius will be negligible at the pack level. About 20% more capacity per cell, but close to the same reduction in the number of cells.

3. Between these things you can get up to a maximum of about an 10% extra active material in the pack.

I don't disagree with your conclusion.

 

[Intl Professor]

One of the first questions asked of Elon Musk in Norway recently: "If we get rid of oil, how are we going to fund the welfare state?"

Seriously.

The sovereign fund is heavily invested in London real estate, for example. And they already have a heavy tax schedule.

 

[Xpert]

First post in here.
I enjoy this thread much more without the politics and since it's highly doubtful anyone will convince anyone else to vote this way or that I'm hoping we'll shelve the OT politics. Of course if anyone has predicted outcome in November and how they read the effect on TSLA short term, I'm all in.
Two days ago, based on reading discussions here, I sold 50% at $254 and voted with my $ for DTU. I'll move more depending on the CC results. Just trying to get back OT. Thanks for all the great analyses and counter arguments.

Well done! Check out my lucky trades today since i got bored waiting for TSLA ER.

 

[MitchJi]

18 to 20 mm = (20-18)/18 = 11.1%. How do you get 7.6%?

That's the difference in height, difference between 65 and 70 = 5/65 = .076.

I explained very thoroughly that there is almost no overall increase due to the radius because the increased capacity of the,individual cells is almost exactly offset by the fact that the cells require more space.

And Pi x radius squared means the increase in volume is about 20 percent, not 11 %.

 

[DrJohnM]

The area of a circle is pi squared x the radius. So we need to compare pi x 9 squared vs pi x 10 squared. For simplicity we can eliminate pi because used the same multiple won't effect the relative percentages, so:
9 squared equals 81 vs 10 squared equals 100, so the smaller cells have 81% of the capacity of the larger cells, which is a substantial difference.

But the area required for 100 of the 18 mm round cells is a square, 180 mm x 180 mm. In that area you can only fit 9 x 9 of the 20 mm cells (81 cells) . So only 81% of the larger cells will fit in the area required for the smaller cells. In other words the net increase in the pack capacity, due to the larger diameter of the cells will be close to zero.

Do you consider the cooling network of pipes. You only have 8 of those in the example you give rather than 9 for the smaller cells. Overall, that could add up to a small % increase in the number of new format batteries that can be installed in a pack (assuming that the cooling pipes are the same size).

 

[Hogfighter]

Exactly how do battery layouts, politics and pollution relate to the short term movement of TSLA?

 

[jhm]

Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

Biomass could kick the **** out of natural gas this year.

Flush twice. It's a long way to the power plant.