Thanks, Mitch! Just a minuscule hair-split, further off-topic: Although the cells add up to the same external measurements, don't forget the housekeeping needs, cooling etc. Fewer cells in the grid means a little less space taken by those pipes.Tesla's Battery Pack Costs Are Cheaper Than You Think -- The Motley Fool
Something that I have not seen anyone talk about is Bereisa's (he should have an excellent idea) estimate of $215/kWh for GM's pack related costs, $215 - $145 = $60 = 41%!
Some implications of that:
1. I suspected a high number because GM chose to reveal cell costs rather than pack costs but wow! Battery cell costs are a huge percentage of EV costs. How can GM even dream about being competitive with Tesla with ~40% pack related costs?
2. My earlier conservative cost estimates for Tesla's current packs ranged from $165 per kWh to $190 per kWh. Even if you use $190 - 35% (30% GF + 5% due to moderate cell improvements) Tesla's pack costs will be a maximum of $123.50 per kWh, all of these figures are conservative. So a 60 kWh pack will cost Tesla under $7,410 and will cost GM about $12,900. Tesla's actual pack costs will probably be about 50% of GM's, or close to $100 per kWh.
3. I don't think that Bereisa was being dishonest. I think that he and GM smugly believe (or believed) that they have excellent pack prices.
I'm in the process of converting my big pack cost post to a pdf, and I'm updating it at the same time. I think that the following is an important update/correction:
Larger Cell Format:
I have wondered why I have seen statements that the new larger cell format would lead to 30% increased pack energy density. It will not. But it will lead to an across the board increase in total pack energy of by 7.6%, plus
the “moderate improvements” (5-8%) due to improved cell chemistry, so the total increase will be at least 12-15%.
I think that the source of the 30% confusion is the following statement by EM:
Elon Musk - Chairman and CEO
Tesla seems to have decided to use 20700 cylindrical cells with dimensions 20 mm x 70 mm instead of the 18650 that is 18 mm x 65 mm. Because all of the Tesla packs consist of modules, of cells that are vertical, one layer deep, the limitation of the number of cells, in their packs are the length and the width.
The area of a circle is pi squared x the radius. So we need to compare pi x 9 squared vs pi x 10 squared. For simplicity we can eliminate pi because used the same multiple won't effect the relative percentages, so:
9 squared equals 81 vs 10 squared equals 100, so the smaller cells have 81% of the capacity of the larger cells, which is a substantial difference.
But the area required for 100 of the 18 mm round cells is a square, 180 mm x 180 mm. In that area you can only fit 9 x 9 of the 20 mm cells (81 cells) . So only 81% of the larger cells will fit in the area required for the smaller cells. In other words the net increase in the pack capacity, due to the larger diameter of the cells will be close to zero.
But for the height we have 66mm vs 70 mm (5/65) is 7.6%. Which means that by switching to cells with the new format all of Tesla’s pack capacities will increase by 7.6%. So 70 kWh packs will increase to 75.3 kWh. That does not include the “moderate improvements” (5-8%) due to improved cell chemistry. For a total increase of 12-15%.
Another reason they are increasing the cell size is to reduce the cost, probably largely due to the decreased pack complexity:
JB Straubel - Chief Technology Officer
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Excellent post
I just wondered about this - it seems you are assuming that within the pack each cell touches its neighbors at the widest part - a square matrix, but doesn't each row in the pack have an offset from its immediate neighbor rows, and hence they are packed more closely.
I don't know if that makes a difference with your 100/81 ratio at all, but wanted to at least raise the query?
mejojo
Active Member
Could you possibly strip this down to a straightforward explanation of your point? I am not understanding how increasing taxes on dirtier fuels, if that is what you are suggesting, is providing permission to pollute for FREE.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Call and ER won't be boring... That's for sure.
Another way I like to think about this ER is:
1) If tesla is interested in a capital raise anytime in the next three months (before Q2 ER), then they'll probably be motivated to support the SP. I think the prior cap raise was around $240ish. Never good to do a 'down round'. Therefore, it's likely Mgmt will give clarity on future production ramp plans.
2) Recent tweets/comments from Elon: "unwise to short TSLA" and "need to rethink production plans" (RE model 3 reservations blow-out)
3) Recent comments by Mgmt such as reveal this week by IR (JeffE) on UBS call that MS 'All-in" pack cost is < $190/kWh. This was always closely guarded.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Another article on why Apple should buy Tesla (Washington Post. Bezos owned)
Why Tesla is the spark that Apple needs
I don't think Elon and Board would ever agree to be sold to Apple. There's bad blood there and Elon wants to retain control.
I'd be fine with a minority investment by Google Or Apple.
Why Tesla is the spark that Apple needs
I don't think Elon and Board would ever agree to be sold to Apple. There's bad blood there and Elon wants to retain control.
I'd be fine with a minority investment by Google Or Apple.
jesselivenomore
Member
Some huge earnings beats afterhours to counteract that Icahn/AAPL sell off.
dandurston
Member
"But the area required for 100 of the 18 mm round cells is a square, 180 mm x 180 mm......In other words the net increase in the pack capacity, due to the larger diameter of the cells will be close to zero."
This is wrong. The cells don't need a square because you can offset the rows slightly so they mesh together.
This is wrong. The cells don't need a square because you can offset the rows slightly so they mesh together.
It doesn't matter that the rows are offset (triangular versus square pattern). Ignoring edge effects, the gaps scale up the same amount as the cells, so the proportional wasted space doesn't change.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Pollution is free. Who do you currently pay to buy some pollution and how much does it currently cost you?
If someone including a government started selling pollution how would they establish ownership of that pollution in order to claim that it was theirs to sell?
If a value is placed on Polution why should a taxpayer not pay in pollution instead of cash? Here, have mine!
Need to be clear about this. Charging for pollution is a fine. Fines are a matter of criminal justice, not taxation. Participating in crime for profit is not what you want in a government. There are far more sensible ideas than this. Like all of them.
$35k... we must be correct if we get the same answer right? (I did this table a long time ago)
I was attempting to solve a puzzle based on a variety of facts. Things like "we don't lose money on the 40kWh" so, vehicle margin must be <0. We knew about what the vehicle margin was, about what the battery packs were. working from the outside in I ended up with 35k for the middle.
Now we know the pack cost is lower than this, though this might have been right at the time.
I sorta back calculated from a basic BMW 7, and also did not include the labor and tooling cost. So for the parts themselves, I think I have a higher estimate than yours (since I don't see you have labor and tooling here).
My final estimated GM for a basic S90D was 28% so I shouldn't be way off, I think.
Hah! Great minds think alike:
I am sure there are lots of suspect numbers in these tables. I never submitted them to online scrutiny because I never felt like I had done my due diligence vetting the numbers. *really* hard to find manufacturing costs online.
Edit: The reason I was doing these tables was to answer the question "how the heck can the model 3 be profitable at 35k?" This analysis shows that a model S glider is presumably 30-35k. And the model S glider is pretty barebones. The answer it seems, is optimize the design for manufacturability, use some steel, and volume pricing. Still not totally comfortable with that but I have to figure they know what they are doing.
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Normally that would stand to reason but on the other hand they might have big enough aces up the sleeve that it won't matter if the stock dips so I could see them just putting the not so great stuff out there and holding the cards.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I read, front someone who tore a pack apart that the distance between the cells is 2mm, except for larger groups which have a gap of 5mm.
If we use the 2mm figure with my 100 vs 81 example it saves 2mm in each direction for the entire group of cells. I decided that was insignificant so I simplified my post by ignoring it. Maybe in a whole pack it adds up to an extra row or two of cells which could be significant.
The two points I was trying to make are that the increase due to the increased diameter is not close to the 30% we might think, and in my earlier post I understated the impact. I wanted everyone to know that the pack sizes would grow by at least 12-15%, with no other changes. If anyone wants to try to figure out the precise amount by checking the exact configuration of the MS-MX packs let me know and I'll point you in the right direction.
You might want to pass that information on to Tesla because they don't do it that way, and until they do it is correct.
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Wow, we have quite different numbers for different components but at the end those things averaged out.
Considering Powerpack quotes $470/kWh up to 54 of them, and may go as low as $250/kWh for utility scale (an order of magnitude more), and Tesla is kinda like the supplier here, I think the volume they ask to suppliers for the car's parts is key to lower their costs. Hopefully, they can negotiate with the 400k reservation on Model 3 and bargain down some parts (air conditioner, wheels, glasses, etc.) for the S/X even before Model 3 starts production.
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