I think this month is the best timing to raise capital compared to FCF+ after Q2 ER. The reason being TM needs to expedite the M3 factory/GF build out immediately from now to satisfy the huge demand. Meet or pull-in the schedule is much important than proving self-funding ability, WS will be pleased to raise big chunk of money in this M3 hype.
Respectfully I think you are thinking from a purely financial perspective like a guy with only a hammer thinks of all problems as nails that need pounding.
There is a critical path to rolling out Model 3 (not the way Elon uses the expression) just the ordinary way.
In the most simplistic terms omitting iterations and mutual dependencies but without conceding accuracy:
Establish the product and the process to build it then scale the process.
Reverting to the way Elon uses the expression: Serious money is on the critical path at the scale the process step - but it is not on the critical path before then no matter how big the scale.
Also. Raising money generally comes with an implied obligation to deploy it efficiently. If they had a spare $10 billion raised right now that would de-risk any concern of raising it later but they couldn't spend it until they were done getting clear on exactly what they were spending it on. There is also an opportunity cost to rush into it. Funding a proven and costed out process that will definitely deliver a product that consumers will love at good retained margins is a total no brainier. Seeking funding at any stage prior to that being established attracts a discount for execution risk. Also given the situation Tesla is actually in - with more time and more complete execution towards readiness to deploy capital comes more competing offers of funding to choose between. This is especially true when the execution reference data of MS, MX and Tesla Energy is building strength in the background following more than two years of spending to bring those projects to simultaneous fruition. We are just entering the first ever quarter (Q2) with all three pulling in proper cash simultaneously. The before and after photos will be jaw droppingly different in terms of fundamentals - and you think they should tee off a Q1 miss for a raise on hype alone when they don't need the money yet? No! That would be mindblowingly dumb!
I say that the optimum situation for Tesla is to have a cash flow positive and profitable business with a million M3 reservations, an astonishing lead in Autopilot technology and autonomous charging and a production-ready Model 3, Gigafactory Module 1, And beta-scale production line all up and running.
Then hit it with all the cash in the world to duplicate these items on silly favourable terms because the world will quite naturally and quite literally throw cash at them under such circumstances. That's 6 months away.