Ok, it happened a little earlier than I expected. China is next
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Ok, it happened a little earlier than I expected. China is next
Your math is impeccable. You are correct. I've simply gotten the sense from his other "updates" that he's not all that concerned with punctuality or specific timing. His other updates were early morning or evening PST, seemingly just because. And if he can improve action for tomorrow by waiting till EOD tonight, I think he just may. Looking forward to hearing the official numbers. 350k+ would be stellar.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Wow strong finish on high volume today too!
Got $270 weeklies 2 hours ago, looking good already but it's a pure high-leverage play for tomorrow. I hope Elon actually does tweet and that the number of reservations has grown more than most will have expected. I just have this feeling that as we broke $250 on good volume there's this vacuum between $250 and the ATH of $290 where there's room for the stock to run... I won't harp on about the short interest, but with a very short perspective (as when you're trading short term options) it creates an important dynamic. And I just feel that those who were clever enough to go short during the last ATH times have very likely all covered during the dip earlier this year, profitably. That means that basically everyone who is short is underwater after we passed $250. (Yes I know there are many who are short as a hedge or in more complex trades, but there are a lot of traders that are simply straigh short).
Got $270 weeklies 2 hours ago, looking good already but it's a pure high-leverage play for tomorrow. I hope Elon actually does tweet and that the number of reservations has grown more than most will have expected. I just have this feeling that as we broke $250 on good volume there's this vacuum between $250 and the ATH of $290 where there's room for the stock to run... I won't harp on about the short interest, but with a very short perspective (as when you're trading short term options) it creates an important dynamic. And I just feel that those who were clever enough to go short during the last ATH times have very likely all covered during the dip earlier this year, profitably. That means that basically everyone who is short is underwater after we passed $250. (Yes I know there are many who are short as a hedge or in more complex trades, but there are a lot of traders that are simply straigh short).
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A Detroit News columnist refers to the effect of a Tesla Model 3 in the early 21st century as being similar to that of the Ford Model T in the early 20th century. That's right, The Detroit News!
Payne: Why I'm buying a Tesla Model 3
Payne: Why I'm buying a Tesla Model 3
Some very interesting tid bits
Daimler shareholders worried over Tesla and electric carmakers - FT.com
If you hit a paywall, google search the headline and click into it.
Daimler shareholders worried over Tesla and electric carmakers - FT.com
If you hit a paywall, google search the headline and click into it.
Additional :
Fiat Chrysler to cut 1,300 jobs in first layoff since 2009
Fiat Chrysler assembly plant for sale? http://media.fcanorthamerica.com/newsrelease.do?id=335
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Guys, please don't set your sights on too high of a reservations number.
The rate of reservations decelerated quite dramatically over updates Elon gave. My estimation is that we will get maybe 310K reservations. Any number above 300K is good enough for me.
Lets not set ourselves up for a disappointment please.
The rate of reservations decelerated quite dramatically over updates Elon gave. My estimation is that we will get maybe 310K reservations. Any number above 300K is good enough for me.
Lets not set ourselves up for a disappointment please.
Agreed. That being said, I still think 300k+ will help us continue this consistent rise. Just picked up a single $270 weekly haha. #teamjohan
mejojo
Active Member
That would be about 9K per day since Saturday. What info is the deceleration based upon?
I just was one hour ago, getting a haircut and talking to the two ladies working there about the 3. They both grabbed their iphones and quickly made their own reservations!
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
I have to update my valuation model now... 350000 --> 350002
Told two friends of mine yesterday about the details of the reservation (refundable, etc...). They were planning on reserving that night.
350004
350004
I'll be very surprised if it's ~ 310,000. I'm confident many people who placed deposits, especially those who were at the unveiling or waited in line have told many of their friends about the Model 3, and have been very enthusiastic deposit holders.
Unscientific poll: Like this post if you waited in line or were at the unveiling, and have told someone about the Model 3, who isn't very familiar with EV's, who placed a deposit because of you.
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tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
See this graph. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...FaU/pubchart?oid=836356650&format=interactive
Clearly trend is tapering off. Maybe even reaching a ceiling..... asymptotic to 300K or 310K?
From the FT article:
"In an online poll by Autobild, the car magazine, two-thirds of the 6,200 German respondents said “Super, I want to have one”, when asked about the Tesla Model 3.
The results were significant given Germans’ allegiance to their domestic brands, said Arndt Ellinghorst, analyst at Evercore ISI."
mejojo
Active Member
What I'm asking is where is the data coming from? Also, what "T+Hours" on the graph synchs with "276K by end of Sat" tweet?
I take it T+14 hours was 10AM Pacific time? So Saturday evening was about T+75 hours?
Thumper
Active Member
I talked to people yesterday who didn't realize they could still place a reservation. I am not surprised if the rate tapers off. It will not be hard to rev it up again when the time comes.
ludicrousspeed
Member
My guess is he tweets around 11:30 EST (8:30 Pacific) and that it will be 345K-355K. I don't think it will have a material impact on the stock, as the astronomical amount of reservations is already priced in, unless it nears the 400K mark.
You might need to adjust your increment - the ladies are working in a hair salon after all. They WILL be talking about this to all of their clients!
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