Search results

Because it is misleading regardless of whether or not a completely different statistic happens to show a better or worse performance. Pointing that out, which should be obvious, doesn’t put the burden on me to correct it for you.

No, I am not the one using the misleading statistic nor do I understand why you would assume they would be the same…

I did not expect to see such a blatant misrepresentation from you who is usually so particular. What does Troy’s average error the day before a delivery announcement have to do with his estimates for 12+ months from now? You know his quarterly numbers can swing 10%+ within a single quarter… The...

Which is why I noted “full capacity” run rate. You’re welcome to share what you think it is. Pretty clear that October was operating at full capacity (close enough for the difference to be immaterial to this point).

Your first sentence demonstrates that COGS are tied to the vehicle until it is sold. That should tell you that higher production spreads a portion of the D&A out over more cars if production is higher, therefore yielding a higher gross margin on the cars that were delivered in Q3 than would’ve...

Shanghai produced 197k cars in Q3. Tesla's full capacity run rate from October would extrapolate to 260k for Q4. That puts Q3 at 76% utilization, not "less than 60%" as you keep repeating.

Yeah, c’mon guys. Tesla is not close to even starting Cybertruck production and already let this person configure a quad motor and gave them a delivery window? Plenty of people on social media at the front of the Cybertruck line that would be all over this by now on their own orders. Extremely...

Kirkhorn, incredibly, is actually only 37. Drew is 41.

Do you know what time they usually release?

For those commenting on Tesla not using FSD in The Boring Company tunnels, they are restricted from doing so. They can’t even use Autopilot. Clark County has required TBC to disable all driver assist technology - source below. Here’s TBC’s president arguing to allow the use of even basic...

I’m sure I speak for the vast majority when I say I hope you will reconsider. Your insights over the years have been extremely valuable. I’ve been a member since 2014, read almost every post in every iteration of these threads, and have never once thought “jbcarioca is being repetitive.”

No, it wasn't at 5 degrees... It clearly says 22 celsius, 71.5 Fahrenheit, which I noted in my post... As for the rest, dilute your message out in semantics all you want, your implication was clear that tests are only showing significant outperformance due to rigged testing by publications with...

This is FUD... Obviously the points you make are valid to consider but it's extremely clear to anyone that has actually spent some time looking at the real-world range of the Taycan that it significantly outperforms the EPA ratings. Spreading uninformed accusations like this is a disservice to...

This headline expresses way more certainty than the article which seems to only state this as justification: "Experts believe, though, that the plant could start operating as soon as December or early January at the latest." They do not cite any of these supposed experts.

This is more than a week old, not sure why Tesmanian is covering it today.

Interesting, thanks for taking the time to go back through.

The offset seems to be set +1 mph from the beginning?

🙄 Yup it's all made up. That's why Elon Musk spent half of the Q2 call talking about these industry wide challenges and sent an email yesterday noting their impact. Not sure why you are so dug in on this issue. It's extremely obvious there are supply chain challenges. Tesla's planning, which...

See my other reply, I’m not conflating anything. Automakers have sales targets, margin targets, and earnings targets. All are important, but sales above all even if that’s not how it should be. Sales is market share, and greater sales allows for greater amortization of fixed costs. A higher...

You seem to ignore that lower production and sales units hurt margins too, regardless of trim. Fair enough to move on as it seems we will not agree. I personally don’t believe automakers are acting with as much foresight as you suggest, their actions have given us no reason to expect that. You...

The argument you made is incorrect. Sales units in August were down 13% y/y and new vehicle prices were up 9%, so revenue would be down about 4%, not even factoring in that some of the higher sales price is likely retained by the dealer.

Since when have legacy automakers done the smart thing? The actions we on this forum would take are drastically different than what we should expect from them. They, collectively, are highly incentivized to maximize sales in the short term. Purposely constraining inventory is detrimental to...

My mistake on "orders in excess of supply" referring to backlog then, I guess. So you think this is orders in excess of that one individual month's production without any consideration to prior orders? My counterargument wasn't against that but I think that makes even less sense. That would be a...

I don't think you understand the point you are arguing, then. JPR's logic is that the number was larger in April then declined in May because of export vs. domestic delivery flow. He's saying it was high in April because of exports then naturally reverted to norm in May, so no concern. But the...

The article said 21k for March, so not really... That made up metric that no one has ever used would be at a low at the end of a quarter based on Tesla's delivery flow. Net new orders is a metric Tesla has actually mentioned before and it means exactly what The Information defined it as. Again...

This sort of defense is just grasping at straws. The Information defines the metric they are reporting on in the article as new orders less cancellations. If it's accurate or not is obviously up for debate but this nonsense doesn't do anything to help TSLA bulls look reasonable.

What? This is very clearly a Model Y. Look at the handles, wheels, front. Any part really.

You mention the adjustments to COGS but there are similar adjustments to revenue that I think you need to account for with your point on margins.

The prices in the scenario are not the point. You asked what you were missing. A higher cost basis on the new position is something that should be considered by anyone evaluating the type of trade being discussed. It should be considered whether the gains or losses are long term, short term, or...

It’s math, you can’t disagree with it. Part 2 is $550k into TSLA at $700 like you said (so 785.7 shares). If if then doubles to $1,400, you have $1.1M with a gain of $550k. Short term tax would be $275k as you laid it out, netting $275k in addition to the net from the first part of the trade...

You are missing the fact that you start off your renewed position with a higher cost basis which will reduce your tax liability when (if) you sell again. In your scenario, the share price went from $100 to $1,000 to $700. Let’s say after you re-buy it goes to $1,400. Here’s the example under...

Great point overall, but that's not how gross margin is calculated. It's (Sales - COGS) / Sales. In your example: FSD $10K - Margin 40% FSD $15K - Margin 50% FSD $20K - Margin 57% FSD $30K - Margin 67%

lol... "profitability *IS* like 1% or something, just 1% or 2%." Said when profitability was 1.4%. Super clear.

Pretty sure Elon was talking about trailing twelve months GAAP net income margin in that comment, which was 1.4% at the time. This is not future guidance.

Robinhood gives free stocks to new users that have been referred and to those that referred them. Ford is likely the most commonly distributed.

OMG HERE, example from Eastman, already posted upthread, that explains exactly how this all goes down. TL;DR it's a stock split (like Tesla says in the title of the announcement) and TSLA will trade at the new price on August 31st. Any of the "weirdness", including shorting, that has been...

Curt, I love your posts, but I believe this premise is incorrect and I have seen similar posts from you on the topic for years. Here’s a simple example of what you describe. If I own 10% of a company with 100 shares priced at $1,000/share (I own ten shares valued at $10,000 total, company...

So exciting, congratulations!

OMG let's move on.

Just an FYI on the guidance conversation, TSLA has provided some sort of update about 60% of the time in the quarterly delivery/production reports. It's not uncommon. From:

Not surprising perhaps, but it would be contradictory to Elon’s example of the Model X (IIRC?) increasing demand for Model S and citing that as a reason to not expect cannibalization for the 3 from the Y. And while Model Y is up, as would be expected with a launch, overall Tesla is down while...

Thanks for sharing the Simon Rogers piece, I think that cleared it up for me and I think you are indeed correct. They do normalize the data because otherwise as traffic grows, the index would be biased to overindex recent popularity from the natural traffic growth. I'll concede that point...

I'm pretty confident you are misinterpreting this. Here is what Google says about the search index over time that we are discussing. "Interest over time Numbers represent search interest relative to the highest point on the chart for the given region and time. A value of 100 is the peak...

I disagreed with the original post by @StealthP3D, but forgot to then explain why. Google Trends indexes the search data only for the terms that are entered for comparison. So if you are looking at the search interest for Model 3 over time, it is displaying the periodic variance, not the...

Minnesota probably the Perbix acquisition

The point is that if someone hits a Tesla, that would be included in Tesla's crash rate, regardless of fault. So without @ReflexFunds proposed adjustment, it may not be apples-to-apples. Example: Driver Ford drives 198k miles Driver Tesla drives 300k miles Driver Ford hits Driver Tesla. 498k...

Hmm? Earnings per share already accounts for the difference in the number of shares.

In theory, allowing the practice allows for some incentive to expose fraud or bad investments, which would be a helpful market dynamic. In practice, meh. Doesn't really work that way from my point of view.

From the Q2 earnings call: Joseph Osha And just as a follow-on then, could we see you manage to make 8,000, 7,500, 8,000 Model 3s in Fremont by the end of the year you think? Elon Musk Yes. Joseph Osha Okay. Thank you very much. Elon Musk I mean I feel confident it's -- let's just say that...

FYI, since I saw some mention of FactSet consensus. As of 9/25, consensus estimates were as follows. Total deliveries: 96,944 Model 3: 78,445 Model S: 8,567 Model X: 8,788 (sum does not match total delivery consensus due to only a subset of analysts projecting specific models) Revenue: $6,442...