Today's run-up smells to me like:
• Expectation that Tesla can work the numbers (GHG credits, FSD recognition, etc.) to make Q2 have a GAAP profit.
• Expectation that such profit means almost certain S&P 500 inclusion.
• Expectation that such inclusion means an additional run-up in price.
• Expectation that such run-up in price means margin calls.
• Knowledge that such margin calls mean a short squeeze.
The feedback loop of the last two points has begun, I believe.
Now the only question is how long these non-fundamentals last. Normally, the peak would be the day before S&P 500 inclusion. The "almost" in "almost certain" for S&P 500 inclusion should mean, I would think, that index funds would not actually be able to buy up TSLA shares before the actual announcement, which should come around Sept 20th.
One possible wrinkle is whether Standard & Poor's wants TSLA in. I know they have rules, but they also have a committee that makes the final decision - and we all remember the committee changed the rules recently to keep SNAP out. Would they attempt something similar here? Do they really want TSLA's volatility in their staid index?