Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UkNorthampton]

Also, at least in Australia, oil marketing companies have higher margins on the stuff they sell in store than the fuel they sell outside.

So rather than buying supercharger sites, they can take over fuel stations and convert them partially/fully into fast charging sites. The only fly in the ointment with this model is currently, they have people paying for fuel to go inside & hence generate foot traffic.

With greater dwell time, comes more shopping opportunities. I can see site managers like BP turning sites into destinations, with far more food options (pizza, kebab, bakeries, fish & chip shops), varied shops, haircuts, delivery pickup locations.

For Australia - free corks & string with hats, sunscreen, sunglasses, ice cream, cold drinks and beachwear. For UK - umbrellas, Greggs & tea (Earl Grey, hot).

 

[jerry33]

What's the woke mind virus? Sounds really big and important.

Beats me. I've been searching for a definition ever since the term came out. As best I can tell it's whatever you don't like on a particular day. Kind of similar to Commie in the 1950s.

 

[jerry33]

I totally agree, but...
how can he - a really, really smart person - be oblivious to the fact that

• without a communication/PR department,
• him as the only "source of truth" regarding Tesla

this style of communication causes issues? I mean, it's days the whole EV world is worried about Superchargers, for several news cycles now. There have been articles, podcast, videos, countless tweets.
It's like he just read on X some tweets about this and said "oh, people didn't really get my 240-characters message and read too much into my immediate cancellation of the Supercharger team, best to write another 240-characters explanation!"

It's not difficult to understand that silence gets filled with fear and doubts.
Jeez.

When Tesla had a PR department, all that happened was anything the PR department said was taken out of context and turned negative. At best it was a net zero. Also remember that the public has been lied to so often by corporations that no one believes what a PR department says anyway.

 

[nativewolf]

I am surprised to hear this from a long-term Tesla supporter.

FSD is a high priority because each EV with FSD would be capable of replacing 10 gasoline vehicles.
FSD can help increase demand for EVs.
Optimus is a high priority because it could reduce manufacturing costs and help scale car production down the road.
Every project's delay had valid reasons behind it.

Tesla said they will not stop until every gasoline car on the street is gone. I trust them.

Edit:
I will add my two cents to address your other points:

"The Semi being very SLOWLY introduced, a good 3 years late."

• If Tesla engineers have been sitting around doing nothing, then you have a valid point. You should know how hard Tesla engineers pushed themselves on all these projects. The Semi is a product that requires extreme reliability. They produced some, tested them in the real world, and are now redesigning some parts, including changing from a 2-axle drive to a 3-axle drive. If you think it took too long, try working on these projects and see how easy it is.
• Meanwhile, Tesla put in a crazy amount of effort to get the Cybertruck out. This will be a high-impact product.

"The Tesla Roadster 2 being some 4 years late (likely a good halo car)."

• This is a low-impact project but can take a lot of resources to make it perfect.

"The SuperCharger team being sacked with no explanation given. Especially after NACS became the standard, and has been Tesla’s crown jewel. But focus is gone before other manufacturers have modified their cars to use it."

• We don't know what Elon is planning. He did say they will continue to grow the Supercharger network and focus on 100% availability. Have Superchargers been a bottleneck? Someone who traveled 100k miles using Superchargers said he had never waited at a station. I never had to wait in line either.

"EV growth being walked back, significantly, way back."

• No, Elon said we are between two major growth waves. They are preparing for the next big wave.

"Model 3 losing the tax credit, resulting in a 20% price increase and likely a good part of the sales drop."

• Supply chains take a long time to plan. You should blame the government, not Tesla, for this.

"Dropped plans for a smaller value model."

• A cheaper model is coming earlier than planned.
• The Robotaxi could still be two models, one being a cheaper model.

"Strong walk-back on Tesla Solar."

• Running a business is like fighting a war; you have to deal with everything with limited resources. Solar industry itself is progressing well, even if Tesla completely pulled out of it, solar industry would continue to grow. On the other hand, Tesla put in a lot of effort to grow energy storage business.

"Mexico being slow-walked."

• At the moment, even the current lines are not fully utilized. Do you want them to add more production capacity right away?

"Twitter diversion, at a minimum a loss of focus."

• Elon said if we lose to the woke mind virus, we would lose everything—the Tesla mission, the SpaceX mission, the business, shareholder value—everything would be gone. I agree with him on this view. We are still not out of the woods yet.

Making assumptions like : "each vehicle with FSD is capable of replacing 10"... Is an assumption that has failed the test TaaS has applied til now. The reasons bear examination.

They slow rolled the semi because they did not have batteries, the 4680 didn't scale..so they still didn't have them. They get them by switching m3 to lfp and shutting the focus on powerwall to focus on megapacks. It was and always will be about batteries. If something is slow, it's about battery supply. They will have to invest strongly in charging infrastructure, feds have declined to help fund a purpose built semi charging network.

 

[Fred42]

When Tesla had a PR department, all that happened was anything the PR department said was taken out of context and turned negative. At best it was a net zero.

Tesla's public image, along with the perceived prospects for EV's in the US, were harmed by the supercharger fiasco, which Elon belatedly and only partially addressed in today's tweet. A PR department could have been on top of this and limited the damage.

 

[nativewolf]

I totally agree, but...
how can he - a really, really smart person - be oblivious to the fact that

• without a communication/PR department,
• him as the only "source of truth" regarding Tesla

this style of communication causes issues? I mean, it's days the whole EV world is worried about Superchargers, for several news cycles now. There have been articles, podcast, videos, countless tweets.
It's like he just read on X some tweets about this and said "oh, people didn't really get my 240-characters message and read too much into my immediate cancellation of the Supercharger team, best to write another 240-characters explanation!"

It's not difficult to understand that silence gets filled with fear and doubts.
Jeez.

Nature abhors a vacuum and EM communication style creates huge vacuums and high noise.

 

[mongo]

There's a lot more to aero efficiency than just roundness.

Coefficient of Drag
0.33 Cybertruck
0.3 Average sedan
0.3 Rivian R1T
0.33 Silverado EV
0.44 F-150 Lightning
0.45 Average ICE pickup

Cybertruck is tied with the Silverado for 2nd-most aerodynamic pickup truck ever made. The R1T is the best ever, but only by a 10% margin. Also, the CT comes with slightly larger tires than the R1T. This design choice probably accounts for some of the aero difference. Also, Elon claimed in 2019 that with "extreme effort" and "tweaking many small details" the CT's Cd could get as low as 0.3, which would match the Rivian. I presume this includes removal of the side mirrors.

Although CT's angularity is detrimental to aero efficiency, the CT has several other features that substantially improve aero.

​

* The flat, gradually sloped roofline and the tonneau cover keep the flow attached to the truck. Traditional pickups have severe flow separation that occurs at the aft trailing edges of the cab. This flow separation causes pressure drag and turbulent vortices.​

​

* Smooth, flat front hood and windshield with no discontinuities, concave curvature, or protuberances, except for a giant windshield wiper that Tesla said is beneficial for aero because it blocks airflow from leaking around the side towards the driver side window.​

​

* No door handles disrupting flow on the sides​

​

* Adjustable suspension height allows low riding on roads​

​

* Completely flat underbelly​

​

* Low front edge of frunk reduces area of front fascia by about 30% compared to traditional truck design. Reduces high pressure zone at the nose of the vehicle.​

Additionally, energy efficiency isn't everything. Cybertruck's angularity is unavoidable because of other design choices that benefit other metrics and functions. Also, in a towing scenario the minor difference between Cd of the CT and R1T is almost a negligible factor compared to the drag from the load itself.

It's also important to remember that Cd is only one factor in the aero drag formula: Cd*front_crossectional_area*(v²*1/2*fluidDensity)
A 10% lower Cd is negated by a 10% taller or wider (or 5% taller and wider) crossection. (Speaking in generalities, Cybertruck and R1T are fairly similar in size).
R1T Dyno:

Cybertruck Dyno:

Rolling resistance is fairly constant on a Wh per mile basis regardless of speed, but also important.

HVAC Wh/mile decreases with increased speed, so winter heating is a bigger hit to city commuting than expressway touring.

With all energy usage scaled by grid to wheel efficiency. (Plus wheel to pack for regen).

 

[Mengy]

There are on the order of 10 trillion miles traveled per year in automobiles. 3 trillion per year in the US alone where Tesla’s autonomy competitive advantage is greatest. The trend is for increased miles, and if autonomy and mass production of affordable, long-lasting EVs are achieved, then the rate of increase will probably accelerate. Trillions of annual robotaxi revenue is probably too optimistic but if Tesla extracts just $0.10 per mile on average due to having the best software and overall system integration, then that can easily add up to hundreds of billions of dollars of earnings per year, as the fleet approaches 100M+ vehicles in the long run. And It’s not just robotaxi but also FSD subscriptions. The average vehicle goes roughly 1000 miles per month. Many Tesla drivers are already happy to pay $100/month for the current software version. Which comes out to about $0.10/mile. Now add in opportunities in the commercial trucking sector and all kinds of mobile machinery such as forklifts and backhoes.

Precisely. Even at meager margins a Tesla RT fleet has massive revenue potential. If I hadn't done the math myself in my spreadsheet I wouldn't believe the numbers, that's how ludicrously large they get.

At "good" margins revenues truly get laughingly large.

 

[nativewolf]

@SPadival
The "rolling, non-zero stop", (like 3 mph), will cost $75 in Rockville, Maryland, USA, automatic cameras as it is _not_ a full stop from personal experience although mine happened last month due to driver error _NOT_ FSD(S).

What's funny is that people advocating for FSD don't seem to realize that means FULL compliance with laws. 55mph zone...55 mph it will be. Full stop at stop signs...slow in traffic control zones, etc etc.

The other irony is that is 30 or 40 years when FSD really is widespread the US traffic courts will be gutted throwing 10s of thousands of lawyers out of work and JUDGES and Courtroom staff.

 

[nativewolf]

Precisely. Even at meager margins a Tesla RT fleet has massive revenue potential. If I hadn't done the math myself in my spreadsheet I wouldn't believe the numbers, that's how ludicrously large they get.

At "good" margins revenues truly get laughingly large.

And this is where things get funny to me. Gigapress saying EVs will facilitate more miles driven...ie...more unsustainable activity. Where the real goal should be reduction of miles driven. Then the obvious corollary that the EVs driving all these miles will be deadheading a bunch...like a tremendous amount. It's is more waste.

I have yet to see anything that indicates we are better off with RT instead of just more EVs. Especially here in the USA.

TaaS has now had nearly 20 years to change driving behavior and it has..it has done so in a manner that has increased human safety by taking drunk drivers off the road - huge win. Party animals can get an Uber and they do! It's great. Lives saved must be huge already. TaaS has increased urban congestion, it has had not a blip on car ownership. People don't commute on Uber.

IF you can't change public commuting patterns your impact on transportation as a sustainability issue is minimal. MODEL IT OUT. Create Seattle in a spreadsheet. Move everyone around. IT DOES NOT WORK. I DARE anyone pushing FSD as a sustainability question to actually do the work. IT DOESN'T MODEL OUT.

1. I think FSD as a chauffeur will be a great business.​
2. I think Google is a better owner of RT fleets than Tesla and will make more money because it is better aligned with the core product expressed by the average TaaS user today. Traveling, entertainment, running errands/deliveries while avoiding parking fees. Google can make money from all those in addition to the RT. If costs go as low as some think Google could do RT for free and make money from other services.​
3. I think RT will do wonders for disenfranchised. Vehicle must be disability compliant which no Tesla RT vehicle discussed to date is. Waymo's RT will be.​

 

[dhrivnak]

I understand the feeling of cognitive dissonance and confusion. How does this make sense!

One path to consider revolves around maximizing usage. Consumer vehicles are not usage efficient.

Consider a future where ice dealerships consortiums buy the SC network in totality with Tesla a minority partner. This removes a barrier to success as they move to full EV as battery prices fall. Pay attention to CATL.

Tesla uses the SC money to build out the heavy truck charging network over 15 months consistent with the launch of the next gen Semi platform later in 25 at scale.

FSD makes transition to high usage RT and heavy trucking a reality. Required development is the heavy truck charging national network at Tesla truck stops as well as induction charging for RT at 20ish southern state metro areas for a start. We will see 8/8.

I think a plan like this only makes sense with FSD success in sight. It is a major restructuring and refocus on maximizing usage or utility made possible by FSD advances.

This future makes sense to me and perhaps others. YMMV.

Possibly but if that is the vision it has not been articulated very well. For me a clear vision would be of help.

 

[dhrivnak]

I am surprised to hear this from a long-term Tesla supporter.

FSD is a high priority because each EV with FSD would be capable of replacing 10 gasoline vehicles.
FSD can help increase demand for EVs.
Optimus is a high priority because it could reduce manufacturing costs and help scale car production down the road.
Every project's delay had valid reasons behind it.

Tesla said they will not stop until every gasoline car on the street is gone. I trust them.

Edit:
I will add my two cents to address your other points:

"The Semi being very SLOWLY introduced, a good 3 years late."

• If Tesla engineers have been sitting around doing nothing, then you have a valid point. You should know how hard Tesla engineers pushed themselves on all these projects. The Semi is a product that requires extreme reliability. They produced some, tested them in the real world, and are now redesigning some parts, including changing from a 2-axle drive to a 3-axle drive. If you think it took too long, try working on these projects and see how easy it is.
• Meanwhile, Tesla put in a crazy amount of effort to get the Cybertruck out. This will be a high-impact product.

"The Tesla Roadster 2 being some 4 years late (likely a good halo car)."

• This is a low-impact project but can take a lot of resources to make it perfect.

"The SuperCharger team being sacked with no explanation given. Especially after NACS became the standard, and has been Tesla’s crown jewel. But focus is gone before other manufacturers have modified their cars to use it."

• We don't know what Elon is planning. He did say they will continue to grow the Supercharger network and focus on 100% availability. Have Superchargers been a bottleneck? Someone who traveled 100k miles using Superchargers said he had never waited at a station. I never had to wait in line either.

"EV growth being walked back, significantly, way back."

• No, Elon said we are between two major growth waves. They are preparing for the next big wave.

"Model 3 losing the tax credit, resulting in a 20% price increase and likely a good part of the sales drop."

• Supply chains take a long time to plan. You should blame the government, not Tesla, for this.

"Dropped plans for a smaller value model."

• A cheaper model is coming earlier than planned.
• The Robotaxi could still be two models, one being a cheaper model.

"Strong walk-back on Tesla Solar."

• Running a business is like fighting a war; you have to deal with everything with limited resources. Solar industry itself is progressing well, even if Tesla completely pulled out of it, solar industry would continue to grow. On the other hand, Tesla put in a lot of effort to grow energy storage business.

"Mexico being slow-walked."

• At the moment, even the current lines are not fully utilized. Do you want them to add more production capacity right away?

"Twitter diversion, at a minimum a loss of focus."

• Elon said if we lose to the woke mind virus, we would lose everything—the Tesla mission, the SpaceX mission, the business, shareholder value—everything would be gone. I agree with him on this view. We are still not out of the woods yet.

I guess I am not as sold that FSD would lead to a 10x reduction of cars. People still need to be at school at 7 am and done at 2:30. Most work starts at 8 and ends at 5. The weekend ball game begins at 2. So the need, the majority of need is not evenly spread out through the day.

 

[GOVA]

Newest ratings for Ruters are out

https://twitter.com/x/status/1788743256353710094

 

[Mengy]

And this is where things get funny to me. Gigapress saying EVs will facilitate more miles driven...ie...more unsustainable activity. Where the real goal should be reduction of miles driven. Then the obvious corollary that the EVs driving all these miles will be deadheading a bunch...like a tremendous amount. It's is more waste.

I have yet to see anything that indicates we are better off with RT instead of just more EVs. Especially here in the USA.

The question of whether or not RT's are better or worse for the world could be an entire debate unto itself.

The general conception is once TaaS becomes cheaper than car ownership it will actually increase traffic on roads. Lowering the cost of anything usually increases the use of said thing, so decreasing the cost of mobility will likely increase people moving about by RT's, they'll travel more often.

This would be great for TSLA but bad for traffic congestion. It's one of the main forward looking reasons why Elon founded the Boring Company, he foresees Tesla RT's making traffic worse over time.

TaaS has now had nearly 20 years to change driving behavior and it has..it has done so in a manner that has increased human safety by taking drunk drivers off the road - huge win. Party animals can get an Uber and they do! It's great. Lives saved must be huge already. TaaS has increased urban congestion, it has had not a blip on car ownership. People don't commute on Uber.

Uber isn't cheaper than car ownership, EV RT's would be. That's the key difference, and it's what will likely decrease car ownership over time. A very long time, it won't happen immediately but rather gradually as TaaS becomes more widespread and competition makes its pricing competitive.

 

[2daMoon]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1788834859110002716

From the horses mouth, always best to wait for authoritative sources.

Wow, what a shocker. I'd have never guessed...

/s

 

[UkNorthampton]

Tritium chargers dead?

Less need for Supercharger sites when BP and others buy Tesla Superchargers.

More Supercharger production needed for BP, EG Group and others. Plus how many tritium chargers will be replaced by Superchargers (cheapest, most reliable option)?

Discounts offered to replace DC fast-chargers in wake of Tritium financial collapse

Australian DC charging company steps into the void created by Tritium receivership, offering significant "discounts" to sites looking to upgrade their equipment.

thedriven.io

 

[Speedr117]

And this is where things get funny to me. Gigapress saying EVs will facilitate more miles driven...ie...more unsustainable activity. Where the real goal should be reduction of miles driven. Then the obvious corollary that the EVs driving all these miles will be deadheading a bunch...like a tremendous amount. It's is more waste.

I have yet to see anything that indicates we are better off with RT instead of just more EVs. Especially here in the USA.

TaaS has now had nearly 20 years to change driving behavior and it has..it has done so in a manner that has increased human safety by taking drunk drivers off the road - huge win. Party animals can get an Uber and they do! It's great. Lives saved must be huge already. TaaS has increased urban congestion, it has had not a blip on car ownership. People don't commute on Uber.

IF you can't change public commuting patterns your impact on transportation as a sustainability issue is minimal. MODEL IT OUT. Create Seattle in a spreadsheet. Move everyone around. IT DOES NOT WORK. I DARE anyone pushing FSD as a sustainability question to actually do the work. IT DOESN'T MODEL OUT.

1. I think FSD as a chauffeur will be a great business.​
2. I think Google is a better owner of RT fleets than Tesla and will make more money because it is better aligned with the core product expressed by the average TaaS user today. Traveling, entertainment, running errands/deliveries while avoiding parking fees. Google can make money from all those in addition to the RT. If costs go as low as some think Google could do RT for free and make money from other services.​
3. I think RT will do wonders for disenfranchised. Vehicle must be disability compliant which no Tesla RT vehicle discussed to date is. Waymo's RT will be.​

Time is essential for Climate Change. At the current rate of transition, it's not happening fast enough! Robotaxis enable a 10 times impact per vehicle, thereby vastly speeding up the process. All Tesla has to do is mandate that anyone licensing FSD must do it with an EV (no hybrids/gas vehicles).

Don't let Perfect be the enemy of Good!

 

[2daMoon]

Tesla's public image, along with the perceived prospects for EV's in the US, were harmed by the supercharger fiasco, which Elon belatedly and only partially addressed in today's tweet. A PR department could have been on top of this and limited the damage.

There is a flip-side to this though.

Folks casually following Tesla through the media as well as those more closely following will all notice eventually how these slams against Tesla are all short term. There is NEVER any long term effect. More often than not the story is debunked, though only a small portion of those who saw the first story ever see the retraction or debunking, some do.

This is a cumulative effect, which is probably resulting in people at some level getting the idea that there is something about Tesla worth paying attention to.

I don't think a tit for tat PR department would ever have the positive effect at either a conscious or unconscious level on the viewing public. Once someone in the spotlight begins defending themselves it is easier to accept the FUD and decide they are probably guilty.

Over the long run, the mere fact that more and more Tesla is in everyone's face, whether that be from seeing cars on the road or reading news stories, all the attention is focused on Tesla.

Tesla, Tesla, Tesla, is the word of the day. There is no such thing as bad publicity. People just know that others are talking about Tesla and will want to know why.

Then, they will figure it out on their own.

 

[thx1139]

What's the woke mind virus? Sounds really big and important.

Woke = "Things people want to complain about but won’t name because it shows the world how childish and hateful they are."

 

[samppa]

Haven't seen discussion about FSD and Semis.

Think of what that will do to transportation: driverless, fully automated electric semi trucks.