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If TSLA opens tomorrow near the levels we’re seeing in thin after hours trading, that could present a marvelous buying opportunity. I hope to take advantage. An explainable miss of 1180 deliveries due to production wrinkles rather than demand for current models, is miniscule compared with a quarter of a million reservations for the next model. An update on those reservations is expected late tomorrow.
It’s the Model 3 reservations that should have Wall Street bankers crawling over each other to offer favorable financing to more quickly build the needed facilities. Elon has obviously been angling for that, and is in the catbird seat for the negotiations. I wouldn’t be surprised if a highly advantageous financing deal is soon announced, along with expedited construction plans. That could greatly inspire car buyers, stock analysts and investors.
It’s the Model 3 reservations that should have Wall Street bankers crawling over each other to offer favorable financing to more quickly build the needed facilities. Elon has obviously been angling for that, and is in the catbird seat for the negotiations. I wouldn’t be surprised if a highly advantageous financing deal is soon announced, along with expedited construction plans. That could greatly inspire car buyers, stock analysts and investors.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Tesla just missed a golden opportunity. This is where investing long term pays off. I don't need to worry about a brief pullback. Now that the stock is down, I'm hoping we see support at 220s before analysts upgrade the stock.
Well, call order filled just before close... Can kiss that money goodbye. Oh well. This hurts credibility quite a bit though. Early Feb they say 16k, and then they miss by over 1k vehicles? It's easy to take reservations, much harder to build cars. I know that's the shorts' story, but its true, and this hurts tesla's case.
I'm not worried about the little loss I took. Just learned my lesson that short-term is very challenging to predict.
How low do we go now???
I'm not worried about the little loss I took. Just learned my lesson that short-term is very challenging to predict.
How low do we go now???
CyberDutchie
Active Member
There are no issues with the X. I know because I picked up mine last week and it is flawless. Could not be more happy, with the finish, door operation, and safety features! In fact, the car avoided two accidents already, by doing forceful emergency breaking on the freeway for me.
dc_h
Active Member
I'm bummed I didn't sell June 210's. I would have bought back sep 240 in the morning. No change in stock, but medium term option gains can be gone in a tweet.
Be greedy at your peril.
But 750 a week is awesome. Over 9000 X's with 10-12,000 S's will greatly reduce street doubt on 80,000+ for the year
Be greedy at your peril.
But 750 a week is awesome. Over 9000 X's with 10-12,000 S's will greatly reduce street doubt on 80,000+ for the year
DrGuest
Member
Well to be fair, if they are producing 1000 Model S a week and 750 Model X, then missing the guidance by 1180, means they were only off by 2/3 of a single week's worth of production by the end of the quarter.
Now if analysts would be this smart to defend Tesla, the stock should recover. But some of them have a deceptive agenda.
Not the suppliers fault, it's Teslas fault for designing the most difficult car in the
World to build. Frankly hubris is too kind a word to express incompetence.
World to build. Frankly hubris is too kind a word to express incompetence.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Everyone mentions 750 Model X a week, but I would not be surprised if build rate is actually 350/week, and 750 was achieved by push in completing partially assembled Xs that were stockpiled.
Doesn't mean much long term, but I caution against over-enthusiasm
Doesn't mean much long term, but I caution against over-enthusiasm
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Can we have @jesselivenomore un-banned?
I'd really like to hear his thoughts on how this miss may play out.
I'd really like to hear his thoughts on how this miss may play out.
Have to agree. I assumed at this point it was his choice not to return. Perhaps I missed something, but from what I saw this seems unwarranted.
This is a good point, but nonetheless they need to build in a buffer for themselves. They should not have missed by more than around 500, not because they can predict that well, but because they should have sandbagged their number more. Just my opinion... Better to beat by a lot cause things go better than expected, than to miss by a pretty significant amount.
On the flip side, if they sandbagged they probably wouldn't push as hard. But there still needs to be closer estimations, in my opinion. They have been doing this long enough to be able to estimate their guidance a little better.
Seriously, trying to do very hard and slightly missing is far better than being conservative. We aren't in Tesla for them to be tepid. GM is tepid. VW is tepid. Call it incompetence if you want, but no one else has ever delivered a ~250 mile SUV/CUV BEV that seats 7. We'll see if anyone else is up for that challenge.
Remember, the Model X shipped comparable volumes to the Chevy Volt last month. Almost 6x the volumes of the i3 in the U.S. We'll see how it fares in China next quarter.
It's easy to take reservations? In my view it's not easy at all. I am pretty sure the kind of achievement like model 3 reservation has never happened in history. I bought some just above 236, and hope I can get more at even better price.
I understand your skepticism. But bear in mind they did reaffirm the yearly guidance. If the 750 rate is made up it would be quite difficult to meet yearly guidance.
If there is one company in the whole world that doesn't deserve the word "incompetence", that is Tesla. Then add SpaceX to the list.
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