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larmor
Active Member
FWIW, I had been on the fence about getting an MX, since had to wait till latter half of 2016. Store person several weeks ago also said MX ordered now would be delivered near end of year. But for the fun of it, reserved one last Thursday, since my lease on current car expires jan 2017. So today got an email, if i confirm, could be delivered april/may 2016.
So that means, everyone cancelled their MX reservation or they are going to make 15k to 20k MX in the next three months?
So that means, everyone cancelled their MX reservation or they are going to make 15k to 20k MX in the next three months?
The car was just not ready to be delivered in numbers before. It was not just supplier problems but misaligned panels, seals, sensors and other things.
In the end I think the more interesting part that is not mentioned often is that they manage to do the ramp as fast if not faster than the competition with less capital and that they will produce X for years at an increasing GM with no competition and it is starting right now (or some weeks ago).
In the end I think the more interesting part that is not mentioned often is that they manage to do the ramp as fast if not faster than the competition with less capital and that they will produce X for years at an increasing GM with no competition and it is starting right now (or some weeks ago).
flankspeed8
Member
Or that they still haven't configured because they are on the fence about something, or still want to see one in person before pulling the trigger. But I am willing to be bet that there has been some attrition with reservations.
mejojo
Active Member
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
I wouldn't say made up. I think it's just rose-colored, while still being technically correct. And I'm not concerned for yearly guidance, if they scale to 1000 in Q2.
There was some very positive commentary starting from 750/week.
My fear is that people will start projecting beats from that little nugget, and I don't want to see increased expectations, guidance is positive as-is
They are seriously prioritizing people who get the larger battery, 6 seats or more, AND the premium upgrade. If that is your configuration and the fact you live in California, it makes complete sense to me that you would get your Model X earlier than people who did not tick one of those boxes.
I wouldn't say made up. I think it's just rose-colored, while still being technically correct. And I'm not concerned for yearly guidance, if they scale to 1000 in Q2.
There was some very positive commentary starting from 750/week.
My fear is that people will start projecting beats from that little nugget, and I don't want to see increased expectations, guidance is positive as-is
I'd say its fair criticism. Didn't they quote a run rate of 250/week at the end of quarter 4? They didn't average that for Q1.
If they are blaming Hubris, then they should fire him/her.
flankspeed8
Member
But isn't it a problem that someone who reserves last week could potentially jump ahead of thousands of people who have had a reservation for years? IMO this is not a good practice to build loyalty.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
On February 9, my portfolio has reached 13.3% of its original value going into X reveal. At that point I was sitting at 86.7% drop peak to troff. Main reason for that is that I trusted Tesla and EM statements around Model X scale. I think these events thought me how to read Tesla statements more carefully.
And look, I'm not angry or blaming anyone. My fault, I got carried away. I'm still huge Tesla and TSLA bull. Dutifully put a deposit on Model 3. And my portfolio is today 60.5% of pre-model X (i.e. 350% up from Feb 9th!), so I'm very, very, very happy...
sundaymorning
Active Member
The price dropped rather slowly ATH, indicating some support, even gaining back a little ground at certain intervals. I wouldn't be surprise if we see a reversal tomorrow. But then again, It wouldn't surprise me if we drop to 220s neither. As I have stated before, Tesla can miss guidance 5% annually every year from now till 2020, but makes up for it by gaining 40-50% growth YoY. By now, everyone here should already know the inherent risk of investing short term.
I don't think missed deadlines are a thing of the past. The problem is that they operate internally with almost impossible deadlines according to employees. And you can't have one internal goal and say something completely different publicly while still maintaining credibility for the internal goal.
sundaymorning
Active Member
I'm sorry to hear about your loss. From reading you post I'm speculating that you have your money in options. Let me tell you something about options, they don't call it "fools gold" for nothing.
Electrifying
Member
Afterhours volume is only 354,873 shares, I wouldn't be surprised if we open tomorrow at $245.
Isn't this more than normal after hours volume? Or you would have expected much more activity if the shorts truly piled on?
By batching this way they are maximizing margins and processing efficiency simultaneously. Given the three variables: margins, efficiency, and loyalty, which do you think Tesla needs work on most? I get your point, but have faith they manage their best a company who despite limited resources is breaking new ground at relative light speed compared to the rest industry.
I wouldn't say made up. I think it's just rose-colored, while still being technically correct. And I'm not concerned for yearly guidance, if they scale to 1000 in Q2.
There was some very positive commentary starting from 750/week.
My fear is that people will start projecting beats from that little nugget, and I don't want to see increased expectations, guidance is positive as-is
This has been repetitively mentioned starting with the blog of 1000/wk MS delivery in November 2014. Q4 2015, they said the rate was 250/week. If you go linear, you'd have 3k MX. I would highly highly doubt 750/week rate. By that rate, Tesla should project 21k delivery in q2. I can bet that won't happen.
For the sake of investors, long or short term, Tesla needs to get their act together in wording the projections.
One of the advantages of slowing down in old age is that you sometimes have more patience. I am constantly amused/amazed that so much brainpower on this thread is focussed on why Elon or what the company will do or say about something. Sometimes it is crucial, of course, if you’re in and out of the market on a daily basis. But the delay (if there was one) of announcing production numbers until today got a bit tedious. I know the Bible said, “seek and ye shall find,” but it may say somewhere else, “wait and ye shall know.” But then my brain doesn’t even fire enough for day trading, and mastering the mystery of options is beyond me, though Motley Fool tried to educate.
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