Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[everman]

And the third one:

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000494417

This is my favorite one of all! They all seemed to have missed a glaring hilarious fact. Evidently fuel economy (17mpg) hasn't changed significantly since 1937... Wow, progress. This is a significant point in my mind, and why we are all so sure that electric cars are so disruptive. There hasn't been a major advancement in vehicle propulsion in 80 years... Until now.

 

[JRP3]

If you want me to do it I can easily show (I believe to everyone's satisfaction) that at the end of 2017, when the M3 is scheduled to launch, that Tesla's pack cost will be under $125 per kWh.

Sure, I'd like to see your numbers. But even at say $120/kWh finished pack costs that puts a 70kWh pack at $8,400, which is a substantial chunk of a $35K assuming some sort of profit margin. Of course we won't be seeing any $35K base models in 2017 and probably not in 2018.

 

[lango]

Drivetrain should be about the same as the cost of the drivetrain for a BMW 3-series. So they need to get the battery cost down to low levels. $8400 is too much I think.

 

[Causalien]

Sure, I'd like to see your numbers. But even at say $120/kWh finished pack costs that puts a 70kWh pack at $8,400, which is a substantial chunk of a $35K assuming some sort of profit margin. Of course we won't be seeing any $35K base models in 2017 and probably not in 2018.

Mitchj,

It'll probably take more than 3 days, but it'll benefit everyone.

 

[dc_h]

Base model will not be 70KwH. A 70 or 75KwH battery will be for the performance model and will likely start at 45,000.

Sure, I'd like to see your numbers. But even at say $120/kWh finished pack costs that puts a 70kWh pack at $8,400, which is a substantial chunk of a $35K assuming some sort of profit margin. Of course we won't be seeing any $35K base models in 2017 and probably not in 2018.

 

[Fallenone]

I think the biggest pro is to assure investors and boost confidence.

For cons, I'm not sure there will be much for competitors copying. Neither the detailed arrangement of batteries nor the electric moters can be "revealed" for others to copy by only giving out some selected specs. The exterior of course can be copied but hey, if anyone does that, it's more of compliment right?

Let's see

Pros and cons of revealing everything

Pros: drives up demand

Cons:
-competitors copying
-production has to be able to make everything right off the bat, so potential deoays
-

Anyone else can chime in? I am too jetlagged

- - - Updated - - -

Please do show how they can get to $125/kWh without a completed GF by the end of 2017. They said TE in 2015 Q4 was surprisingly having positive GM. That puts their cost for battery pack for TE right now about $400/kWh. Now I'm not saying it costs $400/kWh for the battery pack in the car but I don't think its remotely possible for them to achieve $125/kWh in less than two years. The GF and the production scale are simply not there yet.

What pack cost do you think is required to do that?

If you want me to do it I can easily show (I believe to everyone's satisfaction) that at the end of 2017, when the M3 is scheduled to launch, that Tesla's pack cost will be under $125 per kWh. I could show that it's actually closer to $100-$110 per kWh, but that's more time consuming and I am not up for doing that right now.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

MitchJi,

Since the model 3 can get 200 miles of range with a 60kwh (better aero than the bolt), then 70kwh represents at least $1000 EXTRA in production costs. That's money that could go towards parts for a compelling feature, or even towards gross-margins. 70kwh for the base model 3 is just throwing money away. At $7200 for a 60kwh battery, their powertrain costs are still higher than an ICE system. Why handicap themselves further by putting a higher cost item than needed for their base model? That would be financial suicide. Tesla needs to succeed (not just survive) for the planet to win.

 

[techmaven]

The Model S is still showing late March delivery. This doesn't indicate a particularly full production queue.

Seriously, you've been on TMC since June, 2015, 827 posts, and you still don't understand the cadence of Tesla deliveries? How many quarters have you watched the same thing?

 

[JRP3]

Base model will not be 70KwH. A 70 or 75KwH battery will be for the performance model and will likely start at 45,000.

I agree, I was just responding to Mitch who said he can make the costs work for a 70kWh base car.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

My own back of the napkin calculations came out around $125/kwh as well, though I do mean "back of the napkin," this was done during a 90 minute trip on a ferry with a calculator app and Google so take that fwiw. I believe the base M3 will have a 55kwh battery (and range of about 230 miles) at a cost of about $6,900... which is more than an equivalent ICE but not unreasonably so.

 

[FredTMC]

As I am planning on putting down a deposit on the 3, these are the things I really want to know:

1. Supercharger hardware included or optional cost?
2. Supercharging free or...?
3. AP hardware included for all w/optional software purchase to enable?
4. Battery option(s) and estimated range

I'd hope to get answers to the first 3. If they show everything (exterior/interior) but don't answer any of those questions, I'll be very disappointed.

cool. Let me help you out. I'm fairly certain on all four questions. Yes, I'm a know it all.

first of all, tesla WILL show the exterior of the car. The physical car on stage. They probably won't focus on the interior styling. But exterior styling will largely be the actual styling of the car when it launches next year.

To your questions:

1). IMO. Absolutely supercharging will be included on all model 3's. No cost... Included

2). Supercharging will be FREE for long distance travel.

3). All Model 3s will have the AP hardware. May be a fee to enable it on the car, but I doubt it. Industry is going to autopilot and safety related MANDATED features like TACC and collision avoidance (steering) and auto breaking in evident of collision. So, Tesla will have highway autopilot for free but possibly charge for a "city street" autonomous version.

4). Simple. Tesla needs a 200mile range version and a 300mile version. The 200 mi range will be ~50 kWh battery and the >300mi range around 65-70 kWh battery.

 

[Fallenone]

I do feel supercharger will be a one time fee thing like it once was for the S60. Why wouldn't Tesla have this option to make more money to support expansion of the SC? Model 3 is supposed to be a competitive entry level luxury car true, but it's still an EV. No matter how we don't want to compare it with the new Leaf and the Bolt, they are still comparable for most people at the first glance and the SC is a unique feature that can make Model 3 stand out (among many other features of course). Given it aimed to be a mass market car, the current SC stations won't be able to keep up with the number of M3. They need to build a lot more to not make customers complain all the time. Even as of now, the SC stations seem a bit lagged behind (reminding people not to use it daily). And also we need to factor in the almost certain future when a lot of M3 owners are using it for Uber/Lyft. This is already happening with the S in Hong Kong and over there, it takes one or two hours in the line before S owners can even start charging. I think the situation will only be more serious for the 3 because its much more likely to be Uber-ized due to the lower entry price tag. To overcome these challenges, a whole lot of more SC stations are needed and naturally, more money is needed.

cool. Let me help you out. I'm fairly certain on all four questions. Yes, I'm a know it all.

first of all, tesla WILL show the exterior of the car. The physical car on stage. They probably won't focus on the interior styling. But exterior styling will largely be the actual styling of the car when it launches next year.

To your questions:

1). IMO. Absolutely supercharging will be included on all model 3's. No cost... Included

2). Supercharging will be FREE for long distance travel.

3). All Model 3s will have the AP hardware. May be a fee to enable it on the car, but I doubt it. Industry is going to autopilot and safety related MANDATED features like TACC and collision avoidance (steering) and auto breaking in evident of collision. So, Tesla will have highway autopilot for free but possibly charge for a "city street" autonomous version.

4). Simple. Tesla needs a 200mile range version and a 300mile version. The 200 mi range will be ~50 kWh battery and the >300mi range around 65-70 kWh battery.

 

[maoing]

two production model X reported delivery:
first one delivered today
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...duction-P90D?p=1374678&viewfull=1#post1374678
second one to be delivered tomorrow
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...ivery-Update?p=1374652&viewfull=1#post1374652

 

[everman]

My friend got a call from Tesla in Denver today. Sig #42x Model X is on the truck bound for Denver. There is no major snowstorm to slow it down BUT:

http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_29522393/rock-slide-near-glenwood-springs-closes-i-70

Sheesh. Interstate 70 near Glenwood Springs suffered an overnight rock slide and it is now closed. Only one vehicle was destroyed, a car carrier full of new Tesla Model Xs…

No. Not really, but the closure sure might slow down the delivery. Target: Earliest is end of the week, otherwise next week. I will keep you posted.

 

[maoing]

another datapoint from factory tour about X, it's not so good though. https://forums.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/production-mx-delivery-only?page=2

snlnk | February 15, 2016 Just toured the factory this morning. Unfortunately, I saw almost no MXs on the production lines. I did see stamped aluminum MX parts though, hopefully the beginnings of a real ramp up. Also saw several MXs in what looked like final inspection/quality control. While disheartened by lack of MX sightings, it was promising to hear the staff so upbeat about production and quality going forward and echoing what we already know, i.e., that the kinks are getting worked out in this still early phase of production.
P90DL, fully loaded except 20" silver wheels, VIN 7xx

 

[McMuggets]

another datapoint from factory tour about X, it's not so good though. https://forums.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/production-mx-delivery-only?page=2

What about the many other data points of Model X production editions being delivered to happy owners? The following in the same thread as the link you posted dated today (Feb 16th 2016):

"Took delivery today of Prod vin#21X. Absolutely no problems so far. Weather was crappy today so didn't drive much. I'll report more in the next few days. Here's a link to some delivery pics - sorry about the bad lighting. As soon as the sum comes out I'll post some better ones. https://www.dropbox.com/sc/f7v9uqbsglrss6a/AADjL5q5XDLMvheNohlQLxEva?oref=e&n=524761690"

There are a bunch more people reporting deliveries of finished product, and the numerous videos of Model X on the production line that were posted by Musk and Co. One guy's "bad" comments on one tour during one time on one day about seeing some panels of Model X.... makes not a reliable measure.

 

[everman]

Elon's coming out hard with the "Model X is on it's way to you" narrative!

Elon retweeted Phil LeBeau's tweet

https://twitter.com/elonmusk

https://twitter.com/Lebeaucarnews/status/699798682061955072

 

[maoing]

Yeah. Elon Musk and Tesla Motors are working very hard to turnaround the negative impact of slow X ramp up now.

Elon's coming out hard with the "Model X is on it's way to you" narrative!

Elon retweeted Phil LeBeau's tweet

https://twitter.com/elonmusk

https://twitter.com/Lebeaucarnews/status/699798682061955072

 

[Papafox]

Max pain for this Friday is way up at 180. That climb was caused by far more puts expiring on Friday than calls. The slope around 155 is fairly steep, which means that the market makers have incentive to try bumping TSLA up a few points Friday afternoon if volume is light.
Check it out:
Max Pain | Maximum-Pain.com
Note: the website typically defaults to Apple as the stock, and you need to change the stock to "TSLA" and then press the "submit" button. It's a far different max pain chart than I've ever seen for TSLA before.

 

[dc_h]

We should see VIN 500 by March 1st. If the ramping is happening, Tesla should get to about production VIN 1500 in Q1. That would be about 2500 X's and get us entering Q2 around 500 a week and on track for 1000 a week. Average that out to about 700 X a week, plus 1000 S a week in Q2 and we're over 21,000 cars produced. I think this would be a major update in market perception and the current risk discount. This would also accelerate the positive trend for gross margins and cash from operations in Q1 and especially in Q2. If they can produce 20,000 cars in Q2, margins should be over 25%. Investments in Sales, Service Centers and Superchargers should accelerate in the second half to manage increasing sales and prepare for Model 3.

Prediction for reveal: Car doesn't drive out. Presented by robot claw, showing exterior only. Show graphic mock ups of the interior, projected range, price range and plans for maturity of supercharger environment.

Yeah. Elon Musk and Tesla Motors are working very hard to turnaround the negative impact of slow X ramp up now.