Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[everman]

Yeah. Elon Musk and Tesla Motors are working very hard to turnaround the negative impact of slow X ramp up now.

As he should. The team's spent the last several months working their tails off to start shipping this in volume, now it's time to turn to deliveries.

It really is 2013 all over again...

 

[stealthology]

Prediction for reveal: Car doesn't drive out. Presented by robot claw, showing exterior only. Show graphic mock ups of the interior, projected range, price range and plans for maturity of supercharger environment.

Any performance stats? I'm looking for a performance version quicker than a BMW M3.

 

[ludicrousspeed]

One positive indicator for the stock this year IMO is Musk's attitude towards the share price. Before the stock took off, he seemed to really care about getting to the shorts and having the market reflect Tesla's potential. Fast forward after the SP more than triples, allowing them to raise capital in a variety of ways in amounts that seemed impossible just a year earlier, while also bringing in unprecedented criticism and skepticism. Musk then seemed to alter his stance on TSLA stock by being much more conservative and even reluctant to appreciate the respect the market showed the company. Look at this timeline:


September 2012: "Tsunami of Hurt" Interview https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JMRKkBMFb2Q
March 2013: "Put my money where my mouth is" tweet https://www.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/316260319360061440?lang=en
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April 2013: Stock explodes and company gets the recognition he wanted.
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October 2013: "Stock price more than we deserve" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FVbyyDLzvg
September 2014: Stock price "kind of high" http://www.cnbc.com/2014/09/05/elon-musk-tesla-stock-is-high-now.html


Since that 09/14 interview shares are down 40% over a 16 month time span and I get the feeling he's confident that it's oversold at this point. He sounded confident on the CC, while setting a very high delivery guidance (after admitting he wants to start setting the bar low.) Also seems like he's been tweeting positively about Tesla a lot more recently, including a video showing their progress on both the Model X ramp and autopilot, a third-party Tesla ad, and barrage of Model 3 information (all within the last week.) Not to mention that, at $1K, the deposit is significantly lower than expected and designed to generate massive reservations, which can only help the stock. He also exercised over 500K stock options and then bought an additional 676K options both within the last month. Yes, he has a record of buying additional shares, including some during the August Tesla equity offering (which hasn't worked out so far), but buying over 1M shares in such a short-time period is a huge bullish hint from the man who knows the company best.

Of course, even in the two interviews where he doesn't seem bullish long-term, it's clear he is as confident as can be in the long-term, which is all I care about personally. But this is the short-term thread, and there are so many catalysts in I foresee in 2016 to go along with my "Musk share price attitude" indicator.

 

[Irishjugg]

Sure, I'd like to see your numbers. But even at say $120/kWh finished pack costs that puts a 70kWh pack at $8,400, which is a substantial chunk of a $35K assuming some sort of profit margin. Of course we won't be seeing any $35K base models in 2017 and probably not in 2018.

Nor will we likely be seeing a 70 kWh base model. 55kWh or 60 is more likely for the 35k version, the 70 or 75 would be the second tier model, almost definitely (meaning that 8400 into 45k+ isn't so bad for margin)

 

[Gerardf]

Another nice 'green' day in Europe +2%. Hope we can finally break the spell and drift higher during a day.

 

[Causalien]

Another nice 'green' day in Europe +2%. Hope we can finally break the spell and drift higher during a day.

Good luck to everyone who've placed their bet

 

[DrJohnM]

Any performance stats? I'm looking for a performance version quicker than a BMW M3.

And so Telsa should provide. This is the real argument as to why the established auto firms cannot just produce something themselves. Say Tesla produces a M3 M3 killer (0 to 60mph 3.8) for USD50k (should be possible), for BMW to make their own Tesla killer, they have to kill their own ICE M3 product that sells for $65k

 

[JRP3]

To your questions:

1). IMO. Absolutely supercharging will be included on all model 3's. No cost... Included

2). Supercharging will be FREE for long distance travel.

I expect the hardware will be built into all cars. I don't see anyway they will roll the cost of supercharger access into the price of the base car. Remember it was a $2K option on the 60's.

 

[Drax7]

And so Telsa should provide. This is the real argument as to why the established auto firms cannot just produce something themselves. Say Tesla produces a M3 M3 killer (0 to 60mph 3.8) for USD50k (should be possible), for BMW to make their own Tesla killer, they have to kill their own ICE M3 product that sells for $65k

A touch of of innovators dilemma

 

[everman]

Did anyone else see an announcement for a third referral program?

http://electrek.co/2016/02/17/tesla...chance-to-win-a-model-x-p90d-and-spacex-tour/

An MX P90D and a SpaceX tour! Those are both right up my alley!

 

[Krugerrand]

another datapoint from factory tour about X, it's not so good though.

It's not so bad though.

- - - Updated - - -

... to turnaround the negative impact of slow X ramp up now.

Created mostly by people who don't know much of anything on the topic, but feel the need to talk about it anyway.

 

[lango]

Anyone have any ideas about the short term movement for macro, index, oil?

 

[brantse]

Did anyone else see an announcement for a third referral program?

I did hear from a TM source that there is a new referral program in the works.

edit - Apparently it's official. https://www.teslamotors.com/support/referral-program

 

[Krugerrand]

I did hear from a TM source that there is a new referral program in the works.

Yes, it's already out and being talked about. Something along the line of 3 referrals gets you a chance to draw for a tour of SpaceX, a decked out Model X, and $1200 towards a home charging system.

 

[austinEV]

I expect the hardware will be built into all cars. I don't see anyway they will roll the cost of supercharger access into the price of the base car. Remember it was a $2K option on the 60's.

Curious why this keeps coming up. There is no "supercharger hardware". There are chargers, which convert AC to DC which has option levels, but Supercharging was always a software enabled feature. It is directly charging with a large DC voltage/current. No HW necessary.

 

[dreamingof3]

Time to take the elevator UP! Hold tight longs! Squeeze them out!

 

[electracity]

Curious why this keeps coming up. There is no "supercharger hardware". There are chargers, which convert AC to DC which has option levels, but Supercharging was always a software enabled feature. It is directly charging with a large DC voltage/current. No HW necessary.

Not only the cars, but the powerwall, as well as the standard wiring for most larger residential rooftop solar systems. The Germans and CCS will likely take the next step up to 800vdc range. Tesla would expect to be on that path too long term.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Curious why this keeps coming up. There is no "supercharger hardware". There are chargers, which convert AC to DC which has option levels, but Supercharging was always a software enabled feature. It is directly charging with a large DC voltage/current. No HW necessary.

There is hardware involved. If it weren't for supercharging, the wiring from the plug to the HVJB (high voltage junction box) could be specced to 10-20 kW instead of 120 kW, and you could probably simplify the HVJB somewhat, removing the mechanism for bypassing the onboard chargers.

Removing this hardware from the base Model 3 probably wouldn't be worth the effort, though.

 

[mark]

There is hardware involved. If it weren't for supercharging, the wiring from the plug to the HVJB (high voltage junction box) could be specced to 10-20 kW instead of 120 kW, and you could probably simplify the HVJB somewhat, removing the mechanism for bypassing the onboard chargers.

Removing this hardware from the base Model 3 probably wouldn't be worth the effort, though.

Exactly - Some will remember that the original 40kWh model S specs were not supercharger capable - until they found no market and made them software limited 60s.

 

[Gerardf]

The Germans and CCS will likely take the next step up to 800vdc range. Tesla would expect to be on that path too long term.

There are a lot of issues to going to 800V. I want to see it before I believe it. Not a short-term SP issue anyway.