Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Crowded Mind]

Sorry to be that guy, but in meetings all day. Would anyone kindly summarize (without being tempted by sarcasm) what's dropping us today?

 

[aznt1217]

Sorry to be that guy, but in meetings all day. Would anyone kindly summarize (without being tempted by sarcasm) what's dropping us today?

Main thing is Oil and the Pacific Crest note stating the following:

- Model S demand is waning
- Model X delays are slowing demand
- Earnings will not look as good
- Competitors are catching up
- Stay away from TSLA

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I'm willing to bet that the Pacific Crest piece only came out today after they realized yesterday's Mortan Stanley piece didn't work to push the stock down (instead it went up towards the $200 mark with intra-day high of 199.52) and wanted to suppress the stock from breaking $200 with a piece this morning. Pacific Crest likely had wrote the report a while ago in the back burner just waiting for the right timing to be used (today). Just like Morgan Stanley, why they cannot wait until after ER to publish a report is quite suspect.

Analyst look prescient if they nail price direction and everyone forgets if they miss. So they're incentivized to swing before ER

 

[yngwie_2012]

Today's Tesla feels a lot like yesterday's Commodore.

we need a positive comment from elon, something like model x production rate is 400/week now or anything that will stop the panic selling.
Otherwise im afraid we might tank under $177 b4 the ER.

 

[Gerasimental]

The perception is out there that Tesla screwed the pooch with regards to Model X and the supplier lawsuit just reinforces that feeling. Just look at what the respectable analysts are doing - cutting their stock price, telling investors to stay away from the stock, etc. Tesla BARELY hit their own downwardly revised numbers, but only by rushing end-of-quarter deliveries. Judging by the number of QC issues from December deliveries discussed at TMC, it seems like Tesla was making a desperate attempt to push cars out of the factory that did not live up to even the most basic QC. And they came in just a few hundred above the low end of their downwardly revised guidance.

We can make whatever excuses we want for Tesla because we love Tesla. However, the bottom line is that Tesla has not been moving in a positive direction for some time as witnessed by the opinions and outcries of the owners in this forum. The negative opinions are coming from the longtime faithful who are seeing Tesla change for the worse, not better. I want Tesla to get back to being that upstart car company that constantly amazed, rarely disappointed, and where there was good news around every corner. Unfortunately, I haven't felt that way since late 2014.

Do you mean the respected analysts Adam Jonas and Brad Ericksson?
https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/brad-erickson

 

[AmpedRealtor]

Do you mean the respected analysts Adam Jonas and Brad Ericksson?
https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/brad-erickson

I cannot so easily dismiss that which comports with reality.

 

[SebastianR]

At the risk of stating the obvious / using an outdated phrase, I'm currently reminded of the quote:

I will tell you the secret to getting rich on Wall Street. You try to be greedy when others are fearful. And you try to be fearful when others are greedy

(Warren Buffett)

Just like I don't see the overboarding optimism earlier in this forum, I currently don't see the pessimism. We have come a long way. Fact is, we don't really "need" the Model X any longer - whatever happens with that car will not "make or break" the company. Maybe we should reflect a moment and ask ourselves if the fact that we are really frustrated with the long wait is not clouding our judgement on TSLA overall.

So here is my belief:
1) We don't really have any issues with the Model S - nope not even the one time effect of DK (and that it is now missing) is doing anything big to the company
2) We know that the Model X take a long time to deliver. Longer than anticipated. We also know that once they hit the road, nothing major seems to be wrong with them. I.e. if they scale production, demand shouldn't be a big issue
3) Macros don't really impact the company
4) I have no clue what the earnings call will bring

So I'm just using every dollar I can find to add to my long-term position. But that's just me. Feels a lot like 2012 all over again.

 

[jesselivenomore]

If you are convincing yourself or being convinced by others that this is all part of the plan to "trap the shorts", you are delusional.

Major short squeezes do not occur at the bottom of a 52 week range. They occur when there is high short interest at the top of a 52 week range and unexpected good news arrives. This is what happened in 2013, when TSLA was already trading at 38 (all time high) before the squeeze even started.

This is because at the top of a 52 week range, by definition almost all shorts are holding losses, so when unexpected good news propels the stock even higher, some finally capitulate and cover, while others who have deeper losses may face margin calls. This becomes a feedback loop that drives the stock ever higher (more people covering leading to more margin calls) - a short squeeze.

That isn't remotely close to the situation now. Yes short interest has ticked up to 29 million, but it was already at 27 million when TSLA was trading at 250. At 52 week lows, shorts are either making money, or losing less than before. Even if there is unexpected good news and the stock goes up, we are simply going back to where we were trading a few weeks ago. So if a short was up money, they lose some of their profits. If a short was down less, they go back to being down the same amount they were down a few weeks ago. No one is being squeezed, no forced margin calls.

If anything, the people being squeezed right now are the longs. There are plenty who are either down money, or as early investors wondering if they should take their profits. There is also stops losses that will get triggered below 180 which would create a negative feedback loop, an air pocket all the way down to 150 minimum and possibly 120. To avoid something like that we need ER to deliver just to keep the boat afloat. Because there is no way around it, price action is terrible.

 

[Car4CivilizedAge]

With all this negative sentiment, cant help but look forward to the Model 3 presentation in march. I think preorders might surprise the automotive world. When can we expect to get a glimpse on preorder numbers? I'm hoping at the Q1 conference call in may. Any thoughts?

 

[hockeythug]

We need a real leader to take over the day-to-day management duties from the engineer who has an obvious problem managing both priorities and expectations. Tesla lost George Blankenship, Jerome Guillen, and Deepak Ahuja. Judging by the state of Tesla's executive management page, it doesn't appear there is anyone left. Tesla is pissing off too many people, most of them owners, and I believe Tesla's downward spiral may have begun.

I think a separate thread needs to be created to discuss this. I don't think this whole full time CEO thing at two companies is working. I hope someone asks about this at the shareholder meeting.

 

[uselesslogin]

we need a positive comment from elon, something like model x production rate is 400/week now or anything that will stop the panic selling.
Otherwise im afraid we might tank under $177 b4 the ER.

Honestly, Elon already raised the cash they need to get through a slow Model X ramp at $242. Now the only thing he needs to do is get Model X production ramped. I wouldn't discount the possibility he buys more stock but that would be it. Especially since there is no evidence Model X production is at 400/week.

As a matter of fact in the current batch of production VINs that don't exceed 900 there is one who has a delivery date of as late as April 7th. I think it is a range so will be a Q1 delivery if all goes well but that puts Q1 Model X delivery in the 1,500 range at best.

However, who knows what the market is expecting now so as usual I have no clue which way the stock will actually go.

 

[aznt1217]

If you are convincing yourself or being convinced by others that this is all part of the plan to "trap the shorts", you are delusional.

Major short squeezes do not occur at the bottom of a 52 week range. They occur when there is high short interest at the top of a 52 week range and unexpected good news arrives. This is what happened in 2013, when TSLA was already trading at 38 (all time high) before the squeeze even started.

This is because at the top of a 52 week range, by definition almost all shorts are holding losses, so when unexpected good news propels the stock even higher, some finally capitulate and cover, while others who have deeper losses may face margin calls. This becomes a feedback loop that drives the stock ever higher (more people covering leading to more margin calls) - a short squeeze.

That isn't remotely close to the situation now. Yes short interest has ticked up to 29 million, but it was already at 27 million when TSLA was trading at 250. At 52 week lows, shorts are either making money, or losing less than before. Even if there is unexpected good news and the stock goes up, we are simply going back to where we were trading a few weeks ago. So if a short was up money, they lose some of their profits. If a short was down less, they go back to being down the same amount they were down a few weeks ago. No one is being squeezed, no forced margin calls.

If anything, the people being squeezed right now are the longs. There are plenty who are either down money, or as early investors wondering if they should take their profits. There is also stops losses that will get triggered below 180 which would create a negative feedback loop, an air pocket all the way down to 150 minimum and possibly 120. To avoid something like that we need ER to deliver just to keep the boat afloat. Because there is no way around it, price action is terrible.

I agree with everything you said (welcome back btw). Although I am suspect of the timing. I feel like all of it is cushioning in the event FY Guidance is not good. Regardless of the situation, we'll be stuck in this crazy limbo until next week.

 

[flankspeed8]

I'm willing to bet that the Pacific Crest piece only came out today after they realized yesterday's Mortan Stanley piece didn't work to push the stock down (instead it went up towards the $200 mark with intra-day high of 199.52) and wanted to suppress the stock from breaking $200 with a piece this morning. Pacific Crest likely had wrote the report a while ago in the back burner just waiting for the right timing to be used (today). Just like Morgan Stanley, why they cannot wait until after ER to publish a report is quite suspect.

Do you really believe this or is that what you tell yourself to make it feel better? You think that these big banks collude like that? In this regulatory and hostile financial environment you think any reputable investment bank is going to stake their reputation on gaming Tesla for a couple points to the downside?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

we need a positive comment from elon, something like model x production rate is 400/week now or anything that will stop the panic selling.
Otherwise im afraid we might tank under $177 b4 the ER.

Powerwall v2 announced for Jul/Aug
Model 3 confirmed for March

You should be happy that no one is absorbing these announcements and connecting the dots. Buy low, sell high. You should be praying for $177.

 

[Matias]

If you are convincing yourself or being convinced by others that this is all part of the plan to "trap the shorts", you are delusional.

Major short squeezes do not occur at the bottom of a 52 week range. They occur when there is high short interest at the top of a 52 week range and unexpected good news arrives. This is what happened in 2013, when TSLA was already trading at 38 (all time high) before the squeeze even started.

This is because at the top of a 52 week range, by definition almost all shorts are holding losses, so when unexpected good news propels the stock even higher, some finally capitulate and cover, while others who have deeper losses may face margin calls. This becomes a feedback loop that drives the stock ever higher (more people covering leading to more margin calls) - a short squeeze.

That isn't remotely close to the situation now. Yes short interest has ticked up to 29 million, but it was already at 27 million when TSLA was trading at 250. At 52 week lows, shorts are either making money, or losing less than before. Even if there is unexpected good news and the stock goes up, we are simply going back to where we were trading a few weeks ago. So if a short was up money, they lose some of their profits. If a short was down less, they go back to being down the same amount they were down a few weeks ago. No one is being squeezed, no forced margin calls.

If anything, the people being squeezed right now are the longs. There are plenty who are either down money, or as early investors wondering if they should take their profits. There is also stops losses that will get triggered below 180 which would create a negative feedback loop, an air pocket all the way down to 150 minimum and possibly 120. To avoid something like that we need ER to deliver just to keep the boat afloat. Because there is no way around it, price action is terrible.

Yep. All shorts opened within 52 weeks are in the money. All the longs opened within 52 weeks are out of the money. So no short squeeze, but long squeeze.

 

[flankspeed8]

Do you mean the respected analysts Adam Jonas and Brad Ericksson?
https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/brad-erickson

Well then, how about this one?
https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/john-murphy

- - - Updated - - -

17.58 million annual run rate for U.S. auto's. Trending higher this January than last year which was a record. That is a lot of (mostly) ICE cars that are hitting the road and will be in service for on average at least 12 years. Is it possible that by the time Tesla launches the Model 3, auto sales could have peaked and entered another sustained downtrend? I am stunned by the demand for U.S. auto's as it seem to be contradictory to the perceived weakness in the economy.

 

[sub]

my cash account is in leaps and one march call right now, hurting pretty bad there. Told my wife let's just write them off as a total loss but if/when they rebound we have our model X money because it will feel like found money. There is always a positive Glad I made a bunch on TSLA in 2013!

 

[dreamingof3]

Want to know the dead giveaway for someone who is short? They tend to throw out ridiculous price targets knowing we have already dropped $60 a share despite major positive catalysts ahead for Tesla. "150, 120"

 

[Fallenone]

Well said.

If you are convincing yourself or being convinced by others that this is all part of the plan to "trap the shorts", you are delusional.

Major short squeezes do not occur at the bottom of a 52 week range. They occur when there is high short interest at the top of a 52 week range and unexpected good news arrives. This is what happened in 2013, when TSLA was already trading at 38 (all time high) before the squeeze even started.

This is because at the top of a 52 week range, by definition almost all shorts are holding losses, so when unexpected good news propels the stock even higher, some finally capitulate and cover, while others who have deeper losses may face margin calls. This becomes a feedback loop that drives the stock ever higher (more people covering leading to more margin calls) - a short squeeze.

That isn't remotely close to the situation now. Yes short interest has ticked up to 29 million, but it was already at 27 million when TSLA was trading at 250. At 52 week lows, shorts are either making money, or losing less than before. Even if there is unexpected good news and the stock goes up, we are simply going back to where we were trading a few weeks ago. So if a short was up money, they lose some of their profits. If a short was down less, they go back to being down the same amount they were down a few weeks ago. No one is being squeezed, no forced margin calls.

If anything, the people being squeezed right now are the longs. There are plenty who are either down money, or as early investors wondering if they should take their profits. There is also stops losses that will get triggered below 180 which would create a negative feedback loop, an air pocket all the way down to 150 minimum and possibly 120. To avoid something like that we need ER to deliver just to keep the boat afloat. Because there is no way around it, price action is terrible.

 

[jhm]

Gees, the bears are sure out in force these days. I guess they need the social validation or something.

In any case, I remain patient and long. Nothing to get worked up about.