Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Scott Ales]

I, for one, am tired of waiting. I'm tired of seeing the Elon show, aka Powerwall, Powerpacks and Model X, then not seeing any actual products that a consumer can purchase. $800 million in orders in the first 6 days doesn't mean squat unless you can produce.

Elon was correct....demand is not a fair criticism of TSLA, production is.

Rant over.

Sorry, I don't believe you. "Tired of waiting"? I understand and share the frustration, but tired of waiting means what? It's just an expression. Virtually everything that I hold close as valuable to me I had to wait for. I can wait as long as it takes to have any company provide me with great things. So, are you suggesting there are people who want a product or service but will only buy them if they are produced in a timely fashion and according to stated dates? Otherwise, those interested parties will never buy that product or use the service?

Doesn't make sense. The frustration I get. Not enjoying it when it finally does become available out of principle will be rare. "I didn't get it when you said I would so forget it, I don't want it."

Just my opinion.

 

[Hogfighter]

So, are you suggesting there are people who want a product or service but will only buy them if they are produced in a timely fashion and according to stated dates? Otherwise, those interested parties will never buy that product or use the service?
QUOTE]

Yes, I am suggesting exactly that. There are literally tens of thousands of people buying a BMW X5, or a Porsche Cayenne, this year who would have purchased a Model X.

 

[Scott Ales]

So, are you suggesting there are people who want a product or service but will only buy them if they are produced in a timely fashion and according to stated dates? Otherwise, those interested parties will never buy that product or use the service?
QUOTE]

Yes, I am suggesting exactly that. There are literally tens of thousands of people buying a BMW X5, or a Porsche Cayenne, this year who would have purchased a Model X.

I also agree with you on that. But it doesn't mean they won't jump ship when the X does come out. What I am suggesting is, they will be somewhat upset but ultimately the product sitting in their neighbors driveway while they continue driving a dinosaur ICE vehicle will weigh on them, QUITE A BIT! In the end, the product will win them over even if they retain some resentment towards Tesla or Elon. They'll still buy.

 

[JRP3]

The vehicle simply won't be as feature intensive and won't have an aluminum body.

I've been thinking that Tesla could still use mostly aluminum in the 3. If Ford can sell a base F150 truck for $26K with a fully aluminum body I would think the smaller Model 3 could still have a lot of aluminum content and come in at $35K.

 

[Drax7]

geopolitical turmoil related to oil,
global warming the result mostly of burning 93 million barrels of oil per day.

An antidote to above , electric transport , tesla

I predict this background sentiment will gather momentum over time.
model 3 should sell out about immediately

 

[Krugerrand]

Yes, I am suggesting exactly that. There are literally tens of thousands of people buying a BMW X5, or a Porsche Cayenne, this year who would have purchased a Model X.

Nah, not going to fall for that. You have no idea how many people are going to buy one of those ICE's this year (which, btw, only has about 6 weeks left) rather than wait for a Model X. I will give you that we do tend to live in an instant gratification world, but frankly, I think it's time that changed anyway. Good things are worth waiting for. If people need a vehicle in the meantime to get about their life, then they have options such as leasing. If having to wait loses Tesla a sale, so be it.

 

[austinEV]

I want TSLA to go to $700/share tomorrow so I can retire tomorrow. It will take time to build out their plan. The plan is on track.

 

[Drax7]

I want TSLA to go to $700/share tomorrow so I can retire tomorrow. It will take time to build out their plan. The plan is on track.

stop thinking small

 

[TSLAopt]

I want TSLA to go to $700/share tomorrow so I can retire tomorrow. It will take time to build out their plan. The plan is on track.

Up $5-6 on less than 1mm shares traded so far... This is a great sign, especially since the 1mm share volume being printed so far really represents some substantially lower number of shares being actually moved between real buyers/sellers. This is because there are so many HFT bots involved in this stock playing both sides back and forth through their proprietary Algos all day long artificially increasing volumes (as with all stocks, but especially well known volatile ones like TSLA).
Weak longs have left and not enough new shorts coming in as we're rising.

How would the 25mm+ shares short get out at this rate?

 

[phigment]

Up $5-6 on less than 1mm shares traded so far... This is a great sign, especially since the 1mm share volume being printed so far really represents some substantially lower number of shares being actually moved between real buyers/sellers. This is because there are so many HFT bots involved in this stock playing both sides back and forth through their proprietary Algos all day long artificially increasing volumes (as with all stocks, but especially well known volatile ones like TSLA).
Weak longs have left and not enough new shorts coming in as we're rising.

How would the 25mm+ shares short get out at this rate?

You feel a squeeze coming on?

 

[AlMc]

I, for one, am tired of waiting. I'm tired of seeing the Elon show, aka Powerwall, Powerpacks and Model X, then not seeing any actual products that a consumer can purchase. $800 million in orders in the first 6 days doesn't mean squat unless you can produce.

Elon was correct....demand is not a fair criticism of TSLA, production is.

Rant over.

I don't mind the wait (that much... )

But I agree that we do need more production of these great products (meeting deadlines EM sets, then does not meet) and less hyperbole.

'More steak....Less sizzle'

 

[Scott Ales]

I chuckle to myself every time we have a green day and my trading platform shows the latest headlines that are ALL negative.

 

[Buddyroe]

Things I would buy if Tesla produced them or at least supplied the battery:

* Riding lawn mower
* Lawn tools (I already have a Stihl battery powered blower and hedger)
* Chainsaw
* Ski or fishing boat ( We're never away from our dock more than an hour. Could easily recharge for 30 minutes to an hour when needed)
* Pickup
* Scooter or small Motorcycle
* Floor Polisher ( we rent a gas powered one for our warehouse floors)
* Dyson vacuum with a Tesla battery
* Small airplane

Has anyone heard specific data on the number of reservations that were taken for the Powerwall? I don't recall anyone within the company stating the number. I know, no deposit, many will back out when the time comes to actually buy it. But I think the entire world is underestimating the potential with just this product, let alone others to come. I can't wait for the day I never buy a drop of gas for anything ever again. I don't think I am alone either.

Did you ever consider an electric outboard for your boat? We have a Briggs and Stratton 48V 3HP electric ourboard on our pontoon boat (for 8 years now). We power it with eight 6-volt golf cart batteries. I was shocked how well it pushed that big heavy boat. It is also VERY reliable, we have never had an issue with it at all. And finally, I have never used up a charge in a single day (estimate 6 hours of drive time the most we've ever used it in a single day). I can say for sure that this electric outboard was one of the best decisions I've made. Quiet, no maintenance, powerful, and very reliable. And, I didn't buy it for environmental reasons. I just like the convenience of battery power.

They don't make the B&S outboard any more. But, other companies do make them. In fact, I think some other company just bought the design from B&S because they look very similar.

As far as the other things. I also have an electric blower and hedger, but in addition, I have the Worx 40V trimmer/edger (and the 20V model also). It's better than any gas trimmer I've ever had and the edger is very convenient also.

I'm with you on the riding lawn mower and truck. I really have no idea why Tesla has not designed a simple mid-size truck to put on the S frame. When you look at how many Tacoma's and Colorado's are sold, and that Ford is thinking about bringing the Ranger back as a mid-size truck, there is a HUGE opportunity in trucks. It doesn't need to change the truck world like Tesla is trying to do with the X in the SUV (cars in general) world - just be a nice looking truck and get 200+ miles per charge. That's all - and watch them sell like hotcakes. Just keep it simple and be a Tesla. That's all.

 

[Gtoffo]

Since ER I have really started to appreciate how this stock is completely beyond my control. I used to think we had an edge with the movements of this stock. But now the underlying story has been priced in for the most part (although not completely) and the only factors moving it significantly are manipulations and algorithms.

Stock moving 10% up and down on no news...

Scary stuff...

 

[phigment]

And today's volume looks quite different to me. Usually start high, tapers off towards the middle of the day and up again at the end. It started pretty low today, and seems to be increasing with time.

 

[TSLAopt]

You feel a squeeze coming on?

Conditions are right for a squeeze at some point, whether it begins soon or next year at some point I'm not sure...but this type of upward movement on little volume is a great signal of things to come when a squeeze does start to happen...it will be the next vertical leg of the S curve for the TSLA stock price in my opinion. I wouldn't be surprised if we break out up from our current 180-280 range up to $500+ in a relatively short period of time (weeks/months) when several million short shares want to get out and momentum traders start tagging along.

 

[FluxCap]

Diarmuid was invited to speak to Congress on Capitol Hill today with the Subcommittee on Information Technology, I believe a webcast should be live at 2pm EST.

The Internet of Cars - United States House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform

Here is the PDF of his written submission.

 

[JRP3]

Glad to see Tesla talking about S. Korea:

On Wednesday, Jeffrey Straubel, chief technology officer of Tesla and one of its co-founders, said that South Korea also has "great potential" and is a market that Tesla hopes to expand into in the future, according to reports in the South Korean press. "I can't give a very specific answer on when we will exactly start selling vehicles in Korea, but this is a market that we are committed to, and we think there is a great potential here," Straubel said at an energy conference held in South Korea.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/18/teslas-success-depends-on-china.htm

 

[bh1783]

Glad to see Tesla talking about S. Korea:



http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/18/teslas-success-depends-on-china.htm

Yeah Tesla will be huge in Korea. Korea has tons of incentives for EVs (15k per vehicle), high road taxes and import duties based on engine displacement, $8/gallon gas, and discounted parking/tolls for EVs. It's also the 5th largest market in the world for cars over 100k. Plus, there are huge tax write offs for owning a vehicle.

 

[everman]

I've been thinking that Tesla could still use mostly aluminum in the 3. If Ford can sell a base F150 truck for $26K with a fully aluminum body I would think the smaller Model 3 could still have a lot of aluminum content and come in at $35K.

I agree with this. I don't think I've ever seen anything that says Elon plans on using steel for M3. All factors considered (weight, range, supply consistency) I see them sticking with all aluminum body.

- - - Updated - - -

Yeah Tesla will be huge in Korea. Korea has tons of incentives for EVs (15k per vehicle), high road taxes and import duties based on engine displacement, $8/gallon gas, and discounted parking/tolls for EVs. It's also the 5th largest market in the world for cars over 100k. Plus, there are huge tax write offs for owning a vehicle.

I agree. It's also a very tech-savvy population, with mindshare and cultural value placed on high tech solutions. The sooner they enter that market, the better.