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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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According to Bloomberg, German Economy Minister said that he presumes that Tesla would want "public funds" for the factory. This could be big...

The more I think about these negotiations with German government about the construction of GF in Germany, it becomes clearer just what an exceptional opportunity this might be. The play is clearly due to the high electricity prices in Germany and an immediate economic viability of Tesla home and commercial/industrial energy storage products, but there are several synergies here.

Providing incentives for such a factory potentially could allow Germany to invest in the highly automated manufacturing facility which will be employing highly skilled workforce, in the industry with a huge growth prospects - just the type of manufacturing Germany is known to support.

For Tesla, such a factory not only provides energy storage manufacturing capability in the most attractive European market, but also allows adjacent opportunity of manufacturing automotive battery packs in Europe, so they are not shipped from the Fremont factory. This will lower Tesla automotive costs, which will result in higher automotive margins.
 
a GF in Germany probably next year ??

Gabriel: Tesla-Gründer interessiert an Batterieproduktion in Europa
Rastatt (dpa) - Tesla-Gründer Elon Musk hat nach den Worten von Bundeswirtschaftsminister Sigmar Gabriel (SPD) sein Interesse an einer Batterieproduktion in Europa bekräftigt. Musk habe bei einem Gespräch mit Gabriel vor einigen Monaten gesagt, dass er sich sehr für eine Batterieproduktion in Europa interessiere und Deutschland einer der interessantesten Standorte wäre, sagte Gabriel am Dienstag nach einer Podiumsdiskussion beim Autobauer Daimler in Rastatt. Er habe Musk angeboten, sobald seine Planungen spruchreif wären, solle er Bescheid sagen. Das wäre voraussichtlich kommendes Jahr. Es gebe verschiedene Fördermöglichkeiten, die auch Musk in Anspruch nehmen könne.

http://www.stuttgarter-zeitung.de/i...aft.1e85e567-c2be-47b0-9d20-5889c66329d9.html
 
Would giving Tesla money be a popular German decision? Germany is a full employment. Why boost an American competitor to the most important German industry?

Tesla is probably talking to several countries.

1) Giving money to corporations is never popular.
2) Tell that to the 2M unemployed Germans.
3) Why coddle a German industry that refuses to innovate? That usually leads to permanent decline.
4) No kidding. You can't escalate the bidding war if you only have one bidder.
 
1) Giving money to corporations is never popular.
2) Tell that to the 2M unemployed Germans.
3) Why coddle a German industry that refuses to innovate? That usually leads to permanent decline.
4) No kidding. You can't escalate the bidding war if you only have one bidder.

I think Romania would be a good choice.
Relatively low wage and large population of educated unemployed. Good amount of English speaking population. Huge amount of empty land, ensuring low cost of buying and relatively stable for a while.
 
Germany would be a good fit for a battery factory for several reasons:
- Long standing tradition for high quality, high tech, high volume manufacturing.
- Most serious EU country when it comes to making a truly green transition (see solar incentives for one)
- Domestic car manufacturers will definitely want to secure access to volume production of high quality, state of the art, best bang-for-buck batteries. I'm thinking WV, BMW, Mercedes, Audi (for mainly press release reasons when it comes to Audi). These big OEMs are vital to the German national economy, employment etc. And the government are large owners. Trust me Germany's national interests and the interests of BMW/Audi/Daimler/VW do overlap to a large extent.

Slovenia could be a dark horse. They have some very attractive tax incentives in place to attract large foreign investors in modern industry projects.
 
Germany would be a good fit for a battery factory for several reasons:
- Long standing tradition for high quality, high tech, high volume manufacturing.
- Most serious EU country when it comes to making a truly green transition (see solar incentives for one)
- Domestic car manufacturers will definitely want to secure access to volume production of high quality, state of the art, best bang-for-buck batteries. I'm thinking WV, BMW, Mercedes, Audi (for mainly press release reasons when it comes to Audi). These big OEMs are vital to the German national economy, employment etc. And the government are large owners. Trust me Germany's national interests and the interests of BMW/Audi/Daimler/VW do overlap to a large extent.

Slovenia could be a dark horse. They have some very attractive tax incentives in place to attract large foreign investors in modern industry projects.


Thanks :).

Could be a smart move too as it might change the view of Tesla being a foreign carmaker to one also creating new jobs in Germany, which could help selling more cars. People from countries without their own car manufactureres might not care as much where their cars come from, but otherwise there is a bit of a national sentiment involved I guess.
 
Point 2 is very impt and probably the most compelling reason for GF in germany. Batteries for autos is small market compared to industries needing electricity and wanting to save $$ from early morning rate spikes on businesses...

Germany would be a good fit for a battery factory for several reasons:
- Long standing tradition for high quality, high tech, high volume manufacturing.
- Most serious EU country when it comes to making a truly green transition (see solar incentives for one)
- Domestic car manufacturers will definitely want to secure access to volume production of high quality, state of the art, best bang-for-buck batteries. I'm thinking WV, BMW, Mercedes, Audi (for mainly press release reasons when it comes to Audi). These big OEMs are vital to the German national economy, employment etc. And the government are large owners. Trust me Germany's national interests and the interests of BMW/Audi/Daimler/VW do overlap to a large extent.

Slovenia could be a dark horse. They have some very attractive tax incentives in place to attract large foreign investors in modern industry projects.
 
I suspect the conference in Paris will probably determine what direction any stock tied to clean energy goes over the next few months/years. There was a lot of talk about banks freeing up billions of dollars to invest in companies that will positively impact the world and address climate change. I wonder if banks/ impact investment funds, are waiting until its confirmed what the rules of the game will be going forward, and where countries stand in terms of support.

- - - Updated - - -


What does "Es gebe verschiedene Fördermöglichkeiten, die auch Musk in Anspruch nehmen könne" mean? The Google Translate version is not good.
 
I suspect the conference in Paris will probably determine what direction any stock tied to clean energy goes over the next few months/years. There was a lot of talk about banks freeing up billions of dollars to invest in companies that will positively impact the world and address climate change. I wonder if banks/ impact investment funds, are waiting until its confirmed what the rules of the game will be going forward, and where countries stand in terms of support.

- - - Updated - - -



What does "Es gebe verschiedene Fördermöglichkeiten, die auch Musk in Anspruch nehmen könne" mean? The Google Translate version is not good.


We're small but we're trying!

As a founding director at First Green Bank here in Florida which is also a member of the GABV (Global Alliance for Banking on Values) we are trying to get the word out.

First Green Bank | Press Release / Articles / News

Global Alliance For Banking on Values ~ Our Banks
 
[grumble]
I know that they use rules based on SP for the strike increments. Probably do the same for the maximum strike price. Maybe they add the 490's when the SP is over something like $260?
[/grumble]
Incorrect because today they added 310's. I found this:
How are strike prices on options determined? | Yahoo Answers
when a new option month is added there will be at least one out of the money, one at the money, and one in the money strike price.

If the trading history of the options indicates there is demand for more strike prices, additional strike prices will be created at the same to meet the anticipated demand. In general, the more volatile a the price of a stock is the more strike prices will be created.

New strike prices may be added at a later date if there is a sufficient demand. Anyone can request a new strike price be added. (There have been a few times I have had new strike prices added.)
And this:
FAQ

www.cboe.com said:
If you'd like to request new strike prices for an option that trades at CBOE, please call our Strike Price Request line, at 1-877-THE-CBOE, and select choice 4 from the main menu. Please understand that not all requests can be accommodated.
 

Antz, great article. My favorite three sentences are as follows:

Dan Dolev, an analyst with Jefferies, recently predicted that the Gigafactory’s huge volumes will help cut the cost of Tesla’s batteries in half, essentially making the Model 3 possible. That’s why Musk is pitching home battery packs. "If we can create huge demand for batteries," Straubel continues, it will create "this virtuous cycle of reducing prices further."
 
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The media told us what a sweet deal Tesla got from Nevada to build Gigafactory I. Wait until they find out the deal that Germany will be offering Tesla to build Gigafactory II. It will be no surprise if land, taxes, and construction costs/financing are offered, much like what New York State offered Solar City to build the solar panel gigafactory in Buffalo. Interesting times.
 
And in case anyone is really questioning Elon's ability to get it done, it looks like SpaceX will win the military launch contracts as ULA was unable to submit a compliant bid.

I'm pretty sure any issues on the X will be resolved in the next few weeks / month or two
 
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