Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
LOL, I agree. 8 ball is working again today. Let's see if it works for the rest of the year.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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LOL, I agree. 8 ball is working again today. Let's see if it works for the rest of the year.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
That's what you think. Avenger's investigation made me do some digging of my own, and I am now in possession of a customs document proving that Tesla's electric motors are not born in America, but in Kenya. And they are made by VW!
The stock will collapse when the shocking truth comes out.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Plot twist
VW outsources to Japan which uses Chinese made machines t produce the parts.
If your brokerage doesn't have the J18s listed yet, you can always research at Nasdaq's TSLA Option Chain site:
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/option-chain
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/option-chain
stealthology
Member
Would you please provide a link or the source for those quotes?
Thank You.
Q2 Earnings call: Elon Musk hints that Tesla could compete with Uber - Q2 2015 Earnings Call (8.5.15) AUDIO - YouTube
Read the video description for the parts on stationary storage
While I certainly hope for my sake that prices get that low, your targets seems purely hopeful and emotion driven and doesn't rely on any objective analysis. That's why people ignore you, not because you are a bear. Look at maoing, he's been a bear from time to time and people don't block him because he leaves emotion out.
Personally thinking the X is ugly is a started reason for your bearishness, but that's super subjective as well.
For the record I would be shocked but ecstatic if we dropped below 180, much less 150, but that seems extremely unlikely. I feel that if I'm lucky I MIGHT get to buy a few below 200, but that's about it.
Likely the oil rebounce is the reason. And trump threatening of nuking ISIS oil. Tsla also trades with oil price sometimes
Scott Ales
Member
I am coming around to the odd fluctuations being driven by very subtle points that often are not even visible to the public like today. If the stock and company were more traditional we would be less likely to experience these. But for the same reason I play I must also be accepting. With such a high valuation even the slightest tick can send the SP either direction.
Highly doubtful. Oil was slightly down in the beginning of today's session, by which time TSLA was already up 5+ points.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
[grumble]
I know that they use rules based on SP for the strike increments. Probably do the same for the maximum strike price. Maybe they add the 490's when the SP is over something like $260?
[/grumble]
J2018 300's calls seem like bargain now :smile::
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Option Chain - Stock Puts Calls - NASDAQ.com
Code:
Jan 19, 2018 TSLA strike last bid ask
Jan 19, 2018 TSLA 300 27.30 25.20 28.90
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Scott Ales
Member
Krugerrand
Meow
We're talking about a dynamic situation. Tesla's ability to produce vehicles changes over time. So is demand. On top of that, Tesla is able to influence demand directly via things like pricing and options and indirectly via entering new markets or building up supercharger network. Perfect execution for Tesla would be to steer demand to be just above production. Obviously there are things that aren't possible to manage to perfection like an introduction of a new model.
To justify your claims you'd have to have technical knowledge that they CAN produce that many cars but chose not to. We have evidence to the contrary straight from the source. Maybe they could ramp up Model S production while putting Model X ramp on the back burner to meet the number but that would make no sense.
Bottom line is looks to me you're making a whole lot of assumptions about how the factory operates to make your claims. Occam's razor would suggest that Tesla's story is consistent within itself and they do indeed manage demand pretty darn good and do what they do with production. No need to invent extra stories around this.
Scott Ales
Member
Just a quick note to let anyone know who they are betting against as a bear.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/13/elon-musks-10-greatest-inventions-changing-the-world.html?slide=2
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/13/elon-musks-10-greatest-inventions-changing-the-world.html?slide=2
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Tesla Motors in talks with German Government about a battery factory in Germany.
Gabriel mentioned this during a visit of Merc plant in Rastatt in Germany earlier today.
With press mentions about talks with other countries as well, it looks like Tesla still searching for the appropriate location of GigaFactory2.
Gabriel mentioned this during a visit of Merc plant in Rastatt in Germany earlier today.
With press mentions about talks with other countries as well, it looks like Tesla still searching for the appropriate location of GigaFactory2.
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So back on this China rebate thing - apparently Tesla China has similar communications problems as Tesla HQ, maybe even worse. So far, it does appear that the incentive does not require a trade-in to Tesla but does require that the purchaser get rid of an ICE or hybrid/PHEV vehicle to qualify for a discount up to 80,000 RMB, or about $12,559. That's an aggressive discount.
However, the real question is whether or not that actually hits margins as one might assume at first. Back on September 22, Tesla raised prices in China by about 5% according this article and corroborated by some forum members:
Tesla Motors Inc Raises Model S Price In China By 5% Over Yuan Devaluation
Not clear if 5% is only on the base model or if higher end models received a larger price increase.
There is a problem comparing prices across countries and just doing exchange rate conversions due to differences in how taxes and other fees are incorporated. In any case, in August, the RMB devalued by about 3.2%. So USD has weakened slightly since then, so the end effect is about 2% additional margin is in the price of the car since August. Since the introduction of the Model S in China, the exchange rate has fluctuated around 6.2 to to a low of 6.12 to a high of 6.25 before spiking to the upper 6.30s. However, if you look back in time to 2011 and earlier, the dollar was far weaker. Matter of fact, in January and February of 2014 right before Tesla launched the Model S in China, the dollar was at its weakest in 10 years. Therefore, without a true accounting of all the fees and taxes, it isn't clear just how much buffer was in the price to deal with currency fluctuation. Whatever was there, Tesla decided to take a 5% price hike, maybe as an early precaution expecting that the USD would strengthen far more than it did. But the Fed didn't raise rates, so instead of going up even higher, the exchange rate has been fluctuating in the 6.3's. It would certainly make sense for Tesla to have raised their prices in order to cover the Fed raising in September.
Now, since the exchange rate isn't so bad, it probably makes sense to provide an incentive. 80,000 RMB represents about 9.5% of the sticker price of a top spec car, which is definitely high, but can be mostly covered or even completely covered by exchange rate issues, especially if Tesla anticipated rate hikes that didn't happen. It would be nice if someone in the know would re-calculate all the fees and taxes to sort out the Model S pricing in China relative to U.S. pricing.
However, the real question is whether or not that actually hits margins as one might assume at first. Back on September 22, Tesla raised prices in China by about 5% according this article and corroborated by some forum members:
Tesla Motors Inc Raises Model S Price In China By 5% Over Yuan Devaluation
Not clear if 5% is only on the base model or if higher end models received a larger price increase.
There is a problem comparing prices across countries and just doing exchange rate conversions due to differences in how taxes and other fees are incorporated. In any case, in August, the RMB devalued by about 3.2%. So USD has weakened slightly since then, so the end effect is about 2% additional margin is in the price of the car since August. Since the introduction of the Model S in China, the exchange rate has fluctuated around 6.2 to to a low of 6.12 to a high of 6.25 before spiking to the upper 6.30s. However, if you look back in time to 2011 and earlier, the dollar was far weaker. Matter of fact, in January and February of 2014 right before Tesla launched the Model S in China, the dollar was at its weakest in 10 years. Therefore, without a true accounting of all the fees and taxes, it isn't clear just how much buffer was in the price to deal with currency fluctuation. Whatever was there, Tesla decided to take a 5% price hike, maybe as an early precaution expecting that the USD would strengthen far more than it did. But the Fed didn't raise rates, so instead of going up even higher, the exchange rate has been fluctuating in the 6.3's. It would certainly make sense for Tesla to have raised their prices in order to cover the Fed raising in September.
Now, since the exchange rate isn't so bad, it probably makes sense to provide an incentive. 80,000 RMB represents about 9.5% of the sticker price of a top spec car, which is definitely high, but can be mostly covered or even completely covered by exchange rate issues, especially if Tesla anticipated rate hikes that didn't happen. It would be nice if someone in the know would re-calculate all the fees and taxes to sort out the Model S pricing in China relative to U.S. pricing.
According to Bloomberg, German Economy Minister said that he presumes that Tesla would want "public funds" for the factory. This could be big...
Scott Ales
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