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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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So, some old guard Motor City Detroit guys who have made money from ICE car ads for decades find a way to ensure they have an unpleasant trip in a non-ICE car? Not shocking.

To be fair, there are a number of examples from enthusiastic Model S owners describing how bad the trip planning software really is. Elon over sold it with the "End of range anxiety" announcement, and it was only made worse with flawed software.
 
So, some old guard Motor City Detroit guys who have made money from ICE car ads for decades find a way to ensure they have an unpleasant trip in a non-ICE car? Not shocking.

Mr Stoklosa, just because you choose to start from a point of disbelief in the range the car tells you it has, drive like you wish you were in an ICE car, and then take your car on a route that does not yet have enough superchargers for your tastes does not mean your use case translates to the vast majority of Model S owners. I mean, how long has the country had to build gas stations? A century? Tesla has only been building the Supercharger network for a few years, all major hubs are connected without issue, and the network is growing. No credit given for this effort at all.

I found the article completely fair. He did what I would have *recommended* he do, overcharge at each stop and take the nav with a grain of salt. The worst things that happen to him are dumb trip routing which I see all the time and the car recommended that he charge for a time that caused to to immediately warn him he was at risk of not making his destination, which is also something that lots of people have reported. If I was road tripping I would do exactly what he did on the return trip, plan each node from charger to charger as an independant trip and overcharge to allow for the unexpected. If he really wanted to write a hit piece he would have done exactly what the nav recommended and probably run out of juice Broder style. Instead, he second-guessed it and used his brain to avoid problems.
 
To be fair, there are a number of examples from enthusiastic Model S owners describing how bad the trip planning software really is. Elon over sold it with the "End of range anxiety" announcement, and it was only made worse with flawed software.

I didn't finish the entire article. It's too long for me. I got to the -22% part and thought "good, now maybe Tesla will fix the trip planning issues."

I too have encountered really horrible trip planning by the car. So much so that I don't base my trips on it. It has planned trips for me that are no where near optimal and mileage estimates that our 13 year old child can spot as wrong.
 


Teslas JB Straubel To Keynote Intersolar North America | PV Buzz

Monday, July 13th, Tesla Co-Founder and Chief Technical Officer JB Straubel will deliver the keynote address at the Opening Ceremony for Intersolar North America, the most-attended solar industry exhibition and conference dedicated to the North American market.

At the keynote, JB Straubel will introduce Tesla Energy, which provides battery solutions for homes, business and utilities to store solar energy. He’ll discuss how energy storage is critical to widespread adoption of solar energy and will ultimately enable a renewable energy economy. His remarks reflect the growing focus on solar-plus-storage solutions at Intersolar. At this year’s event, storage is featured in five conference sessions and four technical workshops at InterContinental Hotel / Moscone Center plus a three-day free program at the ees Stage (Moscone West, Level 2, Alcove 2).
Straubel will deliver his remarks alongside an all-star line-up of key solar policymakers and advocates, including Bernadette del Chiaro, the executive director of the California Solar Energy Industries Association (CALSEIA); New York State Sen. Kevin S. Parker, a champion of solar policy in New York; and Professor Dr. Eicke R. Weber, the director of the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (ISE) / Germany. The Opening Ceremony is free to all pre-registered attendees and exhibitors.
 
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Yes. It would be nice to get some good news out of TMConnect. Eric: I would be willing to bet that the model X was 'on display on purpose' as it would be easy enough to cover it up during tour times. :wink:

Execution risks: This is the only TM related risk I am worried about that would affect TSLA in my mind (I am ignoring macro risks that TM can not control). It is a risk, no doubt, and while I agree with 'Chicken' that they have derisked the platform there are still risks with suppliers (ex: model D seatgate) and ramping line #2.

There's a party from 7-10 pm at Tesla HQ in Palo Alto tonight for the TMConnect group. I know that Elon has already stated that there would be no official 'reveal' for the MX, but it could be something else. Maybe they will just turn on the MX configuration at that time and let people play around with it or something. Sure, it would be cool to just be able to party at HQ, but I'm hoping there's more to it than that. We will report!
 
I'm a TSLA bull but was wondering about short-term risks to the stock and came up with the uncomfortable question in my mind: What would happen to the stock short-term if for some reason Model X launch was postponed by more than a month?

I know that Elon and company have been telling us for the last couple of months or so that Model X launch was on course for late Q3, but what if they encountered some last-minute problems with suppliers or whatever? Happy to hear your thoughts.
 
I'm a TSLA bull but was wondering about short-term risks to the stock and came up with the uncomfortable question in my mind: What would happen to the stock short-term if for some reason Model X launch was postponed by more than a month?

I know that Elon and company have been telling us for the last couple of months or so that Model X launch was on course for late Q3, but what if they encountered some last-minute problems with suppliers or whatever? Happy to hear your thoughts.

That is a valid concern Being late with the X would mean they couldn't make their 2015 production numbers. I think Elon can't continually set and miss deadline without negative consequences to the stock price.

But I think they will announce x ordering soon. I also think Elon going forward will significantly reduce his habit of pre-announcing specific product improvement release dates.
 
The bottom line from that article is "do your own navigation". Yeah. I eliminated range anxiety for myself by doing my own navigation on a nasty midwinter trip through an ice storm from Ithaca, NY to Lansing, Michigan via Canada... where the Tesla's nav system *loses maps entirely*. Paper maps, I tell you!

I see pretty much positive assessments of the car -- are the Superchargers -- in that article. Pretty negative assessment of the nav system.

"The travel itself was grand.... we’re hopeful that long trips like this one won’t include as much man-versus-machine stress fighting and mental calculation."

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I'm a TSLA bull but was wondering about short-term risks to the stock and came up with the uncomfortable question in my mind: What would happen to the stock short-term if for some reason Model X launch was postponed by more than a month?
BUYING OPPORTUNITY!!!! :)
 
Thanks for your thoughts. But is it that easy to switch to 5k more Model S in Q4 if the second production line has been prepared for the X and they're just waiting for some supplier to deliver what is needed to produce? I'm not so sure.

In any case, even if they could switch production to S easily, I tend to think that the stock would get hit hard (5-10%) when the street learned that the X launch was postponed again. Just trying to be cautious with my long turbos...
 
Thanks for your thoughts. But is it that easy to switch to 5k more Model S in Q4 if the second production line has been prepared for the X and they're just waiting for some supplier to deliver what is needed to produce? I'm not so sure.

In any case, even if they could switch production to S easily, I tend to think that the stock would get hit hard (5-10%) when the street learned that the X launch was postponed again. Just trying to be cautious with my long turbos...

The second line, as I understand it, is a hybrid line. It can run either Model S or Model X vehicles.
 

This pisses me off too. I was fairly well-informed, but I didn't recognize what was going on with global warming until the early 1990s. Big Oil's suppression of the evidence, denialism, and propaganda was actually working even on smart and skeptical people for the first decade.

The people involved in this concealment should be executed by firing squad for crimes against humanity.
 

Not surprising. Every oil company tries to campaign against climate change while simultaneously making plans for permanent ice-free Arctic oil exploration. Can't have the latter without the former happening first.

It's no different than how many southern states provide resources for farmers in dealing with changing climates (changing growing seasons, support from the impacts, etc.), but their governments will simultaneously deny any worry about climate change.
 
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