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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Bummer, but I expected as much because of the impending Model X launch. That's what everyone wants to know about, and Tesla has to carefully manage this launch in order to avoid hurting Model S sales.
The myth of production constrained. If they could sell more model S, they would make more model S
I was responding to the position that X sales can be replaced by more S sales (if X is delayed).
They are not production constrained. They are producing according to plan.
This might be exactly why the X was delayed in the first place. S is selling so well, why make the X until we get close to slow down of S growth. But that never happened and now is probably a good time as battery constraints are likely to ease.
tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
Re TMC Connect. Didn't go because it would've been an expensive long trip and I was a bit underwhelmed by the program. It seemed like just a friendly users group get-together, but not much more, without any serious participation by Tesla. The fact that there were basically no updates in the forums, no liveblogging anywhere I could find, nothing meaningful on Twitter, and certainly nothing I could find reported by the media, kinda reinforced the fact that TMC Connect was inconsequential in terms of new information, news that might affect stock price, etc. Nothing wrong with friendly user group meetings, but I'd hoped a tiny bit there'd be some sort of X glimpse or something newsworthy.
Tesla's participation was great. (And they asked attendees not to go posting their every word). Was particularly impressed with the autopilot and production presentations. Not the kind of stuff that will move the stock, but that gives confidence in Tesla's ability to get things done, that they are on the right track, and are making use of their unique advantages.
IMO, this is one of the reasons the X has been delayed. IIRC Tm projected sales of the S might peak at about 25K per year. In addition, the accolades from car magazines and CR about how great the S is puts pressure on making sure the X is near perfect on launch. These entities may have been forgiving on some of the minor annoying glitches that came with many of the first production Ss. TM knows that these entities will be less forgiving this time so they are trying to get it right from the get-go.
TM current production rate is 1100-1200 cars per week. This is about all that existing body in white line can produce (including overtime). This is the reason TM has backlog stretching to August-September-October-November.
They ARE production constrained at the moment. If for some reason MX is delayed further, once second (new) BIW line put in operation, TM can just produce more MS, as was already stated.
chickensevil
Active Member
At least the very first delay from 2013 to 2014, that was the *exact* stated reason. They were surprised at the higher take rate of the S and wanted to focus their efforts there. Then all subsequent delays was stated in a "we just want to make it perfect" or some such. Clearly they weren't pressed to push out the X since they were expanding the factory in order to handle sales from both models. Originally the factory could have only handled around 35k a year, total... Model S and X. Which is why they had to shift focus and get the factory up to speed faster and spent a lot of money in factory upgrades they never really intended to make.
@electracity, They are certainly still production constrained. If they weren't then a Model S order in the US would take 2 weeks. It would start being built right after you ordered it, and finished in 3-5 days, and then shipped to your nearest service center. The wait times have never really dropped below 1 month, and if I recall the average wait time is still somewhere around 2 months for US orders (depending on when in the quarter you buy sometimes a bit lower and sometimes a bit higher). So if the new line comes up and the X totally blows to the point where people cancel their orders in mass droves and noone wants to buy the X at all... then the would very likely have the capacity on S sales to fill out the remaining 5k in sales. The reason they don't currently make more than ~12k a quarter is because of the BIW line which is what they are working on expanding. Before that the reason they couldn't get over the 7-8k a month hurdle was because of the final assembly line being stuck at around 800 a week. Before that I think it was primarily battery supply issues and other supplier based issues that were keeping the numbers depressed.
Given that 1/2 of their US sales are still going to CA, and 1/2 of their global sales are going to NA, there is plenty of room to grow demand further, they are just letting demand growth take a slower path in order to help keep from making wait time go into 4+ months for the US. There is still tons of totally untapped areas even in the US that they haven't even tried introducing the product to and really selling it because they don't have the capacity to handle it.
There is an ordering thread where people report production times. They are not production constrained. They are on a production plan, matching planned capacity with planned sales. Last year, if they had planned for higher sales this month, they could be building more cars this month.
They will be production constrained again with the X backlog.
One other very likely factor in the stretched Model X development... a thought something like, <at this point, we may as well wait for the new battery chemistry>.
I say this as the Model X was originally supposed to follow the Model S by a year, and we know that the GF will be producing cells within 9-12 months. I would be very surprised is the GF cells are not a new chemistry. So, I think it's quite possibly that as various delays for a variety of reasons occurred (including unexpectedly high Model S volume) Tesla switched from a plan to make X with the cells chemistry used in the S to using a new cell chemistry that will be used for GF production.
I don't know where you are getting this. You are not making any sense to me. Care to elaborate?
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
when is new BIW supposed to start? Certainly before Q4. I'm guessing late August or early Sep
All TM can currently produce is 1100 to 1200 cars per week, and that is the reason they have backlog stretching into August-September-October-November. Your conclusion is wrong. They are currently production constrained.
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In the middle of July the word was that it will take 4-6 weeks to completely trouble shoot/test the new BIW line. Given the prior history of optimistic projections from the TM, my guess, similar to yours - that they will start sometime in August, may be September.
Do I really have to provide a link?
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/9489-Model-S-Delivery-Update/page779
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Very interesting statement (bold).
Can you plesase provide the source for that interesting statment?
There is a great tradition in this forum that peolpe do not only share opinions but provide sources for their statments, like you would do for any scientific paper.
May I ask if you are working in the automotive industry?
Are you used to every day issues there (new product cycle, global supply chain, Li-ion tech, global marketing, ...)?
Thanks in advance.
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