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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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CALGARYARSENAL
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chickensevil
Active Member
Oh no there are people talking in the other thread about how they will ramp slowly and there is high risk of execution failures. I tried to stress in that thread that there is realistically only two wholly new things (that we know of) in the MX that would add risk to execution. 1: The rear doors. 2: the alluded to swivel seating in the second row. If either become a problem, neither would prevent the car from being drivable and the biggest things on drivability has been wholly derisked since they are using The. Same. Platform. for the dual drive system. Not similar... Not same concepts... Not just "both are two motors and a battery pack"... The. Same. Platform. Cut and paste from the S to the X. So they now have 9+ months of running these dual motor systems with no major issues that I have heard about and therefore the biggest thing the X brought to the table has been fully derisked.
The one thing people don't realize is they took long because they were doing prep work for even more capacity and future planning... I think the team at Tesla is learning as they go and learned from the last tooling delay.
There a good chance that both cars will be going on a modified chassis. There is a good chance of a new interior on both cars (executive seats recently "discontinued"). But they can't ramp slowly and make their numbers this year.
Is the model X pretty enough? How much S demand has been waiting on the X? These are the risks, I think. They know how to make these types of cars. There will have a few initial problems. They will fix the problems.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Hi,
First I want to apologize if I offended anyone. My post was a little bit too harsh or undiplomatic :redface:.
OTOH I think there is substantial evidence that the effect of the MX production ramp issue is exaggerated, by analysts, the general public and TMC Members.
IMO this is causing an partly or largely unwarranted dampening of the stock prices. If the MX production ramp is relatively smooth and quick I think that will have a significant positive impact on the stock.
Thank You All Very Much!
First I want to apologize if I offended anyone. My post was a little bit too harsh or undiplomatic :redface:.
OTOH I think there is substantial evidence that the effect of the MX production ramp issue is exaggerated, by analysts, the general public and TMC Members.
IMO this is causing an partly or largely unwarranted dampening of the stock prices. If the MX production ramp is relatively smooth and quick I think that will have a significant positive impact on the stock.
Thank You All Very Much!
with the evidence of what appears to be a small "revamp" of the MS coming down the pipe along with the X debut, could the MS revamp be a hedge (conscious or subconscious) against potentially poor X reception? I dont think the X will get a poor reception unless there are major delivery/quality issues with it (at least not in the short term). But bringing out a MS 1.5 (if i can be so bold to call this theoretical update that) would be an excellent way to keep sales up incase X doesnt work as planned.
Just spewing some thoughts. sounds like a good/logical idea to me.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
yeah... I was really disappointed with Brad Erickson pacific crest assessment that there are new execution risks at hitting the 55k for 2015. Really?
1) Tesla already has delivered 40% of the total 55k during 1H. It's well known that tesla will ramp production during 2H. They've said this for a long time during calls. They are on track as is evident with the Q1 & Q2 delivery beats.
2) MX is not a big part of the 55k for 2015. 4-5k units. Even if Tesla has some early production ramp issues with MX, they can easily produce a few more thousand MS instead. In other words, MX production ramp is not nessasarily "critical path" to hitting 55k. MX production isn't a bottleneck to teslas 55k target.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
This was pretty brutal from Car and Driver. So much for the "End of range anxiety" http://blog.caranddriver.com/alexander-and-the-terrible-horrible-no-good-very-bad-tesla-model-s-p85d-road-trip/
doggusfluffy
Closed
So, some old guard Motor City Detroit guys who have made money from ICE car ads for decades find a way to ensure they have an unpleasant trip in a non-ICE car? Not shocking.
Mr Stoklosa, just because you choose to start from a point of disbelief in the range the car tells you it has, drive like you wish you were in an ICE car, and then take your car on a route that does not yet have enough superchargers for your tastes does not mean your use case translates to the vast majority of Model S owners. I mean, how long has the country had to build gas stations? A century? Tesla has only been building the Supercharger network for a few years, all major hubs are connected without issue, and the network is growing. No credit given for this effort at all.
I don't think a model S refresh is a hedge. With two vehicles at the same price point, any non-alignment of features kills sales on the "older" vehicle. What if the X is released with a fancier interior than the X? The S will be getting this new interior in the future, of course. S buyers will postpone purchase waiting for the upgrade.
It is possible to have non-aligned vehicles when at production capacity, however. So they could kill sales of the "old" S for a few month while they build the new X, but they won't do that. Too much possibility of unintended consequences. Not Musk-like. They will align the two vehicles at X launch, I think. I expect the S refresh to be significant. The current dash has essentially been around for years. Too many computer guys a Tesla to let that go much longer without a revamp.
Of course what Tesla wants to do, and what there is capacity to do, are not the same.
This would seem like a good weekend for Tesla to preannounce earnings. All the interviews, and media coverage from SpaceX report + Earnings beat would be a great way to maximize coverage of what is announced.
For some reason, people still don't understand that Tesla has probably received far more orders for the Powewall and Powerpack than it can produce through 2017 (possibly 2018?), unless Panasonic and other partners are able to significantly increase supply.
This means Gigafactory 1 may be operating at a full capacity, and Gigafactory 2 might be needed by the time production of the Model 3 begins. These orders probably equal tens of billions of dollars in revenue, and Elon said will result in significant profit for 2016.
All evidence suggests Tesla is preparing the Gigafactory to be 2-3 times what Tesla has officially guided for. It will be very interesting to see what happens if Tesla increases guidance by 50-100%.
Order numbers for the Powerwall and Powerpack currently matter more than Model S orders.
For some reason, people still don't understand that Tesla has probably received far more orders for the Powewall and Powerpack than it can produce through 2017 (possibly 2018?), unless Panasonic and other partners are able to significantly increase supply.
This means Gigafactory 1 may be operating at a full capacity, and Gigafactory 2 might be needed by the time production of the Model 3 begins. These orders probably equal tens of billions of dollars in revenue, and Elon said will result in significant profit for 2016.
All evidence suggests Tesla is preparing the Gigafactory to be 2-3 times what Tesla has officially guided for. It will be very interesting to see what happens if Tesla increases guidance by 50-100%.
Order numbers for the Powerwall and Powerpack currently matter more than Model S orders.
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Global Equities Chowdhry on Tesla: Co. 'Positioning Itself for a Very Strong 2H'2015,' Sees Auto Deliveries in 62-65K Unit Range for '15 'Easily' Achievable
Read more: Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Global Equities Chowdhry on Tesla: Co. 'Positioning Itself for a Very Strong 2H'2015,' Sees Auto Deliveries in 62-65K Unit Range for '15 'Easily' Achievable | Benzinga
Read more: Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Global Equities Chowdhry on Tesla: Co. 'Positioning Itself for a Very Strong 2H'2015,' Sees Auto Deliveries in 62-65K Unit Range for '15 'Easily' Achievable | Benzinga
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Just got off the factory tour. Body assembly line 2 being programmed. And, we drove by a black Model X sitting on the body assembly line 1 being worked on in between the Model S's. It had one of the falcon wing doors open. Amazing, I was struck by how much bigger the car was than I thought. Did not see the front nose as screens were blocking the front view.
For those in town for TMC Connect and taking the factory tour, please be on the look out for an open falcon wing door. The tour guide passed by the Model X quickly, probably on purpose. There was a big sign next to the Model X saying no photos allowed. Must be meant for employees because visitors are already told to keep cameras/phones away (or risk being shot by a sniper ;-)
For those in town for TMC Connect and taking the factory tour, please be on the look out for an open falcon wing door. The tour guide passed by the Model X quickly, probably on purpose. There was a big sign next to the Model X saying no photos allowed. Must be meant for employees because visitors are already told to keep cameras/phones away (or risk being shot by a sniper ;-)
Yes. It would be nice to get some good news out of TMConnect. Eric: I would be willing to bet that the model X was 'on display on purpose' as it would be easy enough to cover it up during tour times. :wink:
Execution risks: This is the only TM related risk I am worried about that would affect TSLA in my mind (I am ignoring macro risks that TM can not control). It is a risk, no doubt, and while I agree with 'Chicken' that they have derisked the platform there are still risks with suppliers (ex: model D seatgate) and ramping line #2.
sahanim
Member
Hopefully?
Heads will roll if people dont share stories from TMC Connect.
I mean.... i will be thoroughly disappointed :redface:
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