Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Agreed. I like Guy Adami and I hate to admit it, but I am coming around to liking Cramer. He has had alot of good calls recently - even though he has not been behind TSLA. Could care less about the rest of them. I am going to see if Bloomberg is on Sirius. Thanks for the heads up!

 

[eloder]

Is there any worry about China stock market contagion affecting the US macro market conditions substantially in the MX release timeframe? If so, is Tesla something that may drag down with them?

I wanted to lock in a substantial amount of profit, but at the same time I feel that on the Tesla side of things at least, it sold off at one of the worst times for the short to medium term with the MX configurator coming imminently and then a likely string of strong catalysts after that. China bounced back today but I feel that Chinese efforts to prop up the market are creating an even worse and more artificial bubble (loosening margin lending requirements, hard stop on many stock trades, etc.).

Thoughts on re-entry while dancing with China on the short term side?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I remember reading somewhere that optimists are not as good at estimating as pessimists, but optimists are more likely to get things done. Pessimists never even try.

I don't think it should be surprising to anyone that someone that achieves as much as Elon does should be a bit optimistic with schedules.

I think this is true in general.

Where Elon is concerned, I think there may be an added factor: Elon may not have a good sense of how much work people of lesser intelligence and executive function can accomplish in a given time frame.

I have a relatively high IQ, but not even close to Elon's level. I also can't work for much more than 9 hours per day without needing rest. If I had to work Elon's schedule I'd probably fall apart mentally after a week. If Elon makes projections based on Tesla employees being more like Elon, when they are in fact more like normal smart people, his estimates for project completion are going to be off by a lot. This results in unhappy shareholders when stuff isn't delivered on time.

 

[Bgarret]

I've listened to CNBC for years now and am in the financial business...I like when they have knowledgeable guests on but the 'traders' that are part of the CNBC crew that they have on everyday or regularly make me dumber to listen to...they're hired to say something and are used to fill up time between quality guest segments but it really dilutes the quality in my opinion of the content CNBC should provide...that's why I like Bloomberg TV better (as long as they're not too heavily involved in some boring tangent/topic I could care less about)

One thing to consider, and something I've never understood - the people interviewed on CNBC, whether traders, hedge fundies, mutual fund jockeys or CEOs, all have an interest in NOT telling the truth. All trades require a counter-party (unless you are Goldman Sachs and can make money on both sides of the trade, hedges of both sides and the broker for all four transactions). I've always thought it valuable to look at incentives to better understand behavior. What is the incentive for a trader or investor to tell the truth in public, unless to manipulate a position or investment strategy. If I wanted to be long Tesla and I had a place in the town square, I would get on my soapbox and preach some serious FUD to better acquire shares or get a better price on the trade, then praise them to the stars...rinse and repeat. If I was short, I would do the opposite. The people interviewed on CNBC not only have NO interest in telling you what is really going on, they have a substantial interest in misleading you.

One of the reasons I love TMC....it may be a bandwagon, but few here have any vested interest in saying anything else than what they know or what they believe. Don't watch CNBC...read SEC disclosures, study industries and look for trends, identify companies, industries and individuals you can believe in - leave the hucksters and charlatans for the infotainment they are. If you are looking to Joe Kernan, Rick Santelli and Larry Kudlow for your investment advice, then get ready for a bunch of Exxon, Ford, GE and B of A as your innovation leaders. These guys have traded an innovative idea since the pet rock.

 

[Citizen-T]

I think this is true in general.

Where Elon is concerned, I think there may be an added factor: Elon may not have a good sense of how much work people of lesser intelligence and executive function can accomplish in a given time frame.

I have a relatively high IQ, but not even close to Elon's level. I also can't work for much more than 9 hours per day without needing rest. If I had to work Elon's schedule I'd probably fall apart mentally after a week. If Elon makes projections based on Tesla employees being more like Elon, when they are in fact more like normal smart people, his estimates for project completion are going to be off by a lot. This results in unhappy shareholders when stuff isn't delivered on time.

And then there is the fact that, as a rule, humans suck at estimating.

 

[Lump]

Futures up.
S&P 500 +1%
Shanghai +5%

 

[MikeC]

Tesla Hires Ex-Burberry Executive to Lead North American Sales - Bloomberg Business

 

[Derek Vinyard]

we still have the highest 12M average PT ever, even though Pacific Crest's latest downgrade - from "overweight" to "sector weight" - is missing the price target. Erickson's last PT was $293 ("overweight"), down from $300 ("outperform"), down from $316 ("outperform").
On the other hand see Rod Lache's PT and recommendation history. For example, he recommended a "buy" last year when he cut his PT from $310 down to $$245. Now, he is increasing it to $280 but suggests a "hold". Funny guy.

 

[mibaro2]

Nice bounce in premarket by $6.

 

[AlMc]

Max Pain for expiry today starts at $265 this AM. Let us hope that works in our favor, for a change:wink:

 

[InTheShadows]

I think this is true in general.

Where Elon is concerned, I think there may be an added factor: Elon may not have a good sense of how much work people of lesser intelligence and executive function can accomplish in a given time frame.

I have a relatively high IQ, but not even close to Elon's level. I also can't work for much more than 9 hours per day without needing rest. If I had to work Elon's schedule I'd probably fall apart mentally after a week. If Elon makes projections based on Tesla employees being more like Elon, when they are in fact more like normal smart people, his estimates for project completion are going to be off by a lot. This results in unhappy shareholders when stuff isn't delivered on time.

I think the book explains the timelines very well. Elon likes to hear things are moving along as planed, so the engineers give him a better report than they actually should. The "keep Elon happy timeline", Then he gets excited about it and tells the public.

 

[Drax7]

If i understand correctly, elons desk is right on the assembly line, where the manufacturing problems originate and get resolved.
He is very much hands on.
The manufacturing and assembly and supply chain processes are extremely complex. Tens of thousands of things have
to go right. Watch some of the manufacturing videos and see if you can get your head around the complexity.
The possibility of something going wrong exist, that probability is greater than zero, and debugging a new production
run like the model x will take many iterations.
Making estimates on a new , not yet manufactured product, can be hazardous . All else be optimistic, though express
some caveats, which he does.

Software is more of the same.

 

[tinm]

Tesla Hires Ex-Burberry Executive to Lead North American Sales - Bloomberg Business

“This makes all the sense in the world,” said Scott Galloway, a professor of marketing at New York University’s Stern School of Business, in a phone interview. “Tesla is not an automobile company, it’s a luxury company.”

Wait, what? I thought it was an energy company?

 

[electracity]

Wait, what? I thought it was an energy company?

What? I thought I had joined a cult.

 

[ggies07]

Pretty cool I get to share a birthday with Nikola Tesla. Here is a great quote of his:

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Wait, what? I thought it was an energy company?

Scott Galloway did an interesting, and fast TED talk.

But I think he's misreading Tesla. It has some luxury elements but it's much more complex than that. If you're thinking in extremes, it's really is way closer to a cult than a luxury company.

 

[austinEV]

That remains to be seen. There are quite a few he hasn't followed through on yet.

My car still doesn't back out of the garage on its own. It doesn't even parallel park on its own, which other cars have been doing for years.

99% of Superchargers don't have a single solar panel on them, which wasn't a promise per-se, but if you listen to Elon talk about the future you would think they would be standard equipment.

Not saying I don't love the car. I just take everything Elon says with a grain of salt.

I don't think they should do solar until the battery storage is ready. I suspect they feel the same way. No rush on this; do it right.

 

[MitchJi]

Hi,

There is a short discussion (4 or 5 posts) in this thread about the speed of the MX production ramp, comparing it to the MS ramp:
"2015 Q2 Discussion thread for Delivery numbers, Earnings Report and Conference Call"

I decided to post my reply here, because it's an important issue. EM said at either the last SH Meeting or the last Conference Call that they are doing a lot more testing as compared to the MS. He said that this time they have a small fleet (300-400) cars that are getting lot of miles.

My opinion is that the second time you do something if you can't make substantial improvements to big problems that you had the first time you are pretty dumb. The MS was the first car they built and their first associated assembly line. They just finished a second, improved assembly line which they will use to produce both the MS and the MX. Do we think they don't know that they had some major issues or that they are incapable of at least making huge improvements the second time around? If you believe that they are incapable of learning from or improving after their previous missteps I don't understand why you would want to invest in the company.

 

[pGo]

Hi,

There is a short discussion (4 or 5 posts) in this thread about the speed of the MX production ramp, comparing it to the MS ramp:
"2015 Q2 Discussion thread for Delivery numbers, Earnings Report and Conference Call"

I decided to post my reply here, because it's an important issue. EM said at either the last SH Meeting or the last Conference Call that they are doing a lot more testing as compared to the MS. He said that this time they have a small fleet (300-400) cars that are getting lot of miles.

My opinion is that the second time you do something if you can't make substantial improvements to big problems that you had the first time you are pretty dumb. The MS was the first car they built and their first associated assembly line. They just finished a second, improved assembly line which they will use to produce both the MS and the MX. Do we think they don't know that they had some major issues or that they are incapable of at least making huge improvements the second time around? If you believe that they are incapable of learning from or improving after their previous missteps I don't understand why you would want to invest in the company.

I believe capability is not a concern for many. What is at stake is if Tesla can quickly raise the production level to meet 55K target. Last time they added the D model, we know that even though D was a super upgrade, the ramp wasn't so good in Q4. In the short term, you have to worry about this. In the long term, who cares.

 

[Bobbyducati]

nice steady climb on low volume. today could be mildly refreshing.