Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Robert.Boston]

Moderator's Note

I've moved a big pile of posts discussing the ER and CC over to the dedicated thread for that: 2014 Q3 Earnings Report and Conference call discussion thread

 

[chickensevil]

Well shorts are really trying to cause panic selling... This is really nail biting... but looks to have already started to recover a bit.

 

[TSLAopt]

Well shorts are really trying to cause panic selling... This is really nail biting... but looks to have already started to recover a bit.

Im not a technical trader but I think from an emotional sentiment perspective, assuming the macro market doesn't collapse anytime soon, this 230-240 range we saw leading up to this disappointing earnings report, is a new floor for the stock. I don't see any reasons from here why we'd dip below 230 ever again if we hold onto this 240-245 range for the rest of today.

emotional sentiment on TSLA will only improve from here over the next several months: ramping up volumes, deliveries of P85D and all the reviews, turning on auto pilot, new software update surprises, Detroit auto show speculation, then Q4 ER speculation which will certainly be better than Q3 in terms of quantity and gross margins along with outlook for 2015 given, further Giga factory progress reported, more Superchargers and service centers in China, we get closer to model 3 concept reveal, model x pricing and options released, first x test drives, etc.

 

[austinEV]

Im not a technical trader but I think from an emotional sentiment perspective, assuming the macro market doesn't collapse anytime soon, this 230-240 range we saw leading up to this disappointing earnings report, is a new floor for the stock. I don't see any reasons from here why we'd dip below 230 ever again if we hold onto this 240-245 range for the rest of today.

emotional sentiment on TSLA will only improve from here over the next several months: ramping up volumes, deliveries of P85D and all the reviews, turning on auto pilot, new software update surprises, Detroit auto show speculation, then Q4 ER speculation which will certainly be better than Q3 in terms of quantity and gross margins along with outlook for 2015 given, further Giga factory progress reported, more Superchargers and service centers in China, we get closer to model 3 concept reveal, model x pricing and options released, first x test drives, etc.

Agree. The bad news is out and the near term is full of upside.

Remember, our shares are like an options play on the 2020 future where TM is a major auto manufacturer. Every quarter without a material problem derisks that play.

 

[chickensevil]

Im not a technical trader but I think from an emotional sentiment perspective, assuming the macro market doesn't collapse anytime soon, this 230-240 range we saw leading up to this disappointing earnings report, is a new floor for the stock. I don't see any reasons from here why we'd dip below 230 ever again if we hold onto this 240-245 range for the rest of today.

emotional sentiment on TSLA will only improve from here over the next several months: ramping up volumes, deliveries of P85D and all the reviews, turning on auto pilot, new software update surprises, Detroit auto show speculation, then Q4 ER speculation which will certainly be better than Q3 in terms of quantity and gross margins along with outlook for 2015 given, further Giga factory progress reported, more Superchargers and service centers in China, we get closer to model 3 concept reveal, model x pricing and options released, first x test drives, etc.

Oh for sure there was no reason for it to dive down too terribly far, but I was worried in the early minutes that they would suppress the stock and end up keeping it sub 230 on some sort of false negative sentiment. I am happy to report that it does seem to have failed in keeping the stock down and we are up about where I would have pegged the stock to be on the low side, and hoping that we go higher from here.

There does seem to be a decent amount of resistance brewing in the 244-245 level, and I really hope we can break out of this today.

 

[Curt Renz]

Well shorts are really trying to cause panic selling... This is really nail biting... but looks to have already started to recover a bit.

The hedge funds that had placed bad bearish bets yesterday appeared to push down TSLA during the pre-market and at the opening of regular trading this morning. Like clockwork, retail stop loss limits would have been triggered. That would have allowed the hedge funds an opportunity to quickly cover their positions before other traders and investors awakened and took the price back to near its level seen during after-hours yesterday. Trading volume was massive while this game was being played, and provides further evidence of what likely happened.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Goldman Sachs and Northland Securities raise their PTs

O, the golden boys are making some progress. From PT$210 to PT$216. Good boys...you'll make it one day!:biggrin: (have a look below)
Northland raised its PT from $253 to $298!
Andrea James reiterates her PT at $325.

 

[ckessel]

O, the golden boys are making some progress. From PT$210 to PT$216. Good boys...you'll make it one day!:biggrin: (have a look below)
Northland raised its PT from $253 to $298!
Andrea James reiterates her PT at $325.

I was just going to ask whether, Q3/Q4 numbers aside, given the guided 50% increase in 2014 and again in 2015, would that be reason for any analysts to revise their price targets?

I guess the answer is yes.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

+ Adam Jonas. Confirms his PT $320

Morgan Stanley's Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) analyst Adam Jonas, arguably the ax in the stock, weighed in on the stock post third quarter results. He noted the print featured slightly lower 2014 deliveries, materially higher cash burn and a 1 quarter delay to Model X launch. Most of these, however, were expected and everything else (margins, forward demand, product enhancements) appears stronger than expected, he said.Jonas said if the stock does not drop below the $200 level in the next couple of days, they think it may not happen for a while.
"Many investors we speak with seem convinced of the Tesla investor thesis, but just needed to see the stock with ‘a 1 handle’ on the share price," he commented. "We think this may not happen folks. The high level of nervousness built up on N. American demand, production disruption and margin miss are either no worse than feared, or materially better. Behind the scenes, Tesla continues to take steps to build high quality performance vehicles and a level of brand authenticity unmated by the vast majority of the global auto industry. The rest of the industry (premium and mass alike) are watching what Elon Musk and his team are accomplishing with a mixture of awe and concern."
Key positives in the quarter were:

• N. American Model S demand far stronger than we expected;
• Gross margin of 23% was in line with our targets (ex ZEV credits);
• 2015 outlook for 50% Model S growth is materially stronger than we expected;
• Customer deposit balance remained stable at ~$227m.

Key negatives in n the quarter were:

• Revised down 2014 Model S delivery forecast to 33k from 35k previously;
• Cash consumption around $300m in the quarter vs. our more neutral cash flow estimate
• Model X launch delayed by 1 quarter

The firm maintained an Overweight price target of $320

 

[chickensevil]

I was just going to ask whether, Q3/Q4 numbers aside, given the guided 50% increase in 2014 and again in 2015, would that be reason for any analysts to revise their price targets?

I guess the answer is yes.

Now if only the stock price would start to catch up with the PT...

 

[ckessel]

The stock seems to be steadily dropping. We peaked around the same price we had Monday morning. I'm not sure there's much reason to expect it'll bounce up again without a big analyst upgrade.

 

[aznt1217]

The stock seems to be steadily dropping. We peaked around the same price we had Monday morning. I'm not sure there's much reason to expect it'll bounce up again without a big analyst upgrade.

Not sure if you noticed but typically speaking, Tesla drops around lunch time (NY time) for some stupid reason.

 

[mershaw2001]

Not sure if you noticed but typically speaking, Tesla drops around lunch time (NY time) for some stupid reason.

Traders on the west coast come online?

 

[mershaw2001]

i want to offer an explanation for bearishness now: the pipeline was emptied to some degree this past quarter (7200 produced, 7800 delivered). This is walking backwards. Elon would not reveal current production numbers. Should these be lower than he expects, he won't have the pipeline buffer to work with in order to massage the numbers.

 

[tgp1019]

According to Benzinga there is a post on sina.com says only 1000 of 3500 imported Tesla cars sold. Can someone verify the article in Chinese?
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[perdru]

According to Benzinga there is a post on sina.com says only 1000 of 3500 imported Tesla cars sold. Can someone verify the article in Chinese?
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Speculation: Tesla selling backstock on Singles Day

 

[InTheShadows]

I think there is a lot of incentive for the MM to try and keep TSLA in the 230-240 range tomorrow so they can keep the money they made off of the premiums that were so high for the ER. I think early next week we might get to see what the stock really wants to do.

Is anyone else feeling this way?

 

[ckessel]

It's like yesterday never happened. We're basically at Tuesday's market close.

 

[maoing]

1000 registered doesn't mean 1000 sold.

According to Benzinga there is a post on sina.com says only 1000 of 3500 imported Tesla cars sold. Can someone verify the article in Chinese?
ÌØ˹À*ÔÚ»ª¹©¹ýÓÚÇó:½ø¿Ú³¬3500Á¾ ÉÏÅƽöǧÁ¾|ÌØ˹À*|Ììè_Òµ½ç_ÐÂÀ˿Ƽ¼_ÐÂÀËÍø

 

[FANGO]

I think there is a lot of incentive for the MM to try and keep TSLA in the 230-240 range tomorrow so they can keep the money they made off of the premiums that were so high for the ER. I think early next week we might get to see what the stock really wants to do.

Is anyone else feeling this way?

I hope so, since my play this week was an iron condor. I bought back the top part today though so why don't we head up to say 1000/share tomorrow. Everyone okay with that idea?