I'm not short, but hedged before today. The 28% Q4 margin target has a lot of P85D deliveries built-in. Conversely, lower margin S85s, that converted to S85D orders, will be affecting the Q1 2015 result. This swaps low and high margin cars between Q4 and Q1 2015. So, this is reasonable Q4 guidance, but perhaps one-time.
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Citizen-T
Active Member
From a technical perspective this means that there is no event on the horizon that has enough potential energy to knock us below the 200-day. That means that we should see a return to the trend that has been going on since mid 2013. We are at the bottom of that channel right now, the bias is towards moving much higher over the next few months.
I think we need to retest the top of the channel now. Though it will take some time.
I think we need to retest the top of the channel now. Though it will take some time.
If we could make it there by the 22nd I'd be pretty happy....at least get us to 270 ok everyone?
edit: hmm, Elon says the tmall Tesla listings are from resellers and not Tesla itself? Or did he misunderstand the question? Interesting because I always thought it seemed like those weren't officially from Tesla...just seemed uncharacteristic to me.
edit 2: "buy now if you're in Europe because the price is going up" heh.
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Words of HABIT
Active Member
One of the better spins on latest ER from Market Watch's Philip van Doorn.
Tesla’s stock is somehow both speculative and a good value - MarketWatch
"Shares of Tesla closed at $230.97 Wednesday, up 54% so far this year. The stock trades for about 8.5 times sales, which is a high valuation, and GAAP profits are nowhere in sight. However, that stock price may seem downright cheap a few years from now."
Cheers for tomorrow and a bright future.
Tesla’s stock is somehow both speculative and a good value - MarketWatch
"Shares of Tesla closed at $230.97 Wednesday, up 54% so far this year. The stock trades for about 8.5 times sales, which is a high valuation, and GAAP profits are nowhere in sight. However, that stock price may seem downright cheap a few years from now."
Cheers for tomorrow and a bright future.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Sheesh, what's it take to knock this stock price down to get a bargain? Come on bears, delivery miss, Q4 projection drop, X delay, cutting green and brown because of obvious low demand...the sky is falling.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
The market's complete lack of enthusiasm for TSLA was also evident for much of this week. A poor Q3 was expected, and that didn't happen.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Truth. I tried to get some at 219, missed it, and kept waiting for another opportunity.
Probably also true.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
To the person who told me about what you did pre earnings in a reputation comment. Congrats. Take some off the table so you are not too stressed. It's a long time to Q4
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
So you think a major design and structural change to the vehicle would speed things up eh?
chickensevil
Active Member
Seems people are working hard to drop the pre-market on low volume. I hope this doesn't stick and we get a great run today.
I am afraid, that's what we will see today IMO. I have been actually puzzled by the move from last night. I somehow think that the earnings was a mixed bag and we are going to stay in limbo. The next major catalyst has been moved out to Q2-Q3 next year.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
On a day like this it could make a lot of sense for someone invested on the short side to use some capital to move ("manipulate") the pre-market in the desired direction (down). With a "mixed bag" ER investors will be looking for clues on how to interpret it with regards to stock value, and one of the things people will look for is pre-market moves. That's where the herd mentality will come in to play.
The financial media is putting a negative spin on the conference call. The la times (small caps, for emphasis) referred to Elon Musk as "prickly". The exact opposite of my impression.
I was just gonna say that it's all over the place in pre-market...and start to regret not having sold my certificates this morning when the pre-market price was above 245...
So I guess we'll have to wait for the first half an hour of trading to see the real tendency and effect of the ER and CC.
I had hedged with some weekly puts (230): do not know yet if I should get rid of them asap and at least get some money back.
For post earnings, volume isn't TOO crazy. I think people are just parsing through trying to understand what yesterday was about.
Once people realize its about preparation for insane growth and about creating a great product share appreciation will follow. For those who are liquid and are long just see this period as an extended sale
so you can still get in before the stock skyrockets.
The big message here was the 2nd gen motor as a precursor to the 3 and 30% gross margin improvements WITHOUT battery tech and earlier than expected GF projected start and modular build. This has the potential to seriously make the Model S and X high margin vehicles to effectively finance improvements and Model 3 scale.
Once people realize its about preparation for insane growth and about creating a great product share appreciation will follow. For those who are liquid and are long just see this period as an extended sale
so you can still get in before the stock skyrockets. The big message here was the 2nd gen motor as a precursor to the 3 and 30% gross margin improvements WITHOUT battery tech and earlier than expected GF projected start and modular build. This has the potential to seriously make the Model S and X high margin vehicles to effectively finance improvements and Model 3 scale.
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