Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[dmunjal]

That paragraph is hilarious:

"In anticipation of this effort, we now expect Model X deliveries to start in Q3 of 2015, a few months later than previously expected. This also is a legitimate criticism of Tesla – we prefer to forgo revenue, rather than bring a product to market that does not delight customers. Doing so negatively affects the short term, but positively affects the long term. There are many other companies that do not follow this philosophy that may be a more attractive home for investor capital. Tesla is not going to change."

It's like they were expecting the street to take this report badly, and the street seems to be liking it (at least enough to bring us back to where we started the day).

Facebook said that last week and got killed.

 

[FluxCap]

Not intending to play devil's advocate or anything but asking out of curiosity....

Despite the low sentiment going into ER, slightly missing 7,800 deliveries, +.02 EPS, cut deliveries by 2,000 for 2014, why is TSLA up after hours? I'm used to better news punishing the stock.

JTE why did you ask this twice?

This is a solid, no real surprises ER other than the fact that I think we were partially oversold on expectations of some catastrophic deliveries miss this quarter, which was silly. And, generally, investing in TSLA tomorrow became less risky tonight.

 

[jimmyjohn]

Someone posited that there really isn't any more "easy money" to be made on TSLA, anymore.

Originally, I thought that was only to the upside.

I'm thinking that --- as time goes by --- the "easy money" on the downside is decreasing.

I'm long TSLA --- looking forward to the D and the X.

It's going to be fun.

 

[AlMc]

Not intending to play devil's advocate or anything but asking out of curiosity....

Despite the low sentiment going into ER, slightly missing 7,800 deliveries, +.02 EPS, cut deliveries by 2,000 for 2014, why is TSLA up after hours? I'm used to better news punishing the stock.

I would agree. Everyone did a good job this time lowering expectations. I have been watching the price action...all over the place.

 

[Johan]

I wish I could just get out all my short-term calls right now... When the market digests this I don't see them being happy with missing guidance by 5-7% and with X delay... Sorry, that's just how I feel.

 

[chickensevil]

Not intending to play devil's advocate or anything but asking out of curiosity....

Despite the low sentiment going into ER, slightly missing 7,800 deliveries, +.02 EPS, cut deliveries by 2,000 for 2014, why is TSLA up after hours? I'm used to better news punishing the stock.

The market is just as confused on how to handle this as anyone, but the big key is this counts as a beat on EPS and Revenues from analyst consensus so without taking any comments from Elon (which the CC with totally pound the stock all over again the bots and algos are likely to just take these two numbers as their major driving force right now.

 

[pz1975]

I would agree. Everyone did a good job this time lowering expectations. I have been watching the price action...all over the place.

The actual numbers here look worse than Q3 of 2013 when the stock got hammered. The difference is likely the stock price build-up to that point due to huge expectations for the ER and the f*res. This year, the stock has plummeted recently due to lowered expectations and so maybe the stock will go up despite overall "average" numbers. Very interesting.

 

[austinEV]

Not intending to play devil's advocate or anything but asking out of curiosity....

Despite the low sentiment going into ER, slightly missing 7,800 deliveries, +.02 EPS, cut deliveries by 2,000 for 2014, why is TSLA up after hours? I'm used to better news punishing the stock.

This is in line with my theory that there would be a relief rally once the expected bad new was out. Its the reverse of "buy on the rumor, sell on the news". We have been seeing sell on the rumor buy on the news since the doubt is removed and we can get back to valuing TSLA based on the medium term.

 

[justthateasy]

This is in line with my theory that there would be a relief rally once the expected bad new was out. Its the reverse of "buy on the rumor, sell on the news". We have been seeing sell on the rumor buy on the news since the doubt is removed and we can get back to valuing TSLA based on the medium term.

Hence why I will never fully understand the market. :scared:

 

[EarlyAdopter]

The actual numbers here look worse than Q3 of 2013 when the stock got hammered. The difference is likely the stock price build-up to that point due to huge expectations for the ER and the f*res. This year, the stock has plummeted recently due to lowered expectations and so maybe the stock will go up despite overall "average" numbers. Very interesting.

Psychology, sentiment, and expectations are key. It's not all agorithms and bots.

The stock had priced in a substantial miss with recently lowered expectations driven by a lot of misinformation and FUD. Instead we got something altogether inline with original expectations for the quarter, back when the stock was $250+.

 

[jimmyjohn]

Psychology, sentiment, and expectations are key. It's not all agorithms and bots.

The stock had priced in a substantial miss with recently lowered expectations driven by a lot of misinformation and FUD. Instead we got something altogether inline with original expectations for the quarter, back when the stock was $250+.

Regress to the mean ---- I see, and like, the lack of surprises coupled with an accelerating future.

 

[eepic]

76m worth of ZEV credits helped drive that .02 eps.

Was a big unknown.

TMC knew, we had a thread on it. I'm gonna pat myself on the back for reminding folks this morning of this and the 'surprise profit' in the Q3 estimates thread

The stock movement baffles me though, I actually don't like what's in the letter, particularly the Model X delay. DJ newswire is highlighting improved margin guidance

"Shares of Tesla Motors ( TSLA) have sped ahead in after-hours trading after the upstart automaker beat earnings forecasts and raised its margin guidance."

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Its a miss IMO. specially q4 delivery.

Now, I cannot take them by word on timing. The GF thing being early a bit may just be a relief note which has no value. We'll see in next few quarters.

Model X was speculated to be delayed including from Jonas. I don't like this earnings. Elon needs to beat his words. He somehow over-promises and under-delivers. Thank god thats the opposite when it comes to actual product.

The market so far seems to like the numbers, in after hours trading, but it sounds like you want to talk down the numbers. Hope you didn't take an (opportunistic) short position.

 

[Perfectlogic]

A lot of negativity about the quarter, I think it was positive overall, sure the Model X was delayed again and that is a negative, bottomline earnings are a bit pressured due to one time expenses, but guidance on margin was good with 28% at the end of Q4 which should go higher in 2015. I think key points was that they expect Model S sales to grow more than 50% next year and for their sales to grow at this rate for years to come, that means more than 100k S/X sales in 2016, that high margin revenue alone is worth this market cap, and as we all know that is just the beginning. The Gigafactory should start production in 2016 already, this is also great news.

Edit: LikeaustinEV says the sentiment was extremely going into this earnings report, the $50 drop over the last 6 weeks made no sense at all, Tesla is in a much better position than they have ever been in, I too think its time for a relief rally.

 

[eepic]

The market so far seems to like the numbers, in after hours trading, but it sounds like you want to talk down the numbers. Hope you didn't take an (opportunistic) short position.

I have to agree that for us informed crowd I'm not a fan of the numbers in this newsletter wrt ramp-up issues, further MX delay. Maybe it's the fact that they re-affirmed (slightly lowered) fantastic growth we know and understand here, but could be comforting news of growth the street.

Of course, the news is fine long term, they are doing all the right things and just need to keep executing toward Gen 3. I did like the Gigafactory being ahead of schedule for now.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

A lot of negativity about the quarter, I think it was positive overall, sure the Model X was delayed again and that is a negative, bottomline earnings are a bit pressured due to one time expenses, but guidance on margin was good with 28% at the end of Q4 which should go higher in 2015. I think key points was that they expect Model S sales to grow more than 50% next year and for their sales to grow at this rate for years to come, that means more than 100k S/X sales in 2016, that high margin revenue alone is worth this market cap, and as we all know that is just the beginning. The Gigafactory should start production in 2016 already, this is also great news.

You hit the nail on the head. And it's surprising that the market also seems to look at it this way, as they are too often short term oriented. Let's hope the short term oriented (sensational headline oriented) financial journalists don't change the tune.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Looks like we'll be hitting a new TMC milestone today: post #10,000 in this thread :biggrin:

 

[pz1975]

For some perspective, the current AH stock price of 243ish is about where we on Monday. So although this looks like a beat, if it stays in this area going forward the next week or so, then essentially it is just trading flat since the downward movement the past 2 days was probably in anticipation of a big miss.

 

[Lump]

Contrarian in me wants to pick up some Dec Puts, I guess I have to wait till morning.

 

[BlueTan85]

10000!