Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Johan]

Strange that Toyota isn't revealing how much of their stake they sold. I don't get that. Leads to negative speculation that is probably unwarranted.

It's a very very strange press release to do: "We have sold some shares in Tesla". What could be the point of such a press relase if not to discredit or create FUD? I also sold "some shares" a while back (300 to be exact). Perhaps there will be a proper statement by Toyta, or journalist will ask questions?

 

[Cosmacelf]

If Toyota is a significant shareholder in terms of percentage ownership (I think above 5%) then they will have to file public SEC forms detailing their sales. Search in the public Edgar database...

 

[Curt Renz]

Thanks for that information. I passed it along to my Illinois state governor, legislators and village mayor and trustees. The first to respond was the guy who beat me in my 2012 run for state representative. He's asking me all the right questions, and appears to be seriously looking into developing a similar law here in Illinois. He earlier sponsored a bill to put electric car charging stations on major Illinois highways. I told him that this time I would vote for him. That won't be hard since he is unopposed. Actually, we've become friends.

Others here may want to contact their state and municipal officials about creating laws mandating electric car charging infrastructure.

I also wrote Illinois politicians regarding the new anti-Tesla law in Michigan. Jim Oberweis is an Illinois state senator running for United States senator. I used to interview him on my financial TV show in his capacities as a stock brokerage owner and mutual fund manager. Here is his reply to my email:

Dear Curt:

I support free market place competition and I believe Michigan acted unconstitutionally to enact the “anti-Tesla” legislation involving direct purchases of automobiles.

I assume Tesla will be walking into Federal Court with a request for a TRO and permanent injunction, and I believe they should get it.

I don’t know if we need a new law because I believe what Michigan did is already a violation of the Interstate Commerce Clause.

If the court doesn’t throw out the Michigan law, I will work to make sure there is free and unbiased competition and work on legislation to insure it.

Jim

 

[ggies07]

I also wrote Illinois politicians regarding the new anti-Tesla law in Michigan. Jim Oberweis is an Illinois state senator running for United States senator. I used to interview him on my financial TV show in his capacities as a stock brokerage owner and mutual fund manager. Here is his reply to my email:

Dear Curt:

I support free market place competition and I believe Michigan acted unconstitutionally to enact the “anti-Tesla” legislation involving direct purchases of automobiles.

I assume Tesla will be walking into Federal Court with a request for a TRO and permanent injunction, and I believe they should get it.

I don’t know if we need a new law because I believe what Michigan did is already a violation of the Interstate Commerce Clause.

If the court doesn’t throw out the Michigan law, I will work to make sure there is free and unbiased competition and work on legislation to insure it.

Jim

That's awesome and great to hear.

 

[uselesslogin]

So for next week, possibly Monday, we can expect Consumer Reports to release their reliability report. This is probably not an upside catalyst but could be a downside catalyst. What does anyone think?

 

[The Blue Owl]

Can anyone explain this price action? Going steadily downwards, against the NASDAQ, on very low volume. This on a background of strange Adam Jonas pronouncements, divesting from major holders, and the occasional very large lot coming out of nowhere, like the one today around 11:52.

I feel like the poker player trying to understand who the sucker is, and I don't like the feeling.

 

[ADP]

In my experience, individual investors almost always end up holding the bag when it comes to the short term game. Between attempts of larger players to manipulate the system, the unpredictable results of bot bashes, and sheer irrationality, the short term game is a lot like gambling.

I say trust your instincts and don't play their game.

I couldn't agree with this statement any more. The large players can make money on the price action going up, down and sideways or else they wouldn't be in the business. They prey on the individual investors. Sorry, I'm not sure anyone on this thread wants to hear this.

 

[Curt Renz]

In my experience, individual investors almost always end up holding the bag when it comes to the short term game. Between attempts of larger players to manipulate the system, the unpredictable results of bot bashes, and sheer irrationality, the short term game is a lot like gambling.

I say trust your instincts and don't play their game.

I couldn't agree with this statement any more. The large players can make money on the price action going up, down and sideways or else they wouldn't be in the business. They prey on the individual investors. Sorry, I'm not sure anyone on this thread wants to hear this.

The pros thrive on price volatility. Quiet markets and gently moving stocks are anathema to them. They do what the can to scramble prices, and their bots have made it easier for them. It's the retail traders that they almost always scalp. Those who buy and hold high potential stocks for the long run avoid the traps set by the pros.

 

[eepic]

New Elon interview is up, with a headline of him saying with AI we are "summoning the demon". Haven't had a chance to watch it but there could be some hints/gems about Tesla.

Elon Musk: - The Washington Post

Ironically, the trailer for Avengers: Age of Ultron just came out (entire premise is Tony Stark creates an AI robot that goes out of control) :tongue:

 

[anon]

Haven't had a chance to watch it but there could be some hints/gems about Tesla.

Elon Musk: - The Washington Post

I was there in person; the Gigafactory was mentioned briefly near the end and he briefly mentioned the Japanese suppliers, but I think that was the only mention of Tesla. I'm pretty sure that there was nothing new in that information. There was some interesting information about SpaceX though.

 

[AlMc]

Short interest as of Oct. 15, 2014

22,829,442 days to cover 2.9

 

[Papafox]

Generally we see Up Mondays if the previous Friday is positive but not too high a jump. I'm thinking the Friday afternoon recovery bodes well for TSLA's price on Monday morning, provided the macro picture is healthy. Now, if we can just find out if Causalien is in a good mood or not.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

Now, if we can just find out if Causalien is in a good mood or not.

It's not up to him, it's up to his crystal ball. :biggrin:

 

[uselesslogin]

I guess they are starting to "test the limits of demand."
Significantly Improved Leasing for a Tesla with US Bank | Blog | Tesla Motors

The key demand generator in this deal being a 3-month happiness guarantee. As long as you aren't turning it in for another Tesla you can give the car back within the first 3 months if you aren't completely happy.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Moderator's Note

The discussions about Porsche v Tesla were consolidated into Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

 

[Zaxxon]

That happiness guarantee is neat, but you're still out at least $7k if you turn it in. Not exactly cheap.

 

[callmesam]

That happiness guarantee is neat, but you're still out at least $7k if you turn it in. Not exactly cheap.

When you are buying something with an early adopter's eye, being able to swap cars out within three months is incredibly generous, even at $7,000.

 

[Zaxxon]

I don't disagree. Just clarifying.

 

[callmesam]

I don't disagree. Just clarifying.

Then don't use value words like "cheap" that have no independent meaning in the context. They are relational words that compare two different things.

Examples:

The Tesla Model S is cheaper than a Ferrari F40.

The Tesla Model S is cheaper to operate than a Toyota Prius.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I guess they are starting to "test the limits of demand."
Significantly Improved Leasing for a Tesla with US Bank | Blog | Tesla Motors

The key demand generator in this deal being a 3-month happiness guarantee. As long as you aren't turning it in for another Tesla you can give the car back within the first 3 months if you aren't completely happy.

I am wondering if we'll see market reaction to this on Monday. There are several levels of why this is significant (whether market picks up on this or not is a totally different story...)

1. Demand generation. As was mentioned by uselesslogin the new leasing (and it is "real" leasing by third company with montly payment hundreds of dollars lower than for a 60 month financing) has potential to significantly broaden Model S addressable market.
2. Leasing by a third entity (US Bank) means improvement to the top line, because if car is leased through Tesla the income is deferred. If car is leased through US Bank, the full selling price is realized by Tesla at the moment of sales of the car to US Bank, which in turn owns the car and leases it out to a customer.
3. According to one of the interviews Elon mentioned that the main reason Tesla could not offer true lease is that banks were reluctant to establish residual prices at the end of lease because of lack of history of the secondary market for used Model S cars. The fact that a bank is willing to establish high enough residual value to offer attractive leases, means that Model S is becoming a mainstream luxury car with banks having enough confidence to allow for conventional leasing