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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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I am wondering if we'll see market reaction to this on Monday. There are several levels of why this is significant (whether market picks up on this or not is a totally different story...)

  1. Demand generation. As was mentioned by uselesslogin the new leasing (and it is "real" leasing by third company with montly payment hundreds of dollars lower than for a 60 month financing) has potential to significantly broaden Model S addressable market.
  2. Leasing by a third entity (US Bank) means improvement to the top line, because if car is leased through Tesla the income is deferred. If car is leased through US Bank, the full selling price is realized by Tesla at the moment of sales of the car to US Bank, which in turn owns the car and leases it out to a customer.
  3. According to one of the interviews Elon mentioned that the main reason Tesla could not offer true lease is that banks were reluctant to establish residual prices at the end of lease because of lack of history of the secondary market for used Model S cars. The fact that a bank is willing to establish high enough residual value to offer attractive leases, means that Model S is becoming a mainstream luxury car with banks having enough confidence to allow for conventional leasing

Definitely agree with you that the new and more affordable leasing option is going to grow the addressable market for the Model S and X.
 
Next GF in California ?

Members of the California Congressional delegation wrote a letter to Elon Musk asking him to build the next GF, now in Silicon Valley.:smile:

US Fed News Service, Including US State News
Oct 26, 2014

REP. HONDA, RUIZ AND REP. COSTA LEAD EFFORT URGING TESLA TO
BRING NEXT GIGAFACTORY TO CALIFORNIA

WASHINGTON, Oct. 23 -- Rep. Mike Honda issued the following
press release:
Congressman Mike Honda (D- San Jose), Dr. Raul Ruiz (D-Palm
Desert), and Congressman Jim Costa (D- Fresno), along with
other members of the California Congressional delegation, sent
a letter to Tesla CEO and founder, Elon Musk, encouraging Tesla
Motors to bring the next state-of-the-art Gigafactory to
California.
In the letter, the lawmakers wrote, "While any state would
be thrilled for the opportunity to add thousands of high-tech
manufacturing jobs, California has the supply of qualified
workers to meet Tesla's current needs, and the educational
infrastructure to support further growth. Our delegation is
dedicated to continuing our thriving relationship with Tesla
and supporting its prosperity in every way possible. We look
forward to continued discussions at every level of government
and hope that you will make California the home of your next
Gigafactory."
Congressman Honda said, "As the world capital of
innovation, it makes sense that Tesla's next Gigafactory be in
Silicon Valley. Our highly-educated workforce, abundant
renewable energy resources, and world class research
institutions makes the Bay Area a natural partner to build
Tesla's Gigafactory. I look forward to working with Tesla,
Governor Brown's Administration, and my colleagues in the
California Delegation to bring this game-changing battery
facility to Silicon Valley
."
Members of the California Congressional delegation joining
Rep. Honda, Dr. Ruiz, and Rep. Costa in their letter to Tesla
Motors are: Rep. Gloria Negrete McLeod (CA-35); Rep. Tony
Cardenas (CA-29); Rep. Grace F. Napolitano (CA-32); Rep. Juan
Vargas (CA-51); Rep. Sam Farr (CA-20); Rep. John Garamendi
(CA-3); Rep. Barbara Lee (CA-13); Rep. Mark Takano (CA-41);
Rep. Mike Thompson (CA-5); Rep. Anna Eshoo (CA-18); Rep. Jerry
McNerney (CA-9); Rep. Adam Schiff (CA-28); Rep. Janice Hahn
(CA-44); Rep. Jared Huffman (CA-2); Rep. Judy Chu (CA-27); Rep.
Maxine Waters (CA-43); Rep. Zoe Lofgren (CA-19); Rep. Lucille
Roybal-Allard (CA- 40); Rep. Xavier Becerra (CA-34); Rep. Karen
Bass (CA-37); Rep. Alan Lowenthal (CA-47).

For any query with respect to this article or any other content requirement,
please contact Editor at [email protected]

Copyright © HT Media Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
Provided by ProQuest LLC. All Rights Reserved.


-0- Oct/27/2014 08:27 GMT
 
Members of the California Congressional delegation wrote a letter to Elon Musk asking him to build the next GF, now in Silicon Valley.:smile:
Doubt it. The Nevada site to fully supply Fremont with continued current levels from Panasonic. Next factory, per musk to be in China so it would make more sense for Asian giga factory than California. Opportunities don't always come around again.
 
Doubt it. The Nevada site to fully supply Fremont with continued current levels from Panasonic. Next factory, per musk to be in China so it would make more sense for Asian giga factory than California. Opportunities don't always come around again.
It's kind of pathetic how jilted California acts about the Gigafactory. In actually, the Sparks location is near the California border. Any economic boost to the Truckee-Reno region will be shared between California and Nevada. Moreover, California taxpayers are not on the hook for any of the government incentives needed to bring this economic benefit.

So it would not hurt for California politicians to recognize what a good deal the state has in the Sparks location and express some gratituded and enthusiasm for this. Moreover, they should be angling to land the next auto manufacturing factory. Leveraging the proximity of both Fremont and Sparks could make the Sacramento area very attractive. (I have family in that part of the state, so I am a bit partial to it. My family was so proud to show me the Tesla store in Rocklin just miles from where I grew up.)
 
Short interest as of Oct. 15, 2014

22,829,442 days to cover 2.9

Thanks for this.

An interesting note is that Daimler probably had a synthetic short of some kind given the average realized price of their exit on Oct 17 (quite possibly indirectly through options, in which case some counterparty was short in lieu). Since they exited that position, the short probably expired as well so the next short report may be lesser by 4-5mm shares from that.
 
What is your take on the price action today and moving into ER? I would have thought the new USBank leasing program would have at least keep us market neutral, if not up, today?

It's interesting that neither the @elonmusk nor @TeslaMotors tweets have anything to say about the new US Bank leasing program. While Elon posted a blog Saturday about the leasing on the Tesla Motors website, the only Tesla Motors tweet since then was about Superchargers, while Elon's two tweets were about SpaceX and his visit to a pancake restaurant. Inspection of the Tesla Motors website indicates that there has been no press release about the new leasing program.

Perhaps Elon wants the leasing news to slowly percolate through the media and the cadre of stock analysts. He may now prefer a slowly rising stock rather than one that jumps and then trips. His tease about the D event backfired. A comfortably steady gain in share price would be a better hook for enticing top level professionals into the company, since much of their compensation would be related to shares and options. A measured pace of understated news may be the new normal.
 
11:50 ET: DowJones via WardsAuto.com - Tesla sales off 26% thru sept vs prior year

Seems like this headline is hitting lots of newswires and spinning that Tesla is offering new sales incentives (new US Bank lease) because of this. Still funny how folks don't understand the wholistic picture of being production constrained and delivering to more markets outside of the US.
 
I get the feeling this market has lost the ability to respond to Tesla-specific developments. It seems very disconnected at the moment, and has been since at least the Autopilot/D announcement. If anything, I think shorts should be worried because so many positive developments have not been priced in.
 
11:50 ET: DowJones via WardsAuto.com - Tesla sales off 26% thru sept vs prior year

This doesn't make any sense to hear from Wards. Tesla does not report monthly sales figures, and the Q3 earnings report isn't out until next week.

How did they arrive at 26%? Off 26% in what geographic region? All I'm seeing is a bunch of tweets and re-tweets, with no links to an actual article.

It's amazing that market entities will panic sell on unsubstantiated news. Actually, this doesn't even qualify as news now that I think about it: it's rumor and/or market manipulation.
 
11:50 ET: DowJones via WardsAuto.com - Tesla sales off 26% thru sept vs prior year

more gibberish.

fwiw, re very short-term trading, you may want to bear in mind that Consumer Reports is releasing it's reliability survey results in about a half hour per tweet linked below. While I think it's quite unlikely to have long-term significance, if survey results from public force CR to remove their Model S recommendation, I would expect the FUD machine to run with it.

Consumer Reports (@ConsumerReports) | Twitter
 
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