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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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It looks like the Daimler fiasco ended up having no effect after the traders fully digested it. Like Curt said. the bots probably saw the words sell + 4% shares and acted. Human intervention will probably be needed this morning to keep the bots offline a bit.

That's what my 8 ball said, Otherwise it'd give me a negative number.

I do think we are in the run up to earnings phase. It usually start 3 weeks before the date, we are a bit late for this quarter.
 
Forbes article today suggests that Daimler divestiture may clear the way for tighter BMW collaboration with Tesla. Interesting... And I like author's thinking.

Daimler Tesla Stake Sale Might Clear The Way For BMW - Forbes

sidenote: Significant milestone for me: my one thousandth post to TMC! Yeh for me. :).

carbon fiber. hmm, this could be a game changer in terms of weight reduction, indeed. imagine what advantage it might bring to the overall range. BMW has certain innovation power in the auto industry and therefore I still believe they will cooperate to some extent with TM. Did I mention that I drive a BMW?. I don't have a biased view. :biggrin:
Congrats to your 1'000th post! Guess you owe us a beer at least.:wink:
 
It looks like the Daimler fiasco ended up having no effect after the traders fully digested it. Like Curt said. the bots probably saw the words sell + 4% shares and acted. Human intervention will probably be needed this morning to keep the bots offline a bit.

Deeper thinkers took advantage of short sellers and their bots who automatically jump in at market openings on anything related to Tesla Motors that they somehow see in a negative light.

Daimler is not an investment company. It manufactures automobiles. It made its original investment in Tesla Motors to insure the success of its supplier of electric motors. It is now obvious that Tesla is around to stay and may become a dominant player in its industry. Since Tesla can now survive without financial support from Daimler, Daimler sold its hedged stake to free up the money for its own corporate purposes. Daimler made it clear that the sale should not be construed as a lack of confidence in Tesla Motors.
 
I think that count must include these cancelled trades below:

19:14 $ 227.48 1,500,000
19:14 $ 227.48 1,500,000 - Cancelled Trade
19:14 $ 227.48 1,600,000
19:14 $ 227.48 1,600,000 - Cancelled Trade
19:13 $ 227.48 1,767,929
19:13 $ 227.48 1,767,929 - Cancelled Trade

I don't know what happened there - if it was a mistake or someone doing something on purpose?

I've figured it out Daimler's trade folks.

First, Daimler held exactly 4,867,929 shares as of last filing. Looking back at MikeC's post, someone put up three block trades after hours on Oct. 17 2014 totalling exactly 4,867,929 shares at $227.48, which is the closing price of that day. That means they almost certainly gave the large order to their broker asking for the closing price of that day (more on why below). If you look at the chart that day, there was a very steady decline from noon until the close that did not match the NASDAQ chart.. this was very likely the broker executing the trade for their books, then giving Daimler the entire trade at the closing price. This lines up with the fact that the 10+ million shares traded that day was double the amount the day before and after.

Now why would Daimler want the closing price that day? Oct 17 happens to be the third friday of the month, meaning options expiry. In all likelihood this means Daimler's hedge from last year consisted of a series of options that expired this month. If someone can find information on large options trades/open interest that expired last week I would be curious to know.

In this case the broker probably got a better average price and made a very handsome profit on the stock trade, probably at least $1-2/share. Now before we get up in arms that they ripped someone off the Daimler or manipulated the market, remember that they promised Daimler the closing price on a $1.1B trade. If Elon made some tweet or said something on CNBC that sent the stock up in the last hour of trading, they could have easily lost tens of millions. It would likely had to be one of the really big global brokers with a close relationship with Daimler to take on this trade.

In terms of how this affects the stock going forward, it's mixed. You lose one big long term institutional holder and it goes to much less sticky institutions/individuals who may turn over the stock more. A larger shareholder base means that all else the same you have more herd mentality in volatile conditions, but also more ability to absorb small groups of buyers/sellers to lower volatility. The one upside is you have one less entity that can send a very large impactful sell order like this.

TL;DR - Daimler got a closing price trade for their entire holdings on Oct 17 (last week). This affirms that they are done the trade already, and also indicates that their hedge from last year was likely a set of options that expired Oct 17.

Hope that paints a clearer picture of how this affected TSLA's stock price this last week, I wrote a bit more about why it made business sense for Daimler to exit from their perspective in the other thread if anyone's interested.
 
I've figured it out Daimler's trade folks.

First, Daimler held exactly 4,867,929 shares as of last filing. Looking back at MikeC's post, someone put up three block trades after hours on Oct. 17 2014 totalling exactly 4,867,929 shares at $227.48, which is the closing price of that day. That means they almost certainly gave the large order to their broker asking for the closing price of that day (more on why below). If you look at the chart that day, there was a very steady decline from noon until the close that did not match the NASDAQ chart.. this was very likely the broker executing the trade for their books, then giving Daimler the entire trade at the closing price. This lines up with the fact that the 10+ million shares traded that day was double the amount the day before and after.

Now why would Daimler want the closing price that day? Oct 17 happens to be the third friday of the month, meaning options expiry. In all likelihood this means Daimler's hedge from last year consisted of a series of options that expired this month. If someone can find information on large options trades/open interest that expired last week I would be curious to know.

In this case the broker probably got a better average price and made a very handsome profit on the stock trade, probably at least $1-2/share. Now before we get up in arms that they ripped someone off the Daimler or manipulated the market, remember that they promised Daimler the closing price on a $1.1B trade. If Elon made some tweet or said something on CNBC that sent the stock up in the last hour of trading, they could have easily lost tens of millions. It would likely had to be one of the really big global brokers with a close relationship with Daimler to take on this trade.

In terms of how this affects the stock going forward, it's mixed. You lose one big long term institutional holder and it goes to much less sticky institutions/individuals who may turn over the stock more. A larger shareholder base means that all else the same you have more herd mentality in volatile conditions, but also more ability to absorb small groups of buyers/sellers to lower volatility. The one upside is you have one less entity that can send a very large impactful sell order like this.

TL;DR - Daimler got a closing price trade for their entire holdings on Oct 17 (last week). This affirms that they are done the trade already, and also indicates that their hedge from last year was likely a set of options that expired Oct 17.

Hope that paints a clearer picture of how this affected TSLA's stock price this last week, I wrote a bit more about why it made business sense for Daimler to exit from their perspective in the other thread if anyone's interested.

This makes sense to me - except how could they trade from noon to close at the closing price of the day before the closing price of the day was known?
 
This makes sense to me - except how could they trade from noon to close at the closing price of the day before the closing price of the day was known?
The cited trades were all time-stamped at 19:13 or 19:14; the market closes at 16:00.

- - - Updated - - -

What a horrible way to trade a block this size
As I understand the theory, the broker put these shares (temporarily) into its book, along with the matched hedges. I'm sure those shares have been leaking onto the market one way or the other since then, probably in part through the exchange but likely mostly OTC to institutional buyers.
 
The cited trades were all time-stamped at 19:13 or 19:14; the market closes at 16:00.

I should have highlighted the relevant part of the quote, but my comment was referring to the part of eepic's theory that the trades occurred from noon to close and affected the market hours price action that day, which would have been before the final closing price was known.
 
This makes sense to me - except how could they trade from noon to close at the closing price of the day before the closing price of the day was known?

They aren't. The broker probably agreed to sell through the day and give the closing price trade to Daimler. In other words, the broker will take on the benchmark risk and use their own judgment to manage that risk. They can trade that however they want as they are taking the risk on it.

They could try to trade it all in the last thirty seconds or put it in the market on close and hope the market clears it (see HFT Firm Fined $1 Million for Manipulating Nasdaq - Bloomberg ). In this case, it appears they decided to work a lot of it into the market through the last few hours of the day which may have moved it a few dollars, which isn't necessarily a crazy idea. Taking a step back, the markets are fundamentally determined by supply and demand so you would expect a large seller to have some price impact, particularly if they want to do it on one day.

As a bystander with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, I would characterize the trade as a little heavy-handed but not outrageous.

- - - Updated - - -

The cited trades were all time-stamped at 19:13 or 19:14; the market closes at 16:00.

- - - Updated - - -


As I understand the theory, the broker put these shares (temporarily) into its book, along with the matched hedges. I'm sure those shares have been leaking onto the market one way or the other since then, probably in part through the exchange but likely mostly OTC to institutional buyers.

Actually I'm not sure about the timestamp, I just quoted it from MikeC here, perhaps he could shed some light on that. Pretty sure it's an AH trade either way
 
They aren't. The broker probably agreed to sell through the day and give the closing price trade to Daimler. In other words, the broker will take on the benchmark risk and use their own judgment to manage that risk. They can trade that however they want as they are taking the risk on it.

They could try to trade it all in the last thirty seconds or put it in the market on close and hope the market clears it (see HFT Firm Fined $1 Million for Manipulating Nasdaq - Bloomberg ). In this case, it appears they decided to work a lot of it into the market through the last few hours of the day which may have moved it a few dollars, which isn't necessarily a crazy idea. Taking a step back, the markets are fundamentally determined by supply and demand so you would expect a large seller to have some price impact, particularly if they want to do it on one day.

As a bystander with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, I would characterize the trade as a little heavy-handed but not outrageous.

- - - Updated - - -



Actually I'm not sure about the timestamp, I just quoted it from MikeC here, perhaps he could shed some light on that. Pretty sure it's an AH trade either way

The trades I quoted in my post were actually cancelled, but v12 to 12v had confirmed in the following post that the same number of shares did trade earlier in the after hours session.
 
I believe you (have not read report), but if properly done Daimer would have limited up and down side when they executed collar and would no longer be in position for additional gain or loss. I assume by their $160 price the collar was done some time ago and they used market makers to execute stock transfers as the upside strike options came due instead of paying cash and keeping the underlying. All depends on how they set up.

Here is the report. Just use the search tool for "Tesla". http://www.daimler.com/Projects/c2c/channel/documents/2478081_Daimler_Q2_2014_Interim_Report.pdf
 
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