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Can you input some numbers into a spreadsheet to show how you're making your calculations? I'd like to see what you're thinking and how you're reaching those numbers.
(feel free to download my View attachment Q4-2013.xlsx and input your own numbers)
I often hear traders trying to predict how much a stock will move after an ER based on the options action. So for example, they'll say based on actions around calls and puts at certain strikes they think there will be a +/-10% swing after the announcement. Anyone care to share how this is calculated and if there is a place to find this data? Want to see what that number is for TSLA right now. Thanks.
My estimate is not as detailed as your spreadsheet, but I do have my back of the envelope calculation which captures all big items on non-GAAP basis, without accounting for leasing, kind of big picture view. I'll post my thoughts in Q4 thread (wanted to do it for a while, but never got to it...)
Thanks, I'll look for your post. I tried inputting various aggressive numbers into my spreadsheet and couldn't find a way to come up with $0.50+ eps (non-gaap) without inputting very high ZEV income.
NigelM
Recovering Member
Note: New record. Today was the first time the stock closed above $200. Actually stayed above $200 all day I believe.
Norse
Active Member
The way I recall it described is to look at the option strike closest to the current price at the nearest expiration date. Add the prices for the corresponding Put and Call together, and you'll get an estimate of the maximum price swing that the Market is expecting.
So as of close today, with TSLA at $203.7, the closest strike price is the Feb 22 $202.5 option. The midpoint of the Bid and Ask for that Put & Call is $10.78 and $11.90 respectively. So the Market is estimating a potential swing of (up-to) plus or minus $22.68, or about 11%.
You can also adjust for the difference between the actual stock price and the nearest option price, but this is good for a rough approximation.
Win, lose, or draw today, I want to thank all on TMC who contribute advice/share stories that helps me make (mostly) profitable investment choices and puts me nearer a financially worry free retirement (and pay for the next Tesla in my family).
Dave T: Will happily split the cost with you for Sleepy's plane ticket and meal if we hit $280 by March 31st! Al
I'd like to contribute a little ER thing.
Fascinated by the non-GAAP EPS estimates here in the $0.50 range.
If that is true, we will almost certainly see a GAAP number that is nearly the same. Maybe +$0.25 to +$0.40
This is owing to the heavy predominance of EU deliveries with no deduction for GAAP lease accounting. This will contrast -$0.32 GAAP adjusted for Q3 owing to $89 Million (from memory) deducted on paper for GAAP adjustments.
GAAP EPS going from - $0.32 on Q3 to + $0.25~$0.40 on Q4 will kick so much butt that I think Sleepy's $250 could be delivered rather rapidly.
To this day, the screens, the analysts and the shorts have not figured out that non-cash lease accounting adjustments in GAAP is not real, so while we here may not be that amazed by a strong progression of non-GAAP earnings, the idiotic jump in GAAP from loss to deep into profits I think will throw the markets and the financial media a very sizable curve ball possibly triggering a short-squeeze on steroids considering the huge mass of the free float sold short going in.
There, that is all I have to say about that.
Fascinated by the non-GAAP EPS estimates here in the $0.50 range.
If that is true, we will almost certainly see a GAAP number that is nearly the same. Maybe +$0.25 to +$0.40
This is owing to the heavy predominance of EU deliveries with no deduction for GAAP lease accounting. This will contrast -$0.32 GAAP adjusted for Q3 owing to $89 Million (from memory) deducted on paper for GAAP adjustments.
GAAP EPS going from - $0.32 on Q3 to + $0.25~$0.40 on Q4 will kick so much butt that I think Sleepy's $250 could be delivered rather rapidly.
To this day, the screens, the analysts and the shorts have not figured out that non-cash lease accounting adjustments in GAAP is not real, so while we here may not be that amazed by a strong progression of non-GAAP earnings, the idiotic jump in GAAP from loss to deep into profits I think will throw the markets and the financial media a very sizable curve ball possibly triggering a short-squeeze on steroids considering the huge mass of the free float sold short going in.
There, that is all I have to say about that.
InTheShadows
Active Member
I am really torn, IV crush is going to be big, but I think the price move is going to be big too. I'm planning on liquidating 1/4 of my er play today, just haven't decided which would be the best ones to sell. For near term IV effects are less the deeper you go ITM right? Which would mean I should sell the otm and ATM ones, how ever they have a lower delta and more leverage to take advantage of a big price move, right?
Don't forget your solar system AlMc.
We had quite interesting (for me anyhow) discussion with DaveT on this subject, starting with the following post: Q4 2013 results - data points, projections and expectations - Page 17
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Fibs are the only thing you can use to draw resistance and support lines when a stock is in new price levels that it has never been before. When there are no past peaks and valley's to draw upon. The only one other time I think I used the 423% level is for the VW short squeeze... BTW, we have just just surpassed the VW squeeze. Even though it took a year. So there are those significance.
I would assign this resistance level as a one shot only thing. Unless we linger here for a long time or the earnings bombs and make this line significant, this line will not become a hard resistance or support.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
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