Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[FredTMC]

Elon's interviews on Fox Business News today:

Elon Musk on the next step for SpaceX, Nevada gigafactory | On Air Videos | Fox Business

Elon Musk: Will be able to achieve half a million cars by 2020 | On Air Videos | Fox Business

THANKS!

Elon’s comments about hitting Q3 delivery numbers were “interesting”.

I wish interviewer would’ve asked about hitting Production guidance (in addition to question about ‘deliveres')… oh well.

 

[everman]

Elon's interviews on Fox Business News today:

Elon Musk on the next step for SpaceX, Nevada gigafactory | On Air Videos | Fox Business

Elon Musk: Will be able to achieve half a million cars by 2020 | On Air Videos | Fox Business

"I feel fairly comfortable with where things are headed for this quarter." -Elon Musk @ 2:10 in second link.

He shied away from the "confident" term he likes to use.

 

[chickensevil]

Elon's interviews on Fox Business News today:

Elon Musk on the next step for SpaceX, Nevada gigafactory | On Air Videos | Fox Business

Elon Musk: Will be able to achieve half a million cars by 2020 | On Air Videos | Fox Business

The important question asked in the second video: People are expecting 7800 deliveries by the end of the Quarter, will you beat that number? If nothing logistically bad happens, Yes we should slightly beat that number. (Note: during the question he was kinda back and forth because he didn't want to commit too hard to it, because, well, anything could happen, but it seemed to me that any miss on deliveries would not be because of something bad that happened previously in the factory, which is something I know we all had debated about.)

How many cars can you push off the line with the gigafactory? 500k by 2020. Then she repeated that like she was amazed and he was like "per year, yeah" with a body language like... sure, no big deal... easy!

How many MX will you deliver next year? 15k-ish maybe 20k if things go really well.

We are averaging 1 live supercharger every 20 hours (hot diggity dog!)

 

[maoing]

How many MX will you deliver next year? 15k-ish maybe 20k if things go really well.

I see this implies 65K guidance for 2015, 50K MS + 15K MX at minimum, which is not bad for YoY 85%. The MX production # is not impressive because current pre-order # already exceeds 20K.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Is it possible the convertible notes that have been issued are causing the stock price to remain under a certain price? What is the price where the most dilution occurs?

 

[vgrinshpun]

Elon's interviews on Fox Business News today:

Elon Musk on the next step for SpaceX, Nevada gigafactory | On Air Videos | Fox Business

Elon Musk: Will be able to achieve half a million cars by 2020 | On Air Videos | Fox Business

Fantastic videos, DaveT - thank you!

First video, 5:58 mark: this is a factory which will produce revenue on the order of $5B a year...

I could not believe what I just heard - checked calc couple of times - this means hitting $100 per kWh mark in 2020! This is sequel to Elon saying to gasping analysts during the ER call that he would be disappointed if TM did not hit this mark in ten years.

So here you have it - 6 years! Wow!

 

[uselesslogin]

Fantastic videos, DaveT - thank you!

First video, 5:58 mark: this is a factory which will produce revenue on the order of $5B a year...

I could not believe what I just heard - checked calc couple of times - this means hitting $100 per kWh mark in 2020! This is sequel to Elon saying to gasping analysts during the ER call that he would be disappointed if TM did not hit this mark in ten years.

So here you have it - 6 years! Wow!

I think the numbers are 35gwh of cells and 50gwh of packs. The other 15gwh of cells will come from existing factories. So he isn't saying they will hit it but certainly well under $200/kwh.

 

[jhm]

Fantastic videos, DaveT - thank you!

First video, 5:58 mark: this is a factory which will produce revenue on the order of $5B a year...

I could not believe what I just heard - checked calc couple of times - this means hitting $100 per kWh mark in 2020! This is sequel to Elon saying to gasping analysts during the ER call that he would be disappointed if TM did not hit this mark in ten years.

So here you have it - 6 years! Wow!

I'd like to believe that, but even running the Gigafactory at 2/3 capacity on $150/kWh would be $5B in revenue. So I think this statement leaves plenty of ambiguity.

I'm also a bit confused by Musk's statement that the Gigafactory may employ up 10000 employees. 6500 on 50GWh output is 130 employees per GWh. If 10000 employees means 200 per GWh, this would be very bad. But if the productivity is the same, then we may be looking at 75GWh capacity. That would be super. Unfortunately these statements are all too ambiguous.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I think the numbers are 35gwh of cells and 50gwh of packs. The other 15gwh of cells will come from existing factories. So he isn't saying they will hit it but certainly well under $200/kwh.

Source of cells is immaterial, as he was talking about revenue, i.e. Cost of goods leaving the factory.

- - - Updated - - -

I'd like to believe that, but even running the Gigafactory at 2/3 capacity on $150/kWh would be $5B in revenue. So I think this statement leaves plenty of ambiguity.

I'm also a bit confused by Musk's statement that the Gigafactory may employ up 10000 employees. 6500 on 50GWh output is 130 employees per GWh. If 10000 employees means 200 per GWh, this would be very bad. But if the productivity is the same, then we may be looking at 75GWh capacity. That would be super. Unfortunately these statements are all too ambiguous.

in general, I agree on ambiguity, but using some arbitrary production number in the middle of ramping production up does not make sense. remember, his context was comparing revenues with average yearly tax savings.

 

[MikeC]

Fantastic videos, DaveT - thank you!

First video, 5:58 mark: this is a factory which will produce revenue on the order of $5B a year...

I could not believe what I just heard - checked calc couple of times - this means hitting $100 per kWh mark in 2020! This is sequel to Elon saying to gasping analysts during the ER call that he would be disappointed if TM did not hit this mark in ten years.

So here you have it - 6 years! Wow!

My impression was that the $5B/year was Nevada's return on investment, as the original question was about whether it was a good deal for Nevada to give $1.3B in subsidies. So the $5B may be including all the support services that will be needed for the workers and their families.

 

[chickensevil]

could the 10k employees also be part of the adding more equipment over time (beyond 2020) that was talked about in the NV deal? Maybe they are leaving themselves room to grow in the factory and the total production of 35GW by 2020 doesn't mean that the factory would be production capped? If so then this is also really fantastic news because we would be looking at even better usage of the space.

- - - Updated - - -

My impression was that the $5B/year was Nevada's return on investment, as the original question was about whether it was a good deal for Nevada to give $1.3B in subsidies. So the $5B may be including all the support services that will be needed for the workers and their families.

Keep in mind that when they move something from the factory to any other location it will count as a "sale" even if it is going to Fremont. Because they will have to account for all of this when they eventually have to pay sales tax. So the 5BN in revenue could be the real number of what the factory will be bringing to the state as the COGS/revenue. I mean sure they would "sell" it to Fremont at cost, but they would also potentially be selling the packs to other companies for other uses (other cars and grid storage). Those extras would likely be higher than the breakeven price, but yeah, I think I agree with vgrinshpun on this one. 6 years to 100$/kW would be amazing!

 

[jhm]

could the 10k employees also be part of the adding more equipment over time (beyond 2020) that was talked about in the NV deal? Maybe they are leaving themselves room to grow in the factory and the total production of 35GW by 2020 doesn't mean that the factory would be production capped? If so then this is also really fantastic news because we would be looking at even better usage of the space.

This is an interesting suggestion. I'm not so sure they would have so much surplus space in the planned buildings that they would be able to put 50% more equipment into it. The land, however, may have enough space to build out a second plant, and this may prove to be the thing to do to get the scale right. So I wonder if they may eventually build out a second plant and double the capacity to 100 GWh. At this capacity, productivity goes up from 130 employees to 100 employees per GWh. At 130, we have a fully loaded labor cost of about $10.40 per kWh. At 100, this drops to $8.00. This is exactly the kind of eXperia nce curve gains, Tesla must get if it will reach $100 total per kWh.

So where's the other half of the diamond? What I see in the rendering is just a long rectangle. Could it be Elon sees more than is shown?

 

[evme]

This is an interesting suggestion. I'm not so sure they would have so much surplus space in the planned buildings that they would be able to put 50% more equipment into it. The land, however, may have enough space to build out a second plant, and this may prove to be the thing to do to get the scale right. So I wonder if they may eventually build out a second plant and double the capacity to 100 GWh. At this capacity, productivity goes up from 130 employees to 100 employees per GWh. At 130, we have a fully loaded labor cost of about $10.40 per kWh. At 100, this drops to $8.00. This is exactly the kind of eXperia nce curve gains, Tesla must get if it will reach $100 total per kWh.

So where's the other half of the diamond? What I see in the rendering is just a long rectangle. Could it be Elon sees more than is shown?

While 10,000 workers is not accounted for in the projections. Telsa is going to be spending 500m+ on equipment past 2022. I personally think Tesla will just make the plant more and more automated while keeping the 6500 workers. My guess is that 6500 represents permanent workers but there would be workers setting up equipment, construction and etc.

On top of that the plant will always increase capacity as Tesla does upgrades to the battery chemistry as well. A 20% improvement in energy density would mean 20% increase in capacity.

 

[InTheShadows]

I'd like to believe that, but even running the Gigafactory at 2/3 capacity on $150/kWh would be $5B in revenue. So I think this statement leaves plenty of ambiguity.

I'm also a bit confused by Musk's statement that the Gigafactory may employ up 10000 employees. 6500 on 50GWh output is 130 employees per GWh. If 10000 employees means 200 per GWh, this would be very bad. But if the productivity is the same, then we may be looking at 75GWh capacity. That would be super. Unfortunately these statements are all too ambiguous.

My feeling was that he was implying they would have higher production.

I also am not worried about hitting the delivery numbers for q3 now. His reaction looked to me like he really didn't want to talk about it but that they are on schedule to beat projections. Glad that interview didn't happen two weeks from now.

 

[chickensevil]

While 10,000 workers is not accounted for in the projections. Telsa is going to be spending 500m+ on equipment past 2022. I personally think Tesla will just make the plant more and more automated while keeping the 6500 workers. My guess is that 6500 represents permanent workers but there would be workers setting up equipment, construction and etc.

On top of that the plant will always increase capacity as Tesla does upgrades to the battery chemistry as well. A 20% improvement in energy density would mean 20% increase in capacity.

But that is just not the impression he gave when he said it. It was more like an expansion statement.

 

[Joel]

Elon's interviews on Fox Business News today:

Elon Musk on the next step for SpaceX, Nevada gigafactory | On Air Videos | Fox Business

Elon Musk: Will be able to achieve half a million cars by 2020 | On Air Videos | Fox Business

While it may not constitute "short-term" investing, Elon Musk stated that Model X is sold out for 2015. According to Elon, Tesla plans on selling 15K to 20K Model X next year. When Tesla announces Drive Assist and AWD on S, 2015 Model S production should sell out in short order. The entire 2015 production (both S and X) could be sold out before Summer 2015.

 

[chickensevil]

Glad that interview didn't happen two weeks from now.

Forget that! I want that question asked two weeks from now! Haha! But yeah, hopefully those comments will help move the stock tomorrow. Mostly because I want my calls to pay out, (selfish I know)

 

[vgrinshpun]

I'd like to believe that, but even running the Gigafactory at 2/3 capacity on $150/kWh would be $5B in revenue. So I think this statement leaves plenty of ambiguity.

I'm also a bit confused by Musk's statement that the Gigafactory may employ up 10000 employees. 6500 on 50GWh output is 130 employees per GWh. If 10000 employees means 200 per GWh, this would be very bad. But if the productivity is the same, then we may be looking at 75GWh capacity. That would be super. Unfortunately these statements are all too ambiguous.

I think that additional 3500 employees will be added as factory will start recycling batteries, probably 5 years or so after factory initially put on line.

Remember, that original plan was to produce 50GWh of battery packs, while producing 35GwH of new cells using the raw materials coming into the factory. Initially additional 15GWh of cells were supposed to be brought from the suppliers.

As fleet of batteries will be aging, the factory will produce these 15GWH of cells using recycling of the old batteries that will at some point start streaming into the GF. The labor cost per kWh will not be that bad, because the "base" 6500 workers will be producing 35GWh worth of cells from raw materials that will have additional labor cost for mining "built-in" outside of the factory. The additional 3500 workers will be producing cells from recycled batteries, so they, so to speak, will replace mining workhours by "mining" raw materials from old batteries.

- - - Updated - - -

Transcript of the interview, compliments of streetinsider.com:

SpaceX CEO and Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) CEO Elon Musk spoke with FOX Business Network’s (FBN) Liz Claman about SpaceX's contract with NASA saying, "I think it's a vital next step in SpaceX's progress." When asked about Lockheed Martin and Boeing’s partnership with Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin, Musk said, "If all your competitors are banding together to attack you, that's like a good compliment, I think, a very sincere compliment" and that "domestically we have essentially everyone ganging up against us." Musk also commented on when the first astronaut will be delivered to the International Space Station, saying, "our internal schedule called for late 2016, but the nature of complex projects is they often take longer than expected. So I would imagine mid-2017 is the most likely point." Musk went on to talk about the new Gigafactory in Nevada saying he expects it to create "probably some number well in excess of 6,000" direct jobs, and "could be upwards of 10,000" long-term. As for the Tesla Model X, Musk commented that “We’ve basically sold out next year’s production" which he said is in the 15-20K range.
Excerpts from the interview are below.
On SpaceX’s contract with NASA:
“I think it's a vital next step in SpaceX's progress. It's the - you know, it's about taking astronauts to the space station, eliminating dependency on Russia for transporting U.S. astronauts. But for SpaceX, it's the next step in the technology we're developing and it means we've got a key anchor tenant in NASA for -- as a customer for human transport into orbit.”
On when they expect to deliver the first astronaut to the International Space Station:
“I think no later than 2017… Well, our internal schedule called for late 2016, but the nature of complex projects is they often take longer than expected. So I would imagine mid-2017 is the most likely point.”
On whether he is worried about the competition from Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin banding together with Boeing and Lockheed Martin:
“Well, certainly it's a good compliment. If all your competitors are banding together to attack you, that's like a good compliment, I think, a very sincere compliment. So domestically we have essentially everyone ganging up against us, Boeing, Lockheed and Blue Origin, Jeff Bezos'company. And then on the international front we rattled the Russians and Putin announced several months ago he's going add $30 billion to the Russian space program in part to compete against SpaceX.”
On how many jobs Nevada Gigafactory will create:
“I expect in terms of direct jobs at the Gigafactory, it's probably some number well in excess of 6,000. Long-term, it's probably in terms of direct jobs, I don't know, could be upwards of 10,000. And then there's usually -- there's a multiplier effect, because every job at the factory, then you have teachers, doctors, lawyers, plumbers, electricians… A significant knock-on effect, that's anywhere from three to five times the direct jobs that are created. But one thing I should point out with respect to the Gigafactory that is I think very important is that the tax rates for the Gigafactory over 20 years, so it's like basically $50 million a year on average for 20 years. This is a factory that will generate revenue on order of $5 billion a year. So we're talking about like 1 percent. It's really tiny.”
On SpaceX's Dragon Version 2 spaceship:
“It's a significant upgrade in technology in particular and I think an upgrade overall in spaceship technology, because the Dragon 2 will be capable of precise propulsive landing. So it will be able to land anywhere in the world on its thrusters with the accuracy of a helicopter. And so if you think of maybe the earliest generation of technology being parachutes to a water landing, that was sort of Apollo then the second generation being a winged vehicle, then the third generation, which is what we're doing with Dragon 2 is landing on thrusters with legs, you know, in a precise location. Like if you imagine an alien spaceship landing, that's how it would land.”
On whether Tesla will be hit the 7,800 number this quarter:
“I think we will see what the final days of the quarter are looking like. I think we are sort of on track to beat something like that…it really depends, if nothing goes wrong. We might be slightly higher, but there are always these logistical issues that you encounter because we are shipping cars all over the world, so we encounter a customs issue in Europe or China or something like that or a train that is carrying our cars breaks down. It’s difficult to account for those extenuating circumstances.”
On what we can expect with the Gigafactory and the number of Tesla’s that he will push off the assembly line:
“Well I feel comfortable that we will be able to achieve at least half a million cars a year in 2020 and maybe we can do a bit sooner than that but that’s what I feel comfortable predicting.”
On the model X preorders:
“We’ve basically sold out next year’s production…It’s somewhere in the, I don’t know, 15,000ish range maybe 20,000ish. It’s difficult to say exactly when.”
.

 

[AudubonB]

So where's the other half of the diamond? What I see in the rendering is just a long rectangle. Could it be Elon sees more than is shown?

One man's diamond is another man's emerald.

More or less.

The cartoon's factory representation can be a fine example (a trifle large, I suppose!) of what is called an emerald-cut diamond. Here are some pix for you:
Diamond shapes in diagram drawings

Hope that helps:smile:

 

[chickensevil]

One man's diamond is another man's emerald.

More or less.

The cartoon's factory representation can be a fine example (a trifle large, I suppose!) of what is called an emerald-cut diamond. Here are some pix for you:
Diamond shapes in diagram drawings

Hope that helps:smile:

And with thosensolar panels on top it will reflect the light and shine like a diamond!!!


OK, reflection would actually be bad... It was just a joke! Man, tough crowd...