Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Krugerrand]

Must - Not - Reveal - . . .

I accept that after you tell me, you will have to kill me. :wink:

 

[jhm]

Here's something I don't get about the dawn of driverless cars being an apocalyptic event for either conventional cars or EVs. How is this supposed to reduce the number of new cars sold every year. Soppose everyone gives up having personal vehicles. They just order up a driveless cab for every trip. Now ther is one car per adult instead of one car per adult. Cars now put on 60k miles per year instead of 15k. Cars get replaced in about 3 to 4 years instead of 12 to 16 years. Net result auto fleet is 1/4 the size, but just as many cars are replaced each year. So just as many new cars are sold each year, but they cost a little more for the autopilot functionality. Exactly how is this is this a problem for Tesla, maker of the most completely programmable cars ever that could even recharge themselves? I'd like to see a gasmobile pump its own gas.

 

[Cattledog]

Amazing seeming all these analysts who I would have thought to be the lesser ones all jump to call out the MS note for what it is. I am quite pleased with this.

I know, it's sort of like an analyst wrestlemania, with Adam Jonas now thrown in the center of the ring.

 

[Jack6591]

Wouldn't a Gigafactory Partnership announcement be perfect, right about NOW????

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Adam jonas theories

1 Electric vehicles failing categorically on a global basis
2 Tesla growth limited in China
3 Battery powered cars require a technological breakthrough to become mainstream
4 Dawn of driverless car's threatens Tesla's being

Ben Kallo comments on this on Bloomberg:

"Not a lot of meat in those four statements"

"I think this is a buying opportunity"

Enough said , AJ , has destroyed any credibility he had!

exactly!
Ben Kallo. I like this guy. and when he was asked at the end of the interview, whether he drove a Model S and what is his favorite: "Blue P85+". The BBG reporter repeated it slowly and kind of confused "a blue P eighty-five plus"...probably never heard of but he was obviously impressed! :biggrin:

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Wouldn't a Gigafactory Partnership announcement be perfect, right about NOW????

Jackl, I can deliver only this at the moment.

By Cornelius Rahn
Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Panasonic Corp., the supplier of
lithium-ion cells that plans to help Tesla Motors Inc. build a
battery factory, said cooperation with the U.S. electric-car
maker will probably boost demand from European automakers.
“The development with Tesla is catching a lot of attention
in Europe,” Laurent Abadie, who heads the Japanese
manufacturer’s operations in Europe, said in an interview. “It
could bring some acceleration to this industry. Especially the
German carmakers are trying to catch up.”
As a result, Panasonic will be able to expand its
leadership in car batteries, which it already supplies to
companies including Volkswagen AG, Abadie said. He declined to
provide a specific forecast.
Some of Europe’s automakers are reconsidering battery
options. Daimler AG said in May it’s working on the “future
positioning” of its German Li-Tec battery plant after Manager
Magazin reported it plans to shutter the site and turn to LG
Electronics Inc. to supply calls for an electric version of its
Smart car.
Renault SA and Nissan Motor Co. said they are committed to
their electric vehicle program and denied a report they may cut
battery production and buy cells from LG Chem Ltd.
Tesla, run by Elon Musk and based in Palo Alto, California,
won tax breaks worth as much as $1.3 billion from Nevada in the
final steps to bring the world’s largest lithium-ion factory to
the state. The plant, in which Panasonic is participating, will
be able to supply 500,000 cars.

Optical Lenses

Panasonic is also betting on increasing demand for optical
lenses and sensors that allow cars to react to traffic
situations without driver input. The market for such components
is growing 10-fold every two years, Abadie said.
The technology, adapted from consumer cameras such as
Panasonic’s Lumix series, will probably also find buyers in the
airline industry, the executive said. Panasonic is in talks with
U.S. airlines to supply face-recognition tools that help
carriers identify and serve frequent travelers and other high-
value customers, he said.
Products from those areas are becoming more important for
the Osaka-based company as traditional stalwarts falter.
Panasonic has suspended plasma panel production, trimmed
smartphone and circuit board operations, and sold a stake in
semiconductor factories to focus on faster-growing businesses.
[...]

 

[Johan]

Adam jonas theories

1 Electric vehicles failing categorically on a global basis
2 Tesla growth limited in China
3 Battery powered cars require a technological breakthrough to become mainstream
4 Dawn of driverless car's threatens Tesla's being

Ben Kallo comments on this on Bloomberg:

"Not a lot of meat in those four statements"

"I think this is a buying opportunity"

Enough said , AJ , has destroyed any credibility he had!

Very much agreed - in my book credibilty has severly suffered. Don't forget the last most confounding and silly argument:

5. Internal combustion engines can still evolve exponentially (like microprocessors) with regards to efficiency, price and performance.

Ben Kallo always sounded to me like a very cool guy on the conference calls

Now like I said before I'm really looking forward to the next official statement from Andre James on this and also if she comments on the MS note in an interview or the like...

 

[Derek Vinyard]

we have a new recommendation from Brian Johnson, Barclays.
equalweight, PT $220 !! again

this person remains true to his principles. Namely, he is keeping his "equalweight" and now it comes, and his PT $220 since 02/27 of this year. Have a look.

- - - Updated - - -

compare his PTs w/ the closing prices.

 

[jhm]

Wouldn't a Gigafactory Partnership announcement be perfect, right about NOW????

Actually I would be very disappointed if Tesla needed another major partner beyond Panasonic. Between the two i think they have all the capital and knowhow to get it done. Another major partner could make the control of the JV more difficult. It's hard enough to marry Tesla's hypergrowth with Panasonic's slow and cautious approach. Of course, there is room for some smaller participants that handle things like precursor materials, anodes, separators, etc.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Panasonic, Tesla to reach final agreement this month

news.

Panasonic to Invest Up to 150b Yen in Tesla Gigafactory: Yomiuri
2014-09-17 08:53:29.333 GMT


By Gearoid Reidy
Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Panasonic, Tesla to reach final
agreement this month on investment in battery “gigafactory,”
Yomiuri reports, without citing anyone.
* Panasonic to invest 20b - 30b yen in stages between 2015 and
2020; construction of plant to start by next year
* NOTE: Tesla Chairman Elon Musk said Sept. 8 Panasonic would
cover 30%-40% of the cost: {NSN NBKNRJ6KLVR4 <go>}
* Related story: Panasonic Riding Tesla Wave to Boost Battery
Business in Europe: {NSN NC0WGV6TTDSN <go>}

 

[Cattledog]

news.

150b yen would be just shy of $1.5b at current exchange rates.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

150b yen would be just shy of $1.5b at current exchange rates.

actually, its closer to $1.4bn which is ~30% of $5bn total investment.

 

[pGo]

actually, its closer to $1.4bn which is ~30% of $5bn total investment.

Link?

 

[chickensevil]

150b yen would be just shy of $1.5b at current exchange rates.

Yeah, that 1.5B is exactly 30% of 5BN and 37% if the plant costs 4BN, so there you have it. Panasonic true to their word. Elon called that one back in Q2 ER months ago and it had been getting a ton of flack from all the shorts. So what do they have to say now?

Actually I would be very disappointed if Tesla needed another major partner beyond Panasonic. Between the two i think they have all the capital and knowhow to get it done. Another major partner could make the control of the JV more difficult. It's hard enough to marry Tesla's hypergrowth with Panasonic's slow and cautious approach. Of course, there is room for some smaller participants that handle things like precursor materials, anodes, separators, etc.

They have already said there would be other smaller partners. Elon even hinted at this with more weight during the Japan Delivery Press Conference. He said that Hitachi and SMM (current anode/cathode suppliers for panasonic) would very likely be joining in on the Gigafactory. Nothing has been finalized and they are still in talks. He has also maintained throughout that secondary suppliers would, combined, provide about 10% of the cost of the factory.

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Link?

Google

Just input 150,000,000,000
you will get the output of: 1,398,862,500

The exchange used to be much closer to a 1 to 100 ratio but has increased as of late.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Link?

which link do you mean?
the article comes from BBG after a phone interview w/ Panasonic's spokeswomen Yayoi Watanabe.
The FX rate is simple to get just type in in Google JPY USD.

 

[Cattledog]

actually, its closer to $1.4bn which is ~30% of $5bn total investment.

Right. If you don't have a billion dollars (me) then that $100m is a big gap. When you have billions of dollars (Tesla and Panasonic), $1.4b is just shy of $1.5b. When I'm $100M short on something in the future and I tell my friends I'm just shy, I'll let this forum know!

 

[chickensevil]

1.4 or 1.5... it doesn't really matter because they aren't turning all this cash over to Tesla today anyway... the exchange rate isn't a set value but has been pretty close to 1/100 ratio for the past 2 years. For all we know that ratio falls through the floor and 150Bn Yen becomes 100M$ in 2020... It isn't really something you can predict and therefore it really doesn't matter.

The important thing is that Panasonic has committed today to fund their part of the factory. Whatever that amount becomes by 2020, I am sure they will shift it as needed to cover their fair share. The rest is just arguing semantics.

 

[pGo]

which link do you mean?
the article comes from BBG after a phone interview w/ Panasonic's spokeswomen Yayoi Watanabe.
The FX rate is simple to get just type in in Google JPY USD.

Thanks. I was looking in yahoo finance feed and also googled it but so far haven't found an article confirming Panasonic 150b yen investment. If true, this will bring other partners quickly.

 

[chickensevil]

Thanks. I was looking in yahoo finance feed and also googled it but so far haven't found an article confirming Panasonic 150b yen investment. If true, this will bring other partners quickly.

Yeah, Derek is tapped basically directly into the market through BBG. So he gets some information just a little bit faster than the rest of us lowly peons

 

[pGo]

Yeah, Derek is tapped basically directly into the market through BBG. So he gets some information just a little bit faster than the rest of us lowly peons

Yup. Thanks for the heads up Derek.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Yeah, Derek is tapped basically directly into the market through BBG. So he gets some information just a little bit faster than the rest of us lowly peons

although it's not my personal terminal. Don't want you to think I am spending $2'000/month for this. :biggrin:


and here are some nice numbers I forgot to post here.
published by Bloomberg Intelligence.

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Electric Vehicle Sales Rise on Green Movement, Media Exposure
2014-09-16 23:03:19.316 GMT

BI AUTM GLOB SBKEYS
U.S. electric vehicle sales totaled 6,483 in August, accounting
for 0.3% of all car sales for the month, according to
hybridcars.com. Sales were 31% higher than August 2013, bringing
the 2014 increase to 20% and 37,820 electric vehicle units.
Increasing environmental regulation, media exposure and
government subsidies, both in the U.S. and worldwide, may spur
growth in the segment. Technologies reducing battery and car
prices may also drive gains.

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