Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[eepic]

The oatmeal review seems to be accumulating coverage...

It's up on Business Insider as well. I joked about an oatmeal rally on the social chat thread yesterday... maybe I was right

Jokes aside it is pretty good fanmade viral marketing but it could just as easily be the Deutsche Bank comments this morning.

 

[AlMc]

The oatmeal review seems to be accumulating coverage...

It is amusing to see positive comments and negative comments about TM causes TSLA to move. Even when those ate 'celebrity' or social chatter picked up by the bots and news feeds.

 

[FluxCap]

It's up on Business Insider as well. I joked about an oatmeal rally on the social chat thread yesterday... maybe I was right

Jokes aside it is pretty good fanmade viral marketing but it could just as easily be the Deutsche Bank comments this morning.

DB was already priced in. This bounce coincided perfectly with ValueWalk's picking up the Oatmeal story and pushing it to the top of the Google/Yahoo TSLA news ticker, it appears.

Movement on something as fundamentally trivial as this feels like a strong indicator of oversold territory to me. People are looking for an excuse to buy into the company of the decade, in spite of the crap they have been fed about Tesla being lumped into this "overvalued high-flying internet stocks" meme.

 

[mitch672]

Yeah, probably not the Oatmeal cartoon

There was another presentation to analysts today, I'm betting that has a lot more to do with the recent surge in price than the cartoon

 

[chickensevil]

Well, part of what might make this one get more coverage than normal... in general... is the second part of the review asks Elon to pay 8 million to fund the rest of the Tesla Museum. In which Elon responded:

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Yeah, probably not the Oatmeal cartoon

There was another presentation to analysts today, I'm betting that has a lot more to do with the recent surge in price than the cartoon

Can you expand on this more, I know it was posted earlier, but has anyone gotten the inside scoop on what was discussed/talked about?

 

[mitch672]

Don't know the inside scoop, but I'm guessing the analysts at the "Wedbush Transformational Technologies Management Access Conference" (held yesterday), liked what they heard, and probably placed some buy orders.

Wedbush Hosts Transformational Technologies Conference, Highlights Sector Specific Performance Trends for Investors

 

[FluxCap]

Don't know the inside scoop, but I'm guessing the analysts at the "Wedbush Transformational Technologies Management Access Conference" (held yesterday)' liked what they heard, and probably placed some buy orders.

Wedbush Hosts Transformational Technologies Conference, Highlights Sector Specific Performance Trends for Investors

Hmm, I doubt price action at noon today had much to do with that conference. And as you probably know, Craig Irwin at Wedbush who covers TSLA definitely did not buy TSLA based on his own analysis, because that is against FINRA regulations.

 

[dha]

I really don't understand the tendency on this board to attribute every single price movement to some news event. Stock prices are stochastic. There doesn't have to be an underlying reason every time TSLA moves a few points, especially on low volume.

 

[Cwin]

I really don't understand the tendency on this board to attribute every single price movement to some news event. Stock prices are stochastic. There doesn't have to be an underlying reason every time TSLA moves a few points, especially on low volume.

People have a reason everytime they click they Buy/Sell button. Wether thats "We're going to go up because of the bounce off the 200ma" or "Jennifer Anniston likes Tesla". I think it's important to understand those reasons.

There is a reason we wen't from -1% today to 1.5% atm. Why? Is it something we can rely on tomorrow too? What does it mean? Are all fairly important questions to ask.

 

[c041v]

I really don't understand the tendency on this board to attribute every single price movement to some news event. Stock prices are stochastic. There doesn't have to be an underlying reason every time TSLA moves a few points, especially on low volume.

Perhaps you are right, but this board has historically brought to light certain events before mainstream media has caught on. Whether they are all important is debatable, but I'd rather be over informed than under.

 

[dha]

People have a reason everytime they click they Buy/Sell button. Wether thats "We're going go up because of the bounce off the 200ma" or "Jennifer Anniston likes Tesla". I think it's important to understand those reasons.

There is a reason we wen't from -1% today to 1.5% atm. Why? Is it something we can rely on tomorrow too? What does it mean? Are all fairly important questions to ask.

Yes, there is a reason every time somebody clicks Buy/Sell. But in the absence of major news, those reasons are overwhelmingly internal reasons made by market participants based on positions, price targets, technicals, cost bases, margin positions, rebalancing, etc. etc. Nobody is adjusting a significant TSLA position based on what Jennifer Anniston says.

 

[mitch672]

Hmm, I doubt price action at noon today had much to do with that conference. And as you probably know, Craig Irwin at Wedbush who covers TSLA definitely did not buy TSLA based on his own analysis, because that is against FINRA regulations.

We don't know what the presentation showed, I'm sure it was all about future earnings, and how they are planning to get to 500,000 cars/year. Another seeking mediocrity article was just published, showing $15 EPS in 2019 would justify a $300 stock price, as I seem to remember, at 500K cars per year, they will be at that number (or higher).

 

[Cwin]

Yes, there is a reason every time somebody clicks Buy/Sell. But in the absence of major news, those reasons are overwhelmingly internal reasons made by market participants based on positions, price targets, technicals, cost bases, margin positions, rebalancing, etc. etc. Nobody is adjusting a significant TSLA position based on what Jennifer Anniston says.

Still, if people are changing their position in TSLA. Then that means there is a change in their outlook and their reasons for either staying out until now, or staying in until now. If someone knows something we don't then isn't that still something worth at least talking about?

 

[dha]

Still, if people are changing their position in TSLA. Then that means there is a change in their outlook and their reasons for either staying out until now, or staying in until now. If someone knows something we don't then isn't that still something worth at least talking about?

In my opinion, no. On light news, attributing movements to whatever happens to be coming through the Yahoo finance news feed is apt to be a distraction.

 

[Cwin]

In my opinion, no. On light news, attributing movements to whatever happens to be coming through the Yahoo finance news feed is apt to be a distraction.

Meh, if you are interested in TSLA for the long term. You are probably right. Why let the daily news influence your opinion of a company you already know will be going somewhere?

I'm not a long. I'm more interested in the day to day routine. If you find it a distraction, there is always the long term fundamentals thread to complain.

 

[eepic]

People have a reason everytime they click they Buy/Sell button. Wether thats "We're going go up because of the bounce off the 200ma" or "Jennifer Anniston likes Tesla". I think it's important to understand those reasons.

There is a reason we wen't from -1% today to 1.5% atm. Why? Is it something we can rely on tomorrow too? What does it mean? Are all fairly important questions to ask.

True, but the vast majority of humans buying and selling in the markets do not follow up to the minute news like us here at TMC. Mom and pop investors probably made up their mind to buy before the day started. Professionals in finance with sophisticated tools and news feeds probably wouldn't care much for ValuewWalk picking up on a web comic.

As a thought experiment, consider the opposite. Let's say there was absolutely zero news out on a stock one given day yet the stock trades and moves. Sometimes price movements can't be (significantly) attributed to any particular news item that day.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Still, if people are changing their position in TSLA. Then that means there is a change in their outlook and their reasons for either staying out until now, or staying in until now. If someone knows something we don't then isn't that still something worth at least talking about?

This is also how equilibrium looks like. It's never perfect, people (and bots) differ in their evaluations of the stock and in their circumstances. At any given moment, transactions will take place between traders who are pricing the stock closely enough to cross the spread. You can't expect all trading to cease in the absence of new information.

It's just noise, and due to the volatility of Tesla, random fluctuations of +/-3% are not surprising, especially on very low volume.

It is true that the spike at 12:32 looks like it was triggered by something (don't know if it was the Oatmeal hitting the news, it's been all over Twitter since yesterday, but whatever), but it was nothing truly significant. Just a sudden pale of wind stirring the water a bit.

You also have the school-of-fish behaviour, when what starts as a random move by one participant ends up taking the whole herd with it.

Finally, the simple passage of time may lead the traders who are waiting for a reason to buy (for example, because they think it's been oversold after the ER) to return to the market, like the antelopes returning to the water edge once enough time has passed since they last saw a crocodile.

I'll stop with the metaphors now.

 

[Cwin]

As a thought experiment, consider the opposite. Let's say there was absolutely zero news out on a stock one given day yet the stock trades and moves. Sometimes price movements can't be (significantly) attributed to any particular news item that day.

You're right. Had we not had the oatmeal, panasonic, or even the conferences we'd be finishing at a point determined by non-TLSA related event reasons for buying/selling. Such as beliefs in TA, or the market in general, and restructuring portfolios.

But without today's "non" news my calls would've gone down -15% instead of rising another 40% today (atm). Does that mean ignoring outside influence, that TSLA will have a down day tomorrow? Should I sell my calls today and buy again tomorrow?

 

[chickensevil]

In my opinion, no. On light news, attributing movements to whatever happens to be coming through the Yahoo finance news feed is apt to be a distraction.

For the record, I was posting that as a joke since it was the only thing significant I could find and the article was published at the bottom of the previous mid-day dip, and it started steadily climbing from there until it shot up in minutes by about 4$. A 4 point movement on no news is a pretty sharp jump midday. It was also the highest point of volume for the day as well. SOMETHING caused that jump... the question remains, what?

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I am willing to go with... nothing... as the answer. But if it is something, finding out what that something is before everyone else would be a pretty big deal.

 

[eepic]

Elon at the energy conference in Fremont: "Just to supply auto demand you need 200 gigafactories"

http://www.streetinsider.com/Insiders+Blog/Tesla+(TSLA)+CEO+Musk%3A+Many+Gigafactories+Required+to+Meet+Auto+Industry+Needs+(SCTY)/9485003.html

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You're right. Had we not had the oatmeal, panasonic, or even the conferences we'd be finishing at a point determined by non-TLSA related event reasons for buying/selling. Such as beliefs in TA, or the market in general, and restructuring portfolios.

But without today's "non" news my calls would've gone down -15% instead of rising another 40% today (atm). Does that mean ignoring outside influence, that TSLA will have a down day tomorrow? Should I sell my calls today and buy again tomorrow?

I'm not disputing the importance of news and information trickling out about the company but I don't follow your logic, you cannot say for certain that without "news" the price would not have moved the exact same.
News about "a Tesla employee eats a sandwich today" would probably have zero effect on the stock, whereas "Elon announces Model X will be a flying car via falcon wing doors" would have a large impact. Most news falls somewhere in between, and no one has enough information to determine the impact of lesser news items unless you're entering an order large enough to influence the price yourself.