Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[drinkerofkoolaid]

I think today's move might have had something to do with China increasing incentives for EVs. Has there been any new information about if Tesla will qualify for incentives?
China Considers More Electric-Car Incentives: Official - Bloomberg

"China may exempt electric-car buyers from paying purchase taxes"

 

[hershey101]

without really knowing, that's the flavor I got from it too. So good to get some confirmation from a more knowledgeable person hershey. There was definitely some validity to it but for a very narrow set of circumstances that seemed fleeting to me. I thought they were going to draw more sweeping lessons from it and apply them, but they never really did. Was fun to watch as a warm up to the Tesla story though- which was well done I thought

So here is what the other side has to say about it (Full disclosure, I'm a fan of Tower):
9 Gripes From a High-Frequency Trader -- Daily Intelligencer...

Now IMHO, he makes some pretty good points about HFT and has valid critisms of the book, and the general take on the situation. I mean, lets face it, his big headline is "Markets are Rigged" or whatever the 60 minutes segment called it. To be fair, I think Gorton is being a slightly defensive about HFTs as well... Lets face it, everyone in finance is in it to make money. But I think electronic trading as definitely improved the market place, and I view what (HFTs) do as being positive in terms of liquidity provision. Its just that it comes at the costs of big banks and hedge funds.... At the end of the day though they still take a lot of money out of the retail investor's pockets... There is no reason why TDAmeritrade should be charging $8/trade and over $15 for options (I just did some CSIQ trades and was surprised by the costs!) when IB can do the same thing for $3 on a much better execution engine... Obviously, if your an HFT, you probably don't pay more than a few cents on a small trade, but to charge retail investors anything over $5 for any single trade (stock, option, etf, fx, future, forward, spread, whatever), is insanely overpriced (especially since most retailers dont trade in huge quantities).

Do I think HFTs were a net positive when they came out? Yes, they provided liquidity. Today, any new HFTs that come out are probably not going to be doing social good since liquidity is plentiful, but that also means its much harder for them to survive and make money let alone succeed.... Do I think the founders of various HFTs a decade and half ago had social good as a goal? No, most likely not. They wanted to make money, and the social good it did was a nice by-product... That being said, I do believe certain companies/executives have/had done things that are morally questionable, if not illegal. But lets face the facts, thats true of any industry any where in the world. You have your good apples, and your bad. To judge an entire industry from the bad apples is a big mistake and very narrow minded...

Also for those who don't know, here is a excerpt from the book:
Log In - The New York Times

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I made a new thread, so we can move this discussion there

 

[Cosmacelf]

The news about the Norway sales is bubbling up to the mainstream media. They just talked about it on CNBC.

Norway is mind blowing. In the first quarter, Norway was 32% of Tesla's forecast for 1Q sales. In a country of 5M people. In terms of numbers for 1Q, Norway was 2056 delivered, US estimate is around 3800 (insideevs.com). That leaves just 544 deliveries for the rest of Europe and Canada to hit their 6,400 projected booked deliveries for 1Q. Quite achievable, and that US number could be higher as well. The only fly in the ointment for me for 1Q was poor sales in Germany, but with these numbers, it may not matter.

I think the upwards price movements we've been seeing is a combination of China news and good news from 1Q sales. I'm sure that 60 Minutes interview didn't hurt either!

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Hey folks, there is a new thread in this forum about HFT - let's move those discussions there!

 

[AlMc]

Norway is mind blowing. In the first quarter, Norway was 32% of Tesla's forecast for 1Q sales. In a country of 5M people. In terms of numbers for 1Q, Norway was 2056 delivered, US estimate is around 3800 (insideevs.com). That leaves just 544 deliveries for the rest of Europe and Canada to hit their 6,400 projected booked deliveries for 1Q. Quite achievable, and that US number could be higher as well. The only fly in the ointment for me for 1Q was poor sales in Germany, but with these numbers, it may not matter.

I think the upwards price movements we've been seeing is a combination of China news and good news from 1Q sales. I'm sure that 60 Minutes interview didn't hurt either!

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Hey folks, there is a new thread in this forum about HFT - let's move those discussions there!

It has been a good couple days but I admit to being a little nervous. The news media has picked up on the Norway deliveries and I am hoping the expectations of a big beat do not turn into a Q3 2013 ER. My fears would be allayed if TM did what they did at the Detroit Auto Show: Make an announcement before everyone gets whipped up into a frenzy about production/delivery. Give us part of the good Q1 news from TM themselves so we have share appreciation because of real news not speculation.

 

[Monsoon]

It has been a good couple days but I admit to being a little nervous. The news media has picked up on the Norway deliveries and I am hoping the expectations of a big beat do not turn into a Q3 2013 ER. My fears would be allayed if TM did what they did at the Detroit Auto Show: Make an announcement before everyone gets whipped up into a frenzy about production/delivery. Give us part of the good Q1 news from TM themselves so we have share appreciation because of real news not speculation.

I agree. The Q3 2013 ER frump wasn't poor guidance, or poor deliveries, it was the "whisper number" that was poor, and we took the hit for it.

 

[justthateasy]

Here is my chart for TSLA.

I'm very glad to see TSLA finish very strong today. I most certainly wasn't expecting to see it finish just above 230 considering that we finished under 210 just two days ago.

According to chart, TSLA appears to have beaten the downtrend so we'll see if the support at 226 holds up tomorrow.

Lastly, if you look at the candlestick version of the chart, today's price movement represents the 218-230 gap.

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I was just doing a little more analysis based on trends and possible positive catalysts and I'm going to make a very bold prediction. I think we'll see TSLA hit new ATHs (277-290) before the end of April and we'll see 300 in May, assuming we get another stellar Q1 earnings. (Well, Q1 ER it will be stellar to us but I hope the street reacts positively to it.)

One last thing..... It seems that Tesla will be GAAP positive for Q1. If they indeed report a GAAP positive quarter, how much of a positive catalyst will that be for TSLA?

 

[AlMc]

Here is my chart for TSLA.

I'm very glad to see TSLA finish very strong today. I most certainly wasn't expecting to see it finish just above 230 considering that we finished under 210 just two days ago.

According to chart, TSLA appears to have beaten the downtrend so we'll see if the support at 226 holds up tomorrow.

Lastly, if you look at the candlestick version of the chart, today's price movement represents the 218-230 gap.



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I was just doing a little more analysis based on trends and possible positive catalysts and I'm going to make a very bold prediction. I think we'll see TSLA hit new ATHs (277-290) before the end of April and we'll see 300 in May, assuming we get another stellar Q1 earnings. (Well, Q1 ER it will be stellar to us but I hope the street reacts positively to it.)

One last thing..... It seems that Tesla will be GAAP positive for Q1. If they indeed report a GAAP positive quarter, how much of a positive catalyst will that be for TSLA?

Yahoo estimates Q1ER May 5-7th as I recall. That seems a bit early to me based on history, usually is about 6 weeks after end of quarters.

 

[justthateasy]

Yahoo estimates Q1ER May 5-7th as I recall. That seems a bit early to me based on history, usually is about 6 weeks after end of quarters.

Google has it slated for May 5th and Earnings Whispers for May 21st. Yahoo, Google, and EW are all of course estimates at this point and we won't know for sure until Tesla themselves announces a date. I do however, believe they will release mid-late May.

Regardless of when they release earnings in May, I'm more intrigued of a GAAP positive quarter. I think if they were GAAP positive for Q4, I think the ATH would be higher than 265.

 

[hershey101]

Google has it slated for May 5th and Earnings Whispers for May 21st. Yahoo, Google, and EW are all of course estimates at this point and we won't know for sure until Tesla themselves announces a date. I do however, believe they will release mid-late May.

Regardless of when they release earnings in May, I'm more intrigued of a GAAP positive quarter. I think if they were GAAP positive for Q4, I think the ATH would be higher than 265.

Everyone, lets not get ahead of ourselves. Next thing you know, people will be looking for $0.05 GAAP profit, TSLA will come out with -$0.01, and we will be back at $195.
I haven't actually seen any modeling in the Q1 thread that suggests GAAP profit. Can someone actually back up their claims with some modeling, or evidence?

 

[ggr]

Everyone, lets not get ahead of ourselves. Next thing you know, people will be looking for $0.05 GAAP profit, TSLA will come out with -$0.01, and we will be back at $195.
I haven't actually seen any modeling in the Q1 thread that suggests GAAP profit. Can someone actually back up their claims with some modeling, or evidence?

It's neither modeling, nor evidence, but I think that the difference between GAAP and non-GAAP is mostly lease accounting, and with a large number of deliveries to Europe, where I don't think the cars are being leased (at least not yet), it's possible the GAAP will close (pun intended )

 

[Yggdrasill]

There's no leasing in Norway, at least. That means at least 2056 Model S were sold outright.

When is the "lease" revenue converted to profits? At the end of the lease? So we should see GAAP-profits jump substantially in 2016?

 

[Mario Kadastik]

There's no leasing in Norway, at least. That means at least 2056 Model S were sold outright.

When is the "lease" revenue converted to profits? At the end of the lease? So we should see GAAP-profits jump substantially in 2016?

I would assume so. Tesla retains the residual value guarantee as a liability as they may need to buy out the car at the residual value at the end of the 3 year period. So yes, once we get to that moment in time (~spring 2016) the GAAP profits should start to get this nice boon from my understanding. But yes, selling more and more cars in non-lease countries should accelerate the GAAP to turn to profit as well.

 

[Chickenlittle]

I would assume so. Tesla retains the residual value guarantee as a liability as they may need to buy out the car at the residual value at the end of the 3 year period. So yes, once we get to that moment in time (~spring 2016) the GAAP profits should start to get this nice boon from my understanding. But yes, selling more and more cars in non-lease countries should accelerate the GAAP to turn to profit as well.

Does anyone know if the set aside for this changes as more data available? Does the amount decrease as we go out closer if the cars are retaining more value than modeled for?

 

[schonelucht]

Norway is mind blowing. In the first quarter, Norway was 32% of Tesla's forecast for 1Q sales. In a country of 5M people. In terms of numbers for 1Q, Norway was 2056 delivered, US estimate is around 3800 (insideevs.com). That leaves just 544 deliveries for the rest of Europe and Canada to hit their 6,400 projected booked deliveries for 1Q. Quite achievable, and that US number could be higher as well. The only fly in the ointment for me for 1Q was poor sales in Germany, but with these numbers, it may not matter.

the Netherlands took a big chunk out of that 544 as well (207 registrations to be exact) Missing 6400 would a "sky is falling" scenario and exceedingly unlikely at this point. Germany continues to be poor but with Norwegian sales being what they are completely irrelevant.

 

[Cankooo1]

Not quite sure if this is on topic with short-term price movements or but it might be impactful from a stock price perspective over a longer time frame...

Any one want to speculate about why the General Manager of Tesla in China decided to leave? I'll speculate that it might be related to inability of Tesla to be included in the electric vehicle classification in China that would open it up to a number of financial benefits and to the exemption from traffic controls (Some please correct me if I'm wrong that the Model S currently doesn't fall under the right classification in China to get some significant benefits for electric or clean vehicles). If so, then it demonstrates that Elon and the management team are acutely aware of the importance of China and are doing what they need to do so success is achieved in China.

The reasons are not clear but it’s fascinating for me how often initially negative news for Tesla turns to be positive, similar to NJ ban. I think this resignation is similar case. It received a wide media coverage in China but interestingly enough this gives a lot more focus and attention to Miss Wu. She is much more popular person as former Apple executive.
P.S. Sink the boat and the bridge will shine!

 

[hershey101]

I don't understand why GAAP profitability is a big deal in the first place. I see potential downside where people pickup that TMC thinks Tesla is going to be GAAP profitable, they aren't and the stock tanks. On the other hand, the smart money knows not to look at GAAP numbers because of leasing, and so they will only care about the non-GAAP numbers in case we have a beat. So aside from the ability to say "yay we got a GAAP profitable quarter", I don't see any value discussing GAAP numbers. It makes much more sense to spend time estimating non-GAAP numbers..

 

[Cosmacelf]

I don't understand why GAAP profitability is a big deal in the first place. ... I don't see any value discussing GAAP numbers. It makes much more sense to spend time estimating non-GAAP numbers..

I agree if you want to understand how the company is doing. However the market is obviously not that smart. I've seen it with many other companies - it is rather amazing how dumb the market can be on any particular stock. My suspicion is that there are a lot of momentum or day traders in highly liquid stocks like Tesla, and they really, really don't understand company fundamentals. Anyways, for whatever reason, the market does react to GAAP.

 

[FluxCap]

Interesting day. Peaked in the AM and followed the NASDAQ down.

An 8-K was also just released regarding the convertible note exercise by underwriters:
Tesla Motors - Current Report

 

[justdoit]

This drop is just following the markets. I think it'll pick up if not this week then next week. Looking to add some May calls here.

 

[FANGO]

Looks like motley fool posted an article yesterday suggesting that tesla will blow away guidance for this quarter, based on Norway numbers. I think I like the Idea of pre announcing deliveries just after quarter end, since it seems like if that doesn't happen, we're just going to end up getting more articles like this one. And possibly more quarters like q3.