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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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This end of quarter delivery push feels a lot more active than previous quarters. There are many new threads "about to receive" and "just took delivery" plus big numbers coming from EU. I'm feeling pretty good about beating estimates this quarter. Plus the revenue from EV credits in q1 is the highest of the year, it may be another good showing come earnings.
 
This end of quarter delivery push feels a lot more active than previous quarters. There are many new threads "about to receive" and "just took delivery" plus big numbers coming from EU. I'm feeling pretty good about beating estimates this quarter. Plus the revenue from EV credits in q1 is the highest of the year, it may be another good showing come earnings.

shhhh...not too loud.....it will our secret (along with all are other TMC friends):wink:
 
I don't know how many out there are like me. But I plan on buying a Model E that's fully loaded that will probably cost the same as a basic spartan Model S and I plan on camping out the signature sign up page.

The ability to drive anywhere for free or at the cost of electricity is just too awesome. I remember doing cross country drives and it ended up costing the same as flying because of gas. Take that away and driving is now a viable option again.
 
I don't know how many out there are like me. But I plan on buying a Model E that's fully loaded that will probably cost the same as a basic spartan Model S and I plan on camping out the signature sign up page.

The ability to drive anywhere for free or at the cost of electricity is just too awesome. I remember doing cross country drives and it ended up costing the same as flying because of gas. Take that away and driving is now a viable option again.

S and X too big for me. I'll be first in line for the P+ version of the E however
 
It's erroneous reporting, mistaking what Model E is supposed to be for the X

Oh. I hadn't read the article, I posted it as soon as I read the title. I'm reading it now.

However, they do say this:

LATimes said:
The third, lower-priced model could make its official debut at the 2015 North American International Auto Show in Detroit, Tesla confirmed Friday.

Was this the expectation all along?

On edit: after reading the article, it seems that you are correct, they seem to conflate the two. It's also an old article (Dec 2013), so the "Friday" referenced above is in the distant past.
 
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In an interview with the chief designer he let it 'slip' that they should have a concept version in time for the 2015 Detroit Auto Show (Jan 2015). TM quickly said 'no promises' about that timeline but the gauntlet has been thrown down. With the delay in the model X production it may be a finalized version of the X that we see at the show instead of the concept E.
 
I quote the BEAR-on's closing paragraph:

"What happens if the market is only a half or a quarter the size he thinks it is?" says Anderman. "Then he has a big factory running at only half or a quarter utilization, and his costs are not better than they are today."

What happens if the market is double the size he thinks it is??

Actually, let's answer the question: What *does* happen if the market is smaller than Tesla thinks it is?

Well, here's what happens: Tesla sells cells to other manufacturers. It's not like they're only going to be able to go into Tesla's cars, they can sell packs to other manufacturers and make money on that as well. Or they can sell to tech companies who make non-competing devices. If other manufacturers are making cars which people like more than the Model E, then Tesla will just make as many Model Es as they can sell, and sell the other cells to other companies, thus getting money from general adoption of electric cars rather than specific adoption of only Teslas. Now, this might mean less Model Es, and it might mean that Tesla isn't a dominant car brand and doesn't live up to everyone's expectations, but it also means that Tesla will continue to be successful as a provider of something, even if the car business fails. This is diversification and business people usually love that sort of thing.

edit: not to mention, if US EV demand last year, 2013, was ~100k units, and if EV demand is growing much faster than hybrid demand grew when they were introduced, does anyone in their right mind think that worldwide EV demand won't be 500k units in 2020? That would take very slow growth to achieve that. And heck, even if it doesn't work out, Tesla could still sell batteries to hybrid cars, etc
 
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Actually, let's answer the question: What *does* happen if the market is smaller than Tesla thinks it is?

Well, here's what happens: Tesla sells cells to other manufacturers. It's not like they're only going to be able to go into Tesla's cars, they can sell packs to other manufacturers and make money on that as well. Or they can sell to tech companies who make non-competing devices. If other manufacturers are making cars which people like more than the Model E, then Tesla will just make as many Model Es as they can sell, and sell the other cells to other companies, thus getting money from general adoption of electric cars rather than specific adoption of only Teslas. Now, this might mean less Model Es, and it might mean that Tesla isn't a dominant car brand and doesn't live up to everyone's expectations, but it also means that Tesla will continue to be successful as a provider of something, even if the car business fails. This is diversification and business people usually love that sort of thing.

edit: not to mention, if US EV demand last year, 2013, was ~100k units, and if EV demand is growing much faster than hybrid demand grew when they were introduced, does anyone in their right mind think that worldwide EV demand won't be 500k units in 2020? That would take very slow growth to achieve that. And heck, even if it doesn't work out, Tesla could still sell batteries to hybrid cars, etc

There is a HUGE need for battery storage in the solar industry and if Tesla can make these batteries at $100/kWh then they will not be able to make enough just to satisfy solar industry demand. I will gladly pay $200/kWh for battery storage. I will pay $20k for a 100kWh battery in my garage if I had that option if it would allow me to live off of the grid. If not then I will gladly buy a 20kWh battery for $5k to not have to worry about net metering.
 
This drop did not track the NASDAQ. It was also high volume. If the market reacted to the China exec departure, I think it was an overreaction. I can't think of anything else to explain it.

On edit: it's Janet Yellen again. She's saying the economy and job market are not back to health yet. But I still don't get why TSLA dropped but the NASDAQ didn't.
 
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