Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[fjm9898]

Looking at the damage it doenst look like it. all the structure in the front is fine. If we are lucky its like the first one here in Kent where maybe the battery was punched and and caught the frunk on fire.

All i know is i have a market order for the opening tomorrow for some Puts.

Nothing ont he news feed for TSLA yet, we will see if it they catch on to it before the market has a chance to open, i hope not....

 

[aznt1217]

It's there on stocktwitss. Long term tesla is fine but right now bears have full control. The shorts are back and are feasting. Capitalize on it. Protect your profits and accumulate more shares and we'll take them out.

 

[fjm9898]

Damnit. premarket is probably going to take most of the down side before i can get some Puts in. crappy...

 

[antochat]

This is common knowledge. I would be quite disappointed if Elon didn't know this.

All this stuff about Panasonic dropping the ball seems silly to me. Signing a new agreement to increase supply of batteries before the old one runs out is a sign of CONFIDENCE in the supplier, not the other way around. If they didn't have confidence, they would go to another supplier.

The comments about building a new battery factory with a partner (hmm, I wonder if they have a partner for cells they've been using reliably for years? Oh wait, they do), for Gen 3 production because they will then hit the total worldwide supply of batteries themselves are simply recognitions of reality, not some slight against Panasonic.

Everyone here is looking too deep for a reason because they just lost a lot of money and they want someone to blame. The reason is because the robots scanned the first line of the report, saw that deliveries only beat guidance by 10% instead of 40% like their crazy programmers heard somewhere on the internet, and then the robots sold and everyone else followed suit because the robots started it. No reason to think it won't recover once people realize the story is even better than it was yesterday, and that everything mentioned in the report was a beat. I mean, read articles about it and analyst comments. Nobody is lowering their price targets (except Wedbush...to 205), everyone is raising them. Even the people who don't get it are raising their price targets! All the lowball analysts have raised theirs today by a few dollars.

That goes for everyone saying it's Panasonic's "fault," everyone saying Elon wasn't lively enough during the presentation, etc. etc. Your reactions are all colored by the pit in your stomach from having lost so much money. Relax, have faith, and buy on the dips.

And yes, I'm saying this having "lost" approximately ~$80k today. Leaving me only ~300-400% up on the year. Boo hoo. I'll go take a drive in my awesome electric sportscar which I never ever thought I would actually have a chance to own, which beats the snot out of everything else on the road and everyone who rides in it is blown away by how incredible it is, which was paid for by profits in Tesla, to console me. You do the same, and come back tomorrow with cash and we'll get this party started again.

Amen!

 

[justthateasy]

I'm just getting back home and reading news of this fire. As much as I believe in Tesla and continue to hold a positive outlook with the company, it's looking like I might be completely liquidating tomorrow to protect profits made this year and hope to get back in at a much better price, perhaps the 120s the way things are going?

 

[DaveT]

This was posted in Ugh. Another Model S fire - 2013-11-06

Nov 11, 2013 7:45pm PST - Official statement from Tesla:We have been in contact with the driver, who was not injured and believes the car saved his life. Our team is on its way to Tennessee to learn more about what happened. We will provide more information when we’re able to do so.

I'm glad Tesla issued this statement tonight.

 

[kenliles]

Amen!

Amen, Amen;
nicely said Fango; i'm in LEAPS for this very reason and see the vision of locking in battery production as a total win if they pull it off. The IF is creating new long-add opportunities

 

[Convert2013]

I'm just getting back home and reading news of this fire. As much as I believe in Tesla and continue to hold a positive outlook with the company, it's looking like I might be completely liquidating tomorrow to protect profits made this year and hope to get back in at a much better price, perhaps the 120s the way things are going?

Guys- Don't panic. I am sure if there were a real set of problems with the cars Tesla would have been already quietly working on changes/ recalls. This could be anything. What is curious is all 3 fires happened over the last month. I wonder how many miles the three cars had on their odo and if there has been cooling system issues as part of warranty repairs. We cannot discount malicious acts either at this point of time...

What's interesting is that none of the 3 fires happened in California, the largest concentration of Model S.. hmmmmmmm

 

[aznt1217]

I'm just getting back home and reading news of this fire. As much as I believe in Tesla and continue to hold a positive outlook with the company, it's looking like I might be completely liquidating tomorrow to protect profits made this year and hope to get back in at a much better price, perhaps the 120s the way things are going?

Depending on how the news tracks tomorrow. I may be doing the same. Only difference between you and I... at the $130 mark I'm doubling down + margin. Right now the news is going to trend negative and it will affect the stock price. This just means more upside for us who really know what's going on.

I was speaking to some class mates about my recent debacle in options. He laughed and gave me a look of shame when I told him it was Tesla. He cited everything I expected (NY Times, missing estimates, not making enough money, demand constraints). He's a pretty smart guy too. But then again... the people at Lehman who laughed me out of the room when I was long Google and Apple were "smart" too. I'm going to let it run it's course for a little bit and get back in. The recent moves have made my tax strategy work in my favor as well.

 

[ZenMan]

Guys- Don't panic. I am sure if there were a real set of problems with the cars Tesla would have been already quietly working on changes/ recalls. This could be anything. What is curious is all 3 fires happened over the last month. I wonder how many miles the three cars had on their odo and if there has been cooling system issues as part of warranty repairs.

Count me in as panicked.

1. I have hit road debris in an ICE car. It put a hole in my oil pan but that was the extent of the damage. The oil pan repair was a relatively modest cost. If I hit road debris in my MS that damages the battery I don't think we are talking modest sums. How much is the battery pack to replace? $30k?

2. My Model S is fairly reasonable to insure. But what happens if insurance companies have to start covering $30k battery packs? If a fire starts and moves to the frunk area what is that? A total loss?

3. No matter the reason for the fires the current narrative is that Teslas can burn. This narrative can eclipse the NHTSA crash test rating and cause real damage to the Tesla brand.

Maybe it is the safest car in the world for the occupants, but there is a significant investment in the car itself and you'd hope a piece of trash on the road wouldn't total that investment....

 

[kenliles]

I'll take the opportunity here in the above last few posts to point out an advantage in LEAPS. Of course you still lose money on paper as the price comes down, but an often overlooked advantage is that the Delta tracking also goes down and so your $ exposure to further losses also goes down. If you really are a long term believer, this not only creates some buffer, but opens up opportunities to avg down without losing so much sleep. I use this method to effectively sock away earnings from the year, still be long but at an investment level that can never spoil the earnings. ... just saying'

- - - Updated - - -

Count me in as panicked.

2. My Model S is fairly reasonable to insure. But what happens if insurance companies have to start covering $30k battery packs? If a fire starts and moves to the frunk area what is that? A total loss?

the same thing as when they have to total a mercedes when that road kill punctures the gas tank- except in that case, they also have to cover your hospital bills (if you're lucky)

 

[justthateasy]

Guys- Don't panic. I am sure if there were a real set of problems with the cars Tesla would have been already quietly working on changes/ recalls. This could be anything. What is curious is all 3 fires happened over the last month. I wonder how many miles the three cars had on their odo and if there has been cooling system issues as part of warranty repairs. We cannot discount malicious acts either at this point of time...

I don't consider protecting profits as panicking. Keep in mind that I'm one puny investor against an entire market. Taking into account how bad we've been burned (no pun intended) from the earnings report and conference call and the last month overall, I realize that I might be over reacting and if the market were open now, I would probably execute my exit strategy. I suppose I'm lucky that I still have time to calm down a bit and really reconsider what I'm planning to do. Regardless, it might be best to make these defensive moves sooner than later.

Depending on how the news tracks tomorrow. I may be doing the same. Only difference between you and I... at the $130 mark I'm doubling down + margin. Right now the news is going to trend negative and it will affect the stock price. This just means more upside for us who really know what's going on.

I was speaking to some class mates about my recent debacle in options. He laughed and gave me a look of shame when I told him it was Tesla. He cited everything I expected (NY Times, missing estimates, not making enough money, demand constraints). He's a pretty smart guy too. But then again... the people at Lehman who laughed me out of the room when I was long Google and Apple were "smart" too. I'm going to let it run it's course for a little bit and get back in. The recent moves have made my tax strategy work in my favor as well.

After getting some sleep tonight, I may consider tracking the news as well before I'm absolutely sure I'm ready to act. The 120s-130s is what I'm looking at. I'm also taking a close look at the 110s just in case. I suppose the only good thing tomorrow is new short positions are suspended until the market closes so there's a possibility we'll see some buying somewhere. I'm guessing we'll see another selloff friday.

 

[Joel]

This is common knowledge. I would be quite disappointed if Elon didn't know this.

All this stuff about Panasonic dropping the ball seems silly to me. Signing a new agreement to increase supply of batteries before the old one runs out is a sign of CONFIDENCE in the supplier, not the other way around. If they didn't have confidence, they would go to another supplier.

The comments about building a new battery factory with a partner (hmm, I wonder if they have a partner for cells they've been using reliably for years? Oh wait, they do), for Gen 3 production because they will then hit the total worldwide supply of batteries themselves are simply recognitions of reality, not some slight against Panasonic.

Everyone here is looking too deep for a reason because they just lost a lot of money and they want someone to blame. The reason is because the robots scanned the first line of the report, saw that deliveries only beat guidance by 10% instead of 40% like their crazy programmers heard somewhere on the internet, and then the robots sold and everyone else followed suit because the robots started it. No reason to think it won't recover once people realize the story is even better than it was yesterday, and that everything mentioned in the report was a beat. I mean, read articles about it and analyst comments. Nobody is lowering their price targets (except Wedbush...to 205), everyone is raising them. Even the people who don't get it are raising their price targets! All the lowball analysts have raised theirs today by a few dollars.

That goes for everyone saying it's Panasonic's "fault," everyone saying Elon wasn't lively enough during the presentation, etc. etc. Your reactions are all colored by the pit in your stomach from having lost so much money. Relax, have faith, and buy on the dips.

And yes, I'm saying this having "lost" approximately ~$80k today. Leaving me only ~300-400% up on the year. Boo hoo. I'll go take a drive in my awesome electric sportscar which I never ever thought I would actually have a chance to own, which beats the snot out of everything else on the road and everyone who rides in it is blown away by how incredible it is, which was paid for by profits in Tesla, to console me. You do the same, and come back tomorrow with cash and we'll get this party started again.

Let me rephrase. I am neither upset that the stock price dropped nor looking to place blame anywhere. When I stated that Panasonic dropped the ball that is true. But, it is not bad. It is the nature of the industry. I believe (as Elon Musk stated last month) Tesla looked for additional suppliers because their partner could not deliver cells fast enough to keep up with current demand (demand that was outlined in their 2011 agreement). If LG or Samsung could have stepped in and supplied cells, that would have happened in the short run. And the October 30th agreement may or may not have happened. Clearly panasonic is no slouch, but even "the world's largest battery maker" could not fulfill that first agreement, which looks as if (80,000 units) was to satisfy 2012-2013 (Model S) and 2014-2015 (Model S and Model X) production. Tesla manufacturing it's own cells (or in partnership with Panasonic) may have been part of Tesla's longer term business model, but this manufacturing facility is now in the works because the current process is causing delays in Model S and Model X production and there is no short term solution. Unlike Apple acquiring chip makers for their mobile devices, Tesla is operating in a nascent industry (automotive grade battery cell production). So, yes, Panasonic dropped the ball, which accelerated Tesla into even more vertical integration. For me, this is the best news to come out of Tesla since last October when my DS arrived with my Model S.

Clearly Panasonic is a great partner to have. But think about this: in a few years Tesla will be cornering the market in raw materials and production for automotive-grade battery cells. If GM or Nissan or anyone else plans on developing their own cells, who is going to manufacture them? Tesla is currently planning multi billion cell (i.e., giga) production facilities (plural, not just one). And clearly Panasonic, LG, and Samsung do not have the capabilities to manufacture this type of volume. So, in 5 to 10 years, the options for automotive manufacturers will be to manufacture an ICE car and be at the mercy of petroleum prices (i.e., status quo). Or produce an EV at lower volumes than Tesla (I'm assuming LG, Samsung or the other automotive manufacturers do not follow or compete with Tesla's decision to invest in cell production - which is a safe assumption). Or manufacturers can produce an EV on a Tesla power train. Manufacturing the cells should also drive the cost of the battery pack down at a faster rate because they will be manufacturing costs closer to Panasonic's production cost than what Tesla is currently purchasing Panasonic cells. Tesla will be able to purchase raw materials at lower, more competitive prices, which will make Tesla a higher priority for raw material suppliers, which makes it more difficult for competitors to manufacture automotive grade cells. This is nothing new. This is how most large technology manufacturers operate (Apple, Panasonic, etc.).

Since everyone loves speculation, my forecast is next year there will be a very significant announcement in which Panasonic invests a significant financial stake in Tesla to finance this giga factory.

 

[bonnie]

Since everyone loves speculation, my forecast is next year there will be a very significant announcement in which Panasonic invests a significant financial stake in Tesla to finance this giga factory.

My forecast is they wanted to have the announcement ready for the Q3 earnings call, didn't quite pull it off, and will make the announcement in Q4.

 

[Joel]

My forecast is they wanted to have the announcement ready for the Q3 earnings call, didn't quite pull it off, and will make the announcement in Q4.

Great minds think alike (especially when Elon Musk has information for a later date and an audience in front of him today). :smile:

 

[kenliles]

My forecast is they wanted to have the announcement ready for the Q3 earnings call, didn't quite pull it off, and will make the announcement in Q4.

damn... shhhhhushhh

I disagree with all above "no time to panic" comments
- this is the perfect time to panic- you should all sell everything you have immediately;
I've been waiting a long time for this opportunity-loss and none of you are going to spoil it... Tesla is doomed - sell now...
to me

 

[DaveT]

Since everyone loves speculation, my forecast is next year there will be a very significant announcement in which Panasonic invests a significant financial stake in Tesla to finance this giga factory.

My forecast is they wanted to have the announcement ready for the Q3 earnings call, didn't quite pull it off, and will make the announcement in Q4.

I wonder why Tesla would want to announce a giga factory so early (ie., Q4 ER)? I would imagine they wouldn't need it up and running until late 2016 for GenIII. In that case, I figure they could buy some land right now but they wouldn't need to start building the factory probably until 2015. Am I missing something?

 

[kenliles]

I wonder why Tesla would want to announce a giga factory so early (ie., Q4 ER)? I would imagine they wouldn't need it up and running until late 2016 for GenIII. In that case, I figure they could buy some land right now but they wouldn't need to start building the factory probably until 2015. Am I missing something?

No, I agree. I would think an announcement commiserate with completion of Gen III design would be more appropriate end of next year or early 15 when they have a lot of the details worked out for it- what a coup that would be. At this point it only creates a worry about whether they can do it. Gen III will not now survive in the investments minds without a lock-in on the mega factory so Gen III forward stock movement is locked-out. then again, Maybe that's what he had in mind - he's been pretty clear that the stock price has gotten ahead of itself

 

[bonnie]

I wonder why Tesla would want to announce a giga factory so early (ie., Q4 ER)? I would imagine they wouldn't need it up and running until late 2016 for GenIII. In that case, I figure they could buy some land right now but they wouldn't need to start building the factory probably until 2015. Am I missing something?

I'd expect the factory would need to be built in 2014, validated, and start with smaller runs to support current vehicles. I'd also expect a new factory to be built for Gen3 nearby. Takes time to get all the pieces in place, automation validated, raw material suppliers locked in, permits, waste water treatment, etc. I'd want more than a year for something of this magnitude.

 

[Convert2013]

I wonder why Tesla would want to announce a giga factory so early (ie., Q4 ER)? I would imagine they wouldn't need it up and running until late 2016 for GenIII. In that case, I figure they could buy some land right now but they wouldn't need to start building the factory probably until 2015. Am I missing something?

It should not take more than some 6 to 9 months to build the factory, but the detail planning and design also will take time for such a large factory.