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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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Word on Twitter is that Merc is going to use Tesla drive-train for B-class. Did we know this already?

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Closed out my puts until I figure out what is going on 25% gain.

Knew or knew ... I certainly felt pretty convinced when I saw this at the end of May:
thestreet-dot-com the-tesla-based-mercede-as-seen-through-google-glass

Sorry I'm not allowed html. Fill in blanks yourselves :) Its a 10 second video of some guy in a silent Mercedes B-class ripping out of a coffee shop / Chinese take-out's parking in Los Altos, Si Valley at El Camino Real and S San Antonio Rd.

"Notice the silence. There is no gasoline or diesel engine in this Mercedes. It's an electric motor fed by a battery fitted into the floor pan mostly under the rear seat. Much of these new components were developed together with Tesla."

(Edited for can't spel coffee;)
 
Price around 159.80 stock slightly trending up..... I buy back the calls I sold for some good profit. 1 second later the stock starts trending down.... I open my mouth to start complaining. Stock jumps up like crazy. I closed my mouth and decided to just shut up.
 
Actually if one looks at it with 15 min bars, one sees a volume of almost 2 million shares within 15 minutes. That's more than $300 million. Perhaps what we see today is more a change of ownership.

If one look at the one minute chart.

One can see that this is a classic day trader's test pattern. Probably done with the help of a computer algorithm to execute this fast. A test is a buy at market and subsequent equal sell at market of the same amount of shares that's larger than what the market can handle in order to see if the support/resistance will fall through. The trader pays a little premium to find out the resilience of the current trend.

Why is this obvious? Use a low pass filter on the stock volume and substract the high frequency with the coefficient of the low pass filter and you will see that the 1st minute buy is approximately equal to the extra volume of the next 4 minutes.
 
Actually if one looks at it with 15 min bars, one sees a volume of almost 2 million shares within 15 minutes. That's more than $300 million. Perhaps what we see today is more a change of ownership.
Precisely. I think it is a very good sign. Remember that there was extremely high buying pressure at day's open - 1+ mm shares in the first nine or so minutes - suggesting that some fairly large entity - or even a whale - is creating a position. He/she/it was waiting for a weak day to execute, and today fit the bill.

So while no one truly loves a down day, those of us looking to increase positions - or, of course, to establish them - do like it. Thanks, again!
 
If one look at the one minute chart.

One can see that this is a classic day trader's test pattern. Probably done with the help of a computer algorithm to execute this fast. A test is a buy at market and subsequent equal sell at market of the same amount of shares that's larger than what the market can handle in order to see if the support/resistance will fall through. The trader pays a little premium to find out the resilience of the current trend.

Why is this obvious? Use a low pass filter on the stock volume and substract the high frequency with the coefficient of the low pass filter and you will see that the 1st minute buy is approximately equal to the extra volume of the next 4 minutes.

Erm, I even looked at 30s chart and the volume of the spike up was 355k shares and the consecutive spike down was 233k shares. That's a diff on 122k shares, the next spike up was around 120k shares etc... Looking at 15s chart I see 3 consecutive up volume followed by 2 down (far smaller volume) followed by 2 up (higher) and 3 down (smaller). Overall this was net positive up by at least a few hundred k shares. So if someone did a test, then they lost not a small premium, but quite a large one :)
 
Yea unlikely to be a test, if you combine all the trades, its clearly a net buy (more/larger market buy orders, triggering through limit sell orders, as opposed to more market sell orders triggering downwards through limit buy orders...)

And the amount isn't minuscule either :eek: regardless of 1min, 30 sec, 15 sec, whatever, we're still talking about MILLIONS of dollars placed to BUY the HUNDREDS of thousands of TSLA stock in an extremely short amount of time, at more or less "the same time" (relatively speaking) at market prices! (which is how the stock price can jump up.. strictly limit orders will result in a stalemate and no movement)

So, it's still somebody with loads of money, buying loads of shares, in a HUGE market buy order regardless of which way you look at it.
 
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