Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[Cameron]

I'm thinking people were getting worried about the whole convertible bond conspiracy and started getting out early? I hope we close below 161.88 to dismiss the idea completely, and get a nice rebound tomorrow :smile:

 

[kevin99]

Step 1: Buy puts
Step 2: Publish valuation that brings virtually nothing new to the table
Step 3: Watch stock market go crazy
Step 4: Profit?

Seriously, this can't be because one professor thinks that by standard valuation TSLA is too high, can it?

I would not worry about that. It is a collective force. The professor may contribute a bit, but not the determining factor. What TSLA has done so far is already nothing short of miracle. I don't think is realistic to hope for it go for new high every week.

 

[hoang51]

Thought a dip wouldn't happen just yet but it did. Looks like its not staying below $160... Going back up into $161. Sigh. Usually miss my dip buys.

 

[kevin99]

If TSLA continue the re-bounce back to $164, I should be in green!

 

[Citizen-T]

@Citizen-T
I'm unclear why your image has the black lines where they are. I would drop their slope another 2 degrees or so to (a) match the incoming blue trend and (b) better incorporate the May data.

Yeah this is just a quick hand drawn thing. Personally I use charting software to don't his kind of stuff, but I know that most people here do not and I wanted to show something that was accessible to everyone. I would not try to use these lines to catch the bottom. The point is just to show that we are in the range of typical ups and downs for this stock.

If you want to trade on this kind of info then get a better chart.

 

[brianman]

Yeah this is just a quick hand drawn thing. Personally I use charting software to don't his kind of stuff, but I know that most people here do not and I wanted to show something that was accessible to everyone. I would not try to use these lines to catch the bottom. The point is just to show that we are in the range of typical ups and downs for this stock.

If you want to trade on this kind of info then get a better chart.

Understood and agreed. Thanks.

 

[Citizen-T]

These trend lines always puzzle me as tools. They're true until they aren't, but you never know when that point is going to be. It's a nice trend line, but if it continued for another 4 months or the stock would be $250. As Elon himself noted, the market is already generously crediting TSLA for future execution. Seems very dangerous to extrapolate that trend line much.

Yes. For me it is a game of probabilities. When we were trading at $173 I was selling covered calls and buying puts because the probability that we were going to reverse was greater than the probability that we were going to break out above this channel. Now that we are approaching the bottom of the channel, I see the probability that the bleeding stops soon is higher than the probability that we fall through the bottom. As such I'm going to sell my puts soon (bought back my covered calls already, oops).

Eventually, the trend is going to break one way or another. If that were to happen I'd expect a big move in the direction it broke. If we fall through the floor, then I'd probably buy those puts I just sold right back. If we break out above the top, I'd sell the puts that I had been accumulating and maybe even buy some calls.

It won't work forever, but it has worked incredibly well the past few months and has made me quite a lot of money. Even if you aren't going to trade on it (and I'm not saying you should) I think it provides much needed perspective on a day when TSLA falls 5%. Again, my very non-technical chart was really meant for that, just to provide perspective.

 

[kevin99]

The story of the day, KNDI! Finally benefited from TSLA's exposure in China?

 

[Norse]

The story of the day, KNDI! Finally benefited from TSLA's exposure in China?

Didnt they do that when they climbed from 4 to 8 some months ago? Just to fall right back.

 

[Causalien]

Thanks! Just what we needed

My drawings concur with Citizen-T. This was drawn several months ago.

 

[Krugerrand]

That's pretty, Causalien. I saw something very similar to it at an art gallery last week. When you die, it might be worth quite a lot framed and hung on someone's wall. (I'm still convinced I see a unicorn in there.) :smile:

 

[NigelM]

Mod Note: discussion on Elon's Road Trip went here - Elon-driving-cross-country

 

[Causalien]

Nah, they are Narwhals, not unicorn. I go with the picasso style.

 

[FredTMC]

What's the verdict on closing above $161.88 today? My assumption is that it will to preserve the 20 consecutive days needed

 

[kevin99]

Didnt they do that when they climbed from 4 to 8 some months ago? Just to fall right back.

No I think the run-up to $8 months ago was their press release gimmick. I know KNDI is nowhere near as solid as TSLA, however TSLA is a tsunami and bounds to carry some smaller players along with it.

 

[uselesslogin]

What's the verdict on closing above $161.88 today? My assumption is that it will to preserve the 20 consecutive days needed

I read it as 20 days out of 30 consecutive days. In other words the days that count are the 30 consecutive trading days leading up to the end of the quarter, but it only has to be above $161.88 for any 20 of those days. So we could spend some time below $161.88 and there will still be enough time to make it up.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Isn't it 20/30 days

 

[fastcars]

this pattern is pretty similar... next day rebound same %

 

[Causalien]

I just want to see a hammer today. Pattern confirmation + FA + TA level = straddle.

 

[Cameron]

What's the verdict on closing above $161.88 today? My assumption is that it will to preserve the 20 consecutive days needed

I keep thinking we will see a turn around now, but just the opposite seems to be happening..
I'm still confused why we are down nearly 5% today on no news?