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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
I've been buying June 2026 300 strike calls. I think the 250s are another good choice. Since I want these resolved before they reach 12 months to expiration, going ITM isn't a big deal to me. I just need the value of the calls to increase, and then close them out at something I feel is in the vicinity of a local high.
My underlying mindset is an income mindset - I'm not looking for these to go up 10x. I did a recent trade likes these, buying those 300c for $31 about a month ago, and then closing them last week for $36. I wish the rest of my year was going as well as that trade! Still worth about 1 quarter of living expenses for me.
But these calls I'm buying (though not the puts I just bought) are also about increasing my exposure to the upside when I think the share price is particularly low. I consider $190 to be particularly low over the longer haul (though not 2024), so buying calls with a 27 month window looks like a solid risk/reward to me. Especially if I can avoid marrying the calls until death (or expiration) do us part.
Should the share price continue down then I'll be buying more - probably around 170-175. THen more at 150, 125, 100. If we get another plunge like the last one I'm going to be floating in long dated calls. Which I will also then sell off in chunks on the way back up.
Mostly I stick to the big expirations in order to minimize the bid/ask spread. The big expirations like this one have more liquidity and might have a $1 bid/ask; I see fills pretty quickly when I offer the mid point or maybe a nickel in the mm favor (buy for a nickel over the mid point, sell for a nickel under the mid point). When I trade weeklies I mostly use market orders and don't buy or sell in the 15-30 minutes of open or close, so there is plenty of liquidity. I've found I lose more on open/close using limit orders and chasing pennies (losign dimes and quarters), than I do using a market order.
I like that view and plan to do similar. I have some trapped +C255 9/20/24 and +C150 12/2025 that are under water and will likely cut them at a loss if we’re going down, so I can rebuy similar at each $10 dollars down.
We hope we’ll see $250+ by mid-2025/2026 but who knows if we will? I guess time will tell. Meanwhile I plan to keep busy generating income from weekly scalps of CCs and long calls/puts on micro moves ($10-$20 up or down). Been working out well so far this year.
Comeon adiggs, you know better than this.
This is "be the house" not "be the gambler" forum.......
JK - don't shoot the dog. Sometimes the urge to go long is just too strong
If anybody should know - I should!
One thing that is for certain, ever since I started the thread, is that my own trading pattern and style is constantly evolving. I've tried closer dated calls and puts, and they pretty much all turn out to be gambling and I lose on them.
But when teh share price is particularly low or high - especially when we're so range bound as we are now, then a relatively small long position can augment income generation, or even out earn the income generation by a lot.
The 150 puts I bought for 2 years out - an important part of that decision making is a strong belief that we'll be spending more time under $200 in 2024 than above it. I could be wrong about that of course, but I don't need to be very right for the trade to be very profitable. In at $24 - I might close at $30, and they might be worth $30 if we see a $190 share price. Heck - that could happen tomorrow!
My 'balance' or mid point of about where I think the shares are reasonably valued has moved down around this $200 level. For my own portfolio management that means I aim to be about 1/2 cash and 1/2 shares, with the intent to use as much as 1/2 of each for selling options against. When the share price goes under that balance point, I want to start shifting some of that cash into max dte calls so I can take better advantage when the share price returns. The further away we go, the more imbalanced I want to get.
Same thing above the balance poitn and puts, but with a much smaller commitment. This is the new bit for me and somethign I'm taking for a test drive. The initial position is small, and part of the objective is to see how I am emotionally with having and managing the position. So far its just fine.
Bigger picture I'd like to be earning income levels of money (I don't need to hit a home run to retire a year earlier than I otherwise would - I already got the home run via buying TSLA in 2012).
My experience here is that the really hard part is being will to not buy (or sell), and just sit it out when the trades aren't really there. Given today's macro and this year's guidance from Tesla, if the share price were 270 in a month, then I'd be selling whatever leaps I owned and buying puts. Not because my long term view of the company has altered in the slightest, but because I see the likely direction from 270 to be down in 2024. Not up.
I've been telling people for years that for me, Tesla is a 10x from here by 2030. That hasn't changed. I just also think that the reality for 2024 is we won't see much or any of that run
.The closest to advice I would give somebody - if you were buying TSLA today and looking for it to be an important part of your retirement portfolio in 2030, then I would urge buying shares and forgetting about them. Don't watch the daily share price. The only thing to do is buy more periodically when you have more money saved up.
It doesn't need to be TSLA - its just that Tesla was my 3rd stock pick / conviction in my life. Whatever that conviction is, most people most of the time, are better off buying the market, an index, the shares of a company they believe highly in, and focusing their effort on being better in their job / business / profession.
Thankfully Tesla was my 3rd conviction and not the 2nd. The 2nd one - I learned that when I see something so clearly and decide to invest, then don't dabble. Back in '09 or so when the whole market was on sale, I found a dividend paying company that cost $40/share and should have been $80/share. At $40/share it was a 10.8% dividend, with a history of increasing the dividend every QUARTER for years. Took me 2 weeks of looking at it from every angle I could and deciding to buy in.
And then I dabbled - bought $5k worth when I had the means and should have bought $50k. Probably the best $45k I've ever not spent in my life because I learned a valuable lesson
. For years after I even knew it and told people about it - the only mistake was goign $5k instead of $50k. Dividend kept growing every quarter for many years after - might still be growing for all I know. Share price doubled as well. And I made bank - best % gain on an investment ever, on a trivial amount of money.Then I had my 3rd conviction when Tesla came along. We took out a max sized position for us in our initial purchase - 700 shares for $27 each. That was 2 splits back, and was my first AND second 10 bagger. The initial TSLA position size was a direct reflection of the previous experience.
ChiefRollo
Member
Thank you for sharing your approach and experience!
ChiefRollo
Member
I see no logical reason for a crash and as you all well know don't strongly subscribe to TA, trading almost totally on gut feeling, which has served me well for years
I'm assuming 190 - 210 for the foreseeable until otherwise, although TSLA has the habit to go on face-rippers for no reason, then gradually fades back to where it was, or slightly below
My strategy remains the same, to sell weeklies. I have some ITM calls to deal with for which I'm being aggressive with a handful of -ATM straddles to take good Theta without too much exposure, using those to buy back the ITM's, for the rest I'm writing a 50x calls for around $2 per week, currently c210 feels about right
I'm hoping we get a pop up at some point as I would like to offload a pile of LEAPS, but in the meantime I'll just keep scraping premium off them
I have NVDA and SMCI plays too, with is simply purchasing LEAP monthly/LEAP puts, then selling safe short puts against them until expiry, this potentially doubles my TSLA weekly income and takes pressure off making too aggressive trades (diagonal calendar bear put spreads I think you would call these)
My general experience is placing a big trade on conviction of a market move is when I lose a lot of money, and takes months of fiddling about to recover, so I'm trying to avoid that at all costs
Pre-market OT: TickrMeter sent a -50% offer to early-adopters yesterday, so I bought 2x more for half price - assume you got the same email @Jim Holder ?
What kind of target returns and time frames are you looking for with the LEAPs given the likelihood (?) of SP meandering $250-$300 in 2024? I closed all 2025 LEAPs out in late December fortunately, and values have gone down significantly since then, and one tranche barely outgained shares for the time period. [I see you’ve probably answered this in subsequent posts, unless there might be something to add.]I am increasingly positioned for a move down. I'd like to see 170 but I'll be taking winners and buying leaps as early as 180 or 190 (I won't wait for 170 on the winners). I've been taking some losses on puts and put spreads that have shrunk to be manageably small, so they are out of the way if I'm right about down. And the losses had gotten small enough that trying to hold out for just another little bit is how I usually get good positions turned into bad ones.
I feel like the current share price is close enough to a local top that I've acquired a few Jun '26 +p150s. They will probably be profitable enough at 190 to close - looking for more like 180. If I wake up tomorrow to a higher share price then I'm probably adding a few more.
The Jun '26 +300c that I had a month ago were closed recently - looking to re-enter. Probably start buying max dte calls around 190. I'd like to have a lot of these and will ladder in as the share price goes down (if it does).
General observation - both of these positions are the purchase of options rather than sale, and when I hear the siren call of closer expirations, I remind myself that I lose badly buying options with closer expirations and stop myself
I've got cc's at 200, 210 for this week, and 220 for next week. This is the primary side that I am currently able to sell, as my other resources are tied up backing positions that need more time to win (been rolled, are ITM
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I was in the "first 15000" to order, so maybe you got yours after me...?
Regarding TA, seems WeBull does some on the daily chart for you, which I've never seen before, sure I think it's all voodoo, but still interesting:
Interesting. I was also from the original contributors on Indigogo for the launch. Oh well, it’s fine. I have enough tickets anyway ;- )
Difficult to say what's good or bad these days concerning economic indicators, but markets seem to be reacting reasonably favourably to today's numbers:
Some dealer selling if market moves toward $202.50, then dealers join buying from $205 and up with little resistance above. If market sells down dealers will join selling until $195, where they'll start buying some (smaller green bar).
Note: This plot may change after open. Also this is not predictive of stock price, only of dealer positioning and probability of moves in directions.
Note: This plot may change after open. Also this is not predictive of stock price, only of dealer positioning and probability of moves in directions.
@Yoona Can this data be useful to you/us? They say it means where the bars are lowest means the price is supported by dealers the most there. So in the case $200-$203 range.
I found this:
Q: The lowest point 138.9 is above current price, will it become a resistance or just support when passing through?
A: Depends on market sentiment at that time. If weak, push away; If strong, break above.
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Q: How would you read this GEX & VEX profile , this is SPY next week expiration and what are those vertical dotted lines saying?
A: Price supported most (dealers are buyers) at 437 and least (dealers are sellers) at 465 on total gex
Applying this to ours: Implies price supported most (dealers are buyers) at $202 area, and least (dealers are sellers) at $204 and $199 on total GEX.
Seems somewhat similar to Spot GEX.
dc_h
Active Member
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