I'm sitting on 2x SMCI -p800's (against 2x Jan 2026 +p800) for this week. Max Pain is 820 with a reasonable p800 wall... indeed MP is around 800 for the next few weeks, surprisingly stable... I almost rolled them today for +$27, Bur decided to wait for the extrinsic to wash out a bit more
On the "Primary Analysis" picture, and realize that I'm still learning and studying EWT, one of the "rules" of an impulsive wave is that wave 2 and 4 can not overlap. These are the 2 corrective waves within the larger 5 wave impulsive structure. These are labeled as (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v) rather than 1/2/3/4/5 in that picture, the difference having to do with the grain or level of detail in the data. There is no difference in the rules for impulsive waves at different levels of detail.
In this picture they are showing wave 4 reaching 185, while wave 2 bottoms at 180 (overlapping). I realize that with a lot more practice and study that like most rules, this is one that I might have incomplete information and maybe this construct does arrive in impulsive waves. However of all of the rules (and there aren't a lot), this might be the strongest one of them all. As I understand it if Wave 4 -does- reach up to overlap wave 2, then that is an indicator that you're not in an impulsive wave, but rather that what you've got labeled or projecting as wave 4, is really wave A in a zig-zag (the start of a 3-3-3 or one of the other zig zag (not really going anywhere) patterns).
I don't know what to make of this or how to interpret it, so be sure and chew that chunk of salt thoroughly.
(EDIT to add: Anybody reading differently or additional info, I'm a sponge)
), debating selling them at next shot at $203-$205 if we get one, or a break of $196. It’s by far my weakest point in pulling the trigger. A $20 SP drop would yield a $120k win if done right, but, but…
There 1 wildcard that can help us pump beyond 210 IMO.
After Friday, I certainly didn’t predict Monday and Tuesday, and I have a bad history with long calls and LEAPs, so I’m reluctant to swing trade my supposed HODL long shares. For the next few days, closely monitoring 1Mar$205 and $215 cc hoping for expiration. If they clear without needing to roll, might consider doing a small share sale for the swing trade that dl003 logic and 1Q prospects argue for. Otoh, allowing them to assign would be similar.Cary: “Unless we close the week above $207.83 by 1% (~$209.90) TSLA is likely headed to channel bottom by end of March (low $170’s). On the way down $196.77 and $191.06 can offer some support and rotate back to try $207 again. Keep an eye on them. A fully confirmed sell signal will come with a break below $181.49.”
Well, we know there’s a slim chance of TSLA closing over $207, let alone $209, by or on Friday, so wise to consider @dl003’s tip from earlier today to set up for bearish rotation from here. NFA.
If y’all can share your gameplan so we can learn from each other, that’d be super!
As for me, I STO a handful of -C220 3/15 @3.35, -C210 3/28 @6.30, as well as BTO +P195 3/15 @3.60 and +P180 5/17 @8.40.
I also have assorted short calls between April-August $230-$260 that I’m just going to sit on and either close at new lows or run them out.
As for my longs, debating selling them at next shot at $203-$205 if we get one, or a break of $196. It’s by far my weakest point in pulling the trigger. A $20 SP drop would yield a $120k win if done right, but, but…
And of course, have an escape plan. TSLA can do that to us.
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I am increasingly positioned for a move down. I'd like to see 170 but I'll be taking winners and buying leaps as early as 180 or 190 (I won't wait for 170 on the winners). I've been taking some losses on puts and put spreads that have shrunk to be manageably small, so they are out of the way if I'm right about down. And the losses had gotten small enough that trying to hold out for just another little bit is how I usually get good positions turned into bad ones.
. For these I'm looking for $10+ swings in the share price, buying at what I believe to be a relative low/high point, and selling at relative high/low points. I guess I like swing trading max dte options more than shares - I think that a move below $180 this year is inevitable, and those puts should be nicely profitable if/when that happens.).
Comeon adiggs, you know better than this.I am increasingly positioned for a move down. I'd like to see 170 but I'll be taking winners and buying leaps as early as 180 or 190 (I won't wait for 170 on the winners). I've been taking some losses on puts and put spreads that have shrunk to be manageably small, so they are out of the way if I'm right about down. And the losses had gotten small enough that trying to hold out for just another little bit is how I usually get good positions turned into bad ones.
I feel like the current share price is close enough to a local top that I've acquired a few Jun '26 +p150s. They will probably be profitable enough at 190 to close - looking for more like 180. If I wake up tomorrow to a higher share price then I'm probably adding a few more.
The Jun '26 +300c that I had a month ago were closed recently - looking to re-enter. Probably start buying max dte calls around 190. I'd like to have a lot of these and will ladder in as the share price goes down (if it does).
General observation - both of these positions are the purchase of options rather than sale, and when I hear the siren call of closer expirations, I remind myself that I lose badly buying options with closer expirations and stop myself
I've got cc's at 200, 210 for this week, and 220 for next week. This is the primary side that I am currently able to sell, as my other resources are tied up backing positions that need more time to win (been rolled, are ITM
They have a LOT of NVDA chips, and a lot orders from NVDA in their pipeline.. they are probably one of the OLDEST partners of NVDA going back ~ 20 years.. so while they as a major provider of compute and LLM and possibly inference capability, they will most likely be a pure play in the hyperscaler realm for AI demands for some time. It’s not an absolute of course, and I think it’s overpriced here now RSI WAY elevated, but IMO it’s about their very long direct relationship with their SV partner NVDA, partnership and that they are squarely in the “picks and shovels” space at THIS MOMENT more than almost anyone else. NFA
If Tesla were a private company, do we think Elon and leadership would prioritize EPS-driven metrics such as high price/margin and limited investment for the future? If we think they would go hard after that which is most strategically sound and gives them the highest leverage to dominate long-term as current opportunity affords them, then EPS would be secondary. Even though TSLA is a publicly traded company, Elon won’t let the golden opportunity slip by…simply to please the short-term oriented narrative makers; in fact he views them as tools of incumbent players who know they’re in trouble.
electrek.co
What deal?
BYD has their own in-house city-streets ADAS system rolling out next month-
BYD is launching newly developed smart driving ADAS tech next month
Chinese EV leader BYD is launching its new in-house smart driving tech next month. According to local reports, the advanced...
They even stole the name NOA.
