SpeedyEddy
Active Member
That was a quick $28.95 a piece! on the sell (sold@ $125) YEAH.
Countered that already : BTO SMCI Friday C760 @ $80
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
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Countered that already : BTO SMCI Friday C760 @ $80
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
No, you are not correct on profitability. DITM has almost no Theta in it, 1 dollar down causes my put to rise a dollar. So it is a synthetic short 1:1.
Last week I did the same with DITM calls. 1 dollar share-move is 1 dollar Call-move (roughly. Try that with OTM)
I am chasing delta only with these, because I presume to know where the stock is going. So it is not a premium scalping set-up.
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SpeedyEddy
Active Member
switched over from that SMCI to NVDA C710 (SMCI possibly going south more than NVDA, which will crawl up more IMHO)
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Yeah right, that happened on Friday (solved with OTM -C)
But yesterday I bought puts and today made 29 a piece, because it did what I think it would do. That's why I always say: don't copy me because I sometimes am ridiculous & act dangerously.
But let's see, if the market does what I think it does (daily this week, so why should today be an exception?) I will win again today, like I did yesterday and Tuesday,wednesday and Thursday last week. NOT for the fainthearted!
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Ford has halted production of the Lightning. Rivian is shuttering the factory for upgrades with essentially no planned growth this year. GM is nowhere. VW is trash. Polestar a joke. Apple car is no longer. I know that TSLA EPS is not great right now, but you buy stocks by looking into the future of great companies. How TSLA is not 300 right now is beyond me. Hopefully 175 was the bottom.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
That's only talking about Tesla as a car company. Given the margins these days the stock price is still too high if it's just a car company.
You have to attribute at least SOME value to energy, FSD, robotics, etc to get to the PE we've got today, let alone what it'd be at 300.
The fact vehicle growth will be (relatively) flat this year and much of next is part of why so many in here expect fairly flat trading in that period.... Energy will likely help SOME this year, and perhaps more late next year as a second megapack plant ramps-- Robotics is unlikely to contribute meaningfully at all in that period though... and FSD remains a bit of a wildcard on if it will or not.
If you're talking "Well over a 10 year horizon" then sure... but then you're kinda in the wrong thread for that.
It’s all about controlling/setting the narrative which unfortunately for investors, Tesla sucks at with Wall St.
If Tesla, way back in early 2023 has just come out and said for the next two years, our goal is to maximize production to get as many cars on the road because we’re that confident in the new architecture of FSD (V12) and we plan on showing the data of just how good V12 gets over time
Or if they has said we think now is the time to corner the EV market and we plan to use our superior cost structure and margins to do it, Wall St would possibly be praising Tesla for its plan succeeding. Like you said, a number of bullish news has flown in from Teslas competitors failing and dropping out of the race. But instead, it’s just treated as the overall EV market is souring.
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STO -C210 3/08 @3.20 (3rd roundtrip)
STO -C215 3/08 @2.05
STO -C217.50 3/08 @1.60
STO -C220 3/08 @1.30
Market come and get them
STO -C215 3/08 @2.05
STO -C217.50 3/08 @1.60
STO -C220 3/08 @1.30
Market come and get them
10-20% vehicle growth this year is not flat.
Much of what you say is in the 2-5 year horizon, not 10.
The fact that it is so undervalued right now is relevant to a thread where we sell CCs, because they can get run over in a hurry.
I don't want to derail the thread anymore. I'm just trying to figure out if I should be worried about my March 15 170/195 BPS and July 250CCs....
DITM in the money contract move like stock but profitability is less when looking at it he total cash outlay vs OTM options. @Fact Checking used to have an options guide and IIRC the sweet spot was 10% OTM and he loved 3 months contracts.
OK, so I took a small leap of faith that my 50x -c210's are very, very likely to expire this week and already STO 50x 3/15 -c210 @$5.1
Still holding 20x -200 straddle for this week - hard to see a close much above 200 for the week, but hey, you never know...
Thinking to shift to three weekly cycle and begin to move the strike up, so look to write 50x 3/22 -c215 @$5.1, then use the premiums to close-out the remaining 23x 3/15 -c175's, would be much cleaner going forwards to at least be OTM and roll three weeks up and outfit they go ATM
10x NVDA -p780 still open, will just free-roll down for next week
2x SMCI -p800, also just waiting for the extrinsic to run out on those, planning to be writing the same for next week, so no rush
Still holding 20x -200 straddle for this week - hard to see a close much above 200 for the week, but hey, you never know...
Thinking to shift to three weekly cycle and begin to move the strike up, so look to write 50x 3/22 -c215 @$5.1, then use the premiums to close-out the remaining 23x 3/15 -c175's, would be much cleaner going forwards to at least be OTM and roll three weeks up and outfit they go ATM
10x NVDA -p780 still open, will just free-roll down for next week
2x SMCI -p800, also just waiting for the extrinsic to run out on those, planning to be writing the same for next week, so no rush
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Hence the world "relatively" in the post you quoted.... because it's pretty flat compared to their 50% CAGR over the previous 10 years- especially when it's at much lower margins compared to previous few years too.
Ok, that's still largely outside the purview of this thread though.
I'm not sure they can in the short term, unless you see some major catalyst between now and July 2024 that most folks don't? One that'd not only "run over" a 250CC for July but to such an extent you can't comfortably roll and wait for a pullback?
If you're saying 2-5 years before we see the big growth rather than 10, and I've no argument with that given 2026 should be the ramp on the next-gen platform and a return to hypergrowth, what are your worries about some huge run up or crash in the next few months instead?
I mean Elon is always a factor for a significant dip I guess (selling, doing something related to bird app, etc).... but that's always a wildcard.... in the other direction what do you think would cause a huge run? Nothing I can think of beyond "Hey we solved FSD!" and I've seen nothing to suggest "RT THIS YEAR" is any more likely to be true than that last 6+ years we've heard it.
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