ChiefRollo
Member
I haven’t done spread…yet. It seems the benefit is lower cost (for the purchase of the put) that comes at the expense of the gain…as it erodes (or does not require much) conviction.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
What we're seeing is simply a repeat of the past and will be repeated in the future. Go back to this post. If you study the chart based on what I post, sometimes you're going to arrive at the same conclusion without me providing any update.
So what our intermediate term target is, is one thing. What we do from peak to peak and from trough to trough is a different thing. We can expect a higher high if some conditions are met, but on that day when our prediction comes true but conditions for more upside are not met, we need to change the trajectory.
Here's what the entire process looked like on the chart. This time is going to be no difference. To expect a higher high after the next high, we need to see overbought on the 4h. If there's no such thing on that day, I'd venture to say we'd sell off into the close after making that higher high.
So what our intermediate term target is, is one thing. What we do from peak to peak and from trough to trough is a different thing. We can expect a higher high if some conditions are met, but on that day when our prediction comes true but conditions for more upside are not met, we need to change the trajectory.
Keep in mind that I was blindsided in January and called for the end of the crash prematurely at mid 220s.This round kindly let us know when you turn bearish before dropping off the radar if you find you need to again ;- )
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Weekend reflection. Here's another instance when I jumped the gun. Instead of waiting for the daily RSI to hit 70, I just assumed that it would (eventually) since 63 was held for a bit. No show of strength on the daily while the bearish divergence on the 4h kept getting worse and worse.
Granted, I entered my short at 263 (only anticipating a $20 pullback) and held all to 245. Kept my hedge to 182. Could have done much more. Bearish divergence of this magnitude are deadly.
On the daily
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ChiefRollo
Member
this 2/24/2023 TSLA vanna is eerily similar to next week 2/23
the 175 tallest +vanna is "cancelled out" by the 2 large -vex, which probably means 180 bottom (because the 2 -vex will repel as IV rises when price drops); therefore, the best trade would be:
the week closed at 196.88, near the magnet
if the same is true one year later, then possible 2/23 192-210ish as of now
the 175 tallest +vanna is "cancelled out" by the 2 large -vex, which probably means 180 bottom (because the 2 -vex will repel as IV rises when price drops); therefore, the best trade would be:
the week closed at 196.88, near the magnet
if the same is true one year later, then possible 2/23 192-210ish as of now
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Max-Pain
2/23/24: $192.50
3/01/24: $185
3/08/24: $190
3/15/24: $200
3/22/24: $185
3/28/24: $190
Range bound $180-$200 for the next 5 weeks unless something changes.
2/23/24: $192.50
3/01/24: $185
3/08/24: $190
3/15/24: $200
3/22/24: $185
3/28/24: $190
Range bound $180-$200 for the next 5 weeks unless something changes.
TSLA Seasonality Chart
Percent of time each month closes green
Feb is lowest
Percent of time each month closes green
Feb is lowest
At $199.95 TSLA's P/E Ratio has fallen to 46.4
TSLA' s PE Ratio Range Over the Past 10 Years
TSLA' s PE Ratio Range Over the Past 10 Years
- Min: 31.23
- Med: 126.09
- Max: 1,396.86
- Current: 46.4
Double top detected this past Friday during Pre-Market and Regular Trading:
Friday Pre-Market
Top 1: $205.49
Top 2: $204.55
Target: $189.85
Friday Regular Trading:
Top 1: $203.17
Top 2: $202.94
Target: $191.76
In both cases the neckline appears to be $197.40. From this perspective if TSLA were to trade below $197.40 then the double top may play out.
Obviously if we break the highs it's invalidated.
Friday Pre-Market
Top 1: $205.49
Top 2: $204.55
Target: $189.85
Friday Regular Trading:
Top 1: $203.17
Top 2: $202.94
Target: $191.76
In both cases the neckline appears to be $197.40. From this perspective if TSLA were to trade below $197.40 then the double top may play out.
Obviously if we break the highs it's invalidated.
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dc_h
Active Member
It seems very safe, but that is what I told myself with TSLA when the Hertz story came out and wiped out call spreads and then shortly after the Twitter thing happened and wiped out puts. With straight calls and puts you are just forced to roll, buy or sell. With spreads you are forced to pay the spread. If NVDA took a 30% hit after earnings, it would be a big hit on those spreads. The risk is under 1%, but I would guess would be a painful black swan.
I wonder how often the 6-weeks forward Max-Pain numbers are much different from this?Max-Pain
2/23/24: $192.50
3/01/24: $185
3/08/24: $190
3/15/24: $200
3/22/24: $185
3/28/24: $190
Range bound $180-$200 for the next 5 weeks unless something changes.
Good question. I’ve definitely watched them change week by week, so they are not really very instructive. I use them as one more datapoint along with others to get a picture of where things may be ranging/headed and when I notice a confluence it bolsters the probability.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
@dl003 and @tivoboy - can you please share what you see for NVDA this week based on TA? Not seeking financial advice just want to hear your thought.
I'm guessing (just a guess) that NVDA will either flatline or have a slight pullback after ER based on declining growth % and the last ERs. But Jenson been known to sandbagged earning with underpromising and overdelivering.
What happen to NVDA ER will have some ripples within the MACRO and definitely effect TSLA in some way. Good to hear differing points of view before we goes into this week.
I'm guessing (just a guess) that NVDA will either flatline or have a slight pullback after ER based on declining growth % and the last ERs. But Jenson been known to sandbagged earning with underpromising and overdelivering.
What happen to NVDA ER will have some ripples within the MACRO and definitely effect TSLA in some way. Good to hear differing points of view before we goes into this week.
JimS and I tracked MP on Mondays vs. closing SP on Fridays a week and a half later, and I couldn’t see any pattern (= little or no predictive value). I suppose Wednesday AM MPs are rarely more than +/-$10 from Friday’s close.
JimS’s charts (courtesy of @Papafox) seem to implicate that MP does drive SP (see example below) except on rare outlier weeks driven by other reasons causing the divergence. Or is that showing instead that MP draws up to SP mid-week instead of the other way around?
(Papafox very often jeers how manipulative the pirates are by getting SP to MP, some weeks to the penny.)
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NVDA's forward PE is only 35. I can't imagine a huge drop unless they have a massive miss.
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