Someone with more statistics knowledge than I might find greater correlation than I see. I see options buyers and sellers correcting their exposures based on price shifts (and possibly the reverse causation that Papafox sees), but on the Fridays in this chart: in 2 weeks SP>MP, and in 2 weeks the opposite, all within $10.
ycharts.com
Yes, I meant what E are they coming up with.. for forward price to EARNINGS, many analysts have projected E at ~ 2.50-3$ for the 2024 year… that changes the ratio for sure, if the P is the same. Current Q1 projects are between .55-70 CENTS, granted a low sales quarter, but not necessarily a high COST quarter. Costs will most likely rise throughout the year, mostly from wages my guess. So, if we put conservatively E at $3, we’re still at 70+ P/EI'm guessing the standard definition based on the company's disclosures? Enlighten us if you have another view.
"The Price to Earnings Ratio (PE Ratio) is calculated by taking the stock price/EPS Diluted (TTM). This metric is considered a valuation metric that confirms whether the earnings of a company justifies the stock price. There isn't necesarily an optimum PE ratio, since different industries will have different ranges of PE Ratios. Because of this, PE Ratio is great to evaluate from a relative standpoint with other similar companies.
View attachment 1019907
Tesla PE Ratio Analysis | YCharts
In depth view into Tesla PE Ratio including historical data from 2010, charts and stats.
Yoona started on the research couple weeks back. I recalled she got the raw data for the past 3-4 years on SP vs MP.
Interesting, but weren’t the higher P/E’s over last months (65+) also based on EPS estimates at the time? On that same scale today TSLA’s P/E is lower than it’s been in a long time. Seemingly a better buy.
Well earnings pretty much cratered… coming in in Q4 about half of what had been projected at the beginning of the year 2023. As revenues came in lighter, that put downward pressure on earnings. Early last year 2023, when we were at 108, PE was ~ 25… that was a screaming buy signal among other signals. I’m not saying it should be that low, but getting to truly 35-45 would be another such signal. This stock will move independent of that for sure, MOMO, FOMO don’t care about such things. But some part of the supportive narrative should be reasonable PE. For 2024, growth at least in automotive seems to be FLAT to possibly DOWN. At least revenues, if not overall sales. We’ll see. And I can’t see energy storage making up all that lack of YOY growth.
They are using the wrong E to calculate PE. TSLA got one time tax refund last Q. So GAAP EPS is 2.21. But Non-GAAP is .71. That’s where this 44 PE comes from. It’s a wrong calculation.
i dunno what to do with mp raw data , seems like a hit-miss thing and who is pulling who
I think Tesla in a way set PE ratio aside when it decided to no longer play nice (to invite participants in the collective effort “to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy through electric vehicles”) and began flexing its cost muscle…toward accelerated ICE conversion-share gain. As we know, that focus on “growing while one can” makes sense but ignores public pressure on profit generation. We know many can make EV’s…as there have been over 300 EV makers just in China; very few though will prove to do so sustainably profitably. Legacy players and their mouthpieces have and no doubt will continue their PE narrative…not unlike that once upon a time at AMZN’s expense. AMZN had its unique vision that it worked hard toward…while shutting down the noise; I believe Tesla is trying to do the same.
This is great for TSLA then, maybe it lures in lots of buyers who think it’s on discount
Figure out the statistical tracking percentage between the two, and target tighter IC around it.i dunno what to do with mp raw data , seems like a hit-miss thing and who is pulling who
sry i don't do tight IC, my cheat sheet says 6Δ is good enough (i dare not go 16 unless it’s wed or thur)
