Self-Driving Car: Is it a big deal?

[AnOutsider]

Let's not forget the car might be able to drive far more efficiently than you (with the right sensors) and that would improve range.

 

[HankLloydRight]

It's academic. Here's the future: a beautiful 8-year-old girl with blonde hair and blue eyes is going to be killed by a self-driving car, and it will be the kind of situation that a human could have easily avoided. It will go to trial. On one side, you'll have Google's twenty-something millionaire programmers explaining that, statistically, self-driving cars cause fewer deaths per mile driven. On the other side, you'll have Suzie's coffin and her sobbing working-class parents. Not only will the parents prevail, winning a record-setting 100-billion-dollar judgment, but Congress will pass, and the president will sign, emergency legislation banning self-driving vehicles for all time.

Sorry folks, the Luddites are going to win. If you think the vaccines-cause-autism stuff was bad, just wait until there's a dashcam execution video from a Google car.

I agree with this 100%.

 

[TDR32]

What happens to motorcycles? Do they all need gyroscopes to stand up independently?

I feel the long term benefits of completely autonomous vehicles will be huge but the process getting there will take a long time.

 

[Doug_G]

It's academic. Here's the future: a beautiful 8-year-old girl with blonde hair and blue eyes is going to be killed by a self-driving car, and it will be the kind of situation that a human could have easily avoided. It will go to trial. On one side, you'll have Google's twenty-something millionaire programmers explaining that, statistically, self-driving cars cause fewer deaths per mile driven. On the other side, you'll have Suzie's coffin and her sobbing working-class parents. Not only will the parents prevail, winning a record-setting 100-billion-dollar judgment, but Congress will pass, and the president will sign, emergency legislation banning self-driving vehicles for all time.

Sorry folks, the Luddites are going to win. If you think the vaccines-cause-autism stuff was bad, just wait until there's a dashcam execution video from a Google car.

Disagree. The defence will show pictures of hundreds of 8-year-old blondes killed by human drivers.

It will go the other way. Insurance companies will discover that self-driving cars are orders of magnitude less likely to get into an accident. In no time flat a manually-driven car will be orders of magnitude more expensive to insure. None of us will be allowed to drive our own cars, except at race tracks.

 

[iadbound]

I think we are a long way off from 100% self-driving cars. First, it will take years to make such replacements, and it will still take years before such systems are even widely available. Second, the technology still needs time to mature -- sure there are some Google cars, but a proof of concept is not the equivalent of understanding how a massive fleet of self-driving cars would perform. Third, there are many legal questions that will need to fleshed out before self-driving cars can become the norm.

 

[JohnQ]

Disagree. The defence will show pictures of hundreds of 8-year-old blondes killed by human drivers.

It will go the other way. Insurance companies will discover that self-driving cars are orders of magnitude less likely to get into an accident. In no time flat a manually-driven car will be orders of magnitude more expensive to insure. None of us will be allowed to drive our own cars, except at race tracks.

Honestly, I'll be glad to not be around when this happens on a massive scale. Well, I'll be upset I'm no longer around but happy not to experience it. While I agree that insurance companies will jack up rates, and it will be "irresponsible" to drive anything other than an automated vehicle, juries will continue to award massive settlements when there is a failure.

I find the parallel to automated airliners interesting. Overall the industry is far safer than it was but pilots' airmanship skills have atrophied making routine emergency situations much more challenging. See Air France 447 where a loss of the airspeed indicator perplexed two pilots leading to the deaths of 228 people. I wonder how that will translate to cars or if the skills of the average driver are so low that it will be irrelevant.

 

[apacheguy]

And for the OP, if self-driving cars aren't a big deal, why do people go gaga over ACC? Why do people insist on cruise control? Why do people opt for self-parking systems? Self-drive just extends that to make driving as easy as possible and people will be all over it.

The simple answer is, I don't. I so rarely use cruise control that I can't remember when the last time was. Maybe, just maybe I could find some usefulness in ACC at some point in time, but I wouldn't want anything beyond that.

I think that self driving cars will drastically reduce fatalities and serious injuries, which take quite a serious toll on our population. This will make them impossible to resist even though most of us like to drive. Protecting our loved ones will be a higher priority.

So this begs the question: would anyone buy a Tesla that didn't ship with pedals or a steering wheel column? If the argument is safety and that's the world we are moving towards then perhaps in another 20 years we will all be stripped of our driving privileges.

 

[callmesam]

Elon said Tesla will unveil a car next year capable of autonomous driving 90% of the time. Am I the only one that says, meh?

Don't get me wrong. If I could drive my MS up to a restaurant and say, "Tesla, park yourself" and then walk away, that would be WAY cool! And then I could open the app and tell the car where to meet me as I'm leaving the venue. Kind of like the bimmer that James Bond controls from his phone. But I don't think this is what Elon means when he says 90% of the time.

I kind of like to drive. That's what makes a Tesla so great, right? What gives everyone the "Tesla grin" is being the one in control and being able to put the pedal to the medal. I don't ever want to give that up. Yeah, maybe for really, really long stretches of highway driving it'd be nice to take a break. But that's what driver assist and cruise control is for, right? I don't ever see myself sitting behind the wheel and then setting an autopilot and going to sleep. That just ain't gonna happen.

Am I missing the point of an autonomous car? Does anyone else agree or am I once again a lone wolf?

When you listen to Elon discuss autopilot, you can tell that he feels the same way. There is a pleasure in driving.

However, there is also, often, monotony associated with driving for many people.

Autopilot AND autonomous google-style cars are coming.

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At a minimum, you ought to appreciate it if you were drunk or over tired.

Anyone who has ever just "needed a ride" will appreciate it.

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This is precisely the thing that I'm afraid of. I don't think we should encourage irresponsible behavior such as folks falling asleep behind the wheel or finding themselves in an inebriated state. As TexasEV points out, it would not be reliable 100% either.

We should encourage as many tired and inebriated drivers to STOP DRIVING.

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I would want self driving mostly for longer boring trips. Staying in my lane and at the right speed going through center California on highway 5 seems like a chore I would rather let a computer do. Twisty mountain roads, on the other hand, I want to control myself.

How about an overnight drive. Like a redeye. Leave home late at night, and arrive early morning. Might work instead of flying.

Would also require wireless charging or analogous technology.

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This will be a gold mine for lawyers.

Actually will be hugely costly for trial lawyers. Black boxes in cars and reduced insurance costs will make human driving much more expensive.

Elon has talked about order of magnitude better driving than a human.

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It's academic. Here's the future: a beautiful 8-year-old girl with blonde hair and blue eyes is going to be killed by a self-driving car, and it will be the kind of situation that a human could have easily avoided. It will go to trial. On one side, you'll have Google's twenty-something millionaire programmers explaining that, statistically, self-driving cars cause fewer deaths per mile driven. On the other side, you'll have Suzie's coffin and her sobbing working-class parents. Not only will the parents prevail, winning a record-setting 100-billion-dollar judgment, but Congress will pass, and the president will sign, emergency legislation banning self-driving vehicles for all time.

Sorry folks, the Luddites are going to win. If you think the vaccines-cause-autism stuff was bad, just wait until there's a dashcam execution video from a Google car.

Sorry to disagree. Order of magnitude better. Which means you might have to wait 15 years before we ever see your scenario, if ever.

More likely Google cars have a 100,000 - 0 victory over trial lawyers with black boxes and cameras.

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I think that self driving cars will drastically reduce fatalities and serious injuries, which take quite a serious toll on our population. This will make them impossible to resist even though most of us like to drive. Protecting our loved ones will be a higher priority.

If you don't also think so, just wait and see how it turns out in the next 10-20 years.

GSP

Mandatory rulemaking in California by the end of 2014, so it may be much sooner than most people think.

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What happens to motorcycles? Do they all need gyroscopes to stand up independently?

I feel the long term benefits of completely autonomous vehicles will be huge but the process getting there will take a long time.

C-1 | Lit Motors


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"The highest price we pay for car crashes is in the loss of human lives, however society also bears the brunt of the many costs associated with motor vehicle accidents. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), U.S. motor vehicle crashes in 2010 cost almost $1 trillion in loss of productivity and loss of life."

In 2012 there were 5,419,000 police-reported motor vehicle traffic crashes, 33,561 people died in motor vehicle crashes, up 3.3 percent from 32,479 in 2011. Of total crashes in 2010, 1,542,000 caused injuries and 3,847,000 caused property damage only.

http://www.rmiia.org/auto/traffic_sa...of_crashes.asp

If an automaker can provide a product that rarely wrecks, compared to current accident rates, then that will be a lot of money to split.

"Private insurers pay approximately 50% of all motor vehicle crash costs. Individual crash victims pay about 26%, while third parties such as uninvolved motorists delayed in traffic, charities and health care providers pay about 14%. Federal revenues account for 6%, while state and local municipalities pick up about 3%. Overall, those not directly involved in crashes pay for nearly three-quarters of all crash costs, primarily through insurance premiums, taxes and travel delay." [Emphasis added]

Everyone that is skeptical of autopilot/autonomous driving needs to read Chunka Mui's Forbes series. This is closer to happening than the public realizes.

Fasten Your Seatbelts: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions (Part 1) - Forbes

Even if you disagree with the assessment by Google, Tesla, Forbes, common sense . . .California has mandatory rulemaking for driverless cars on the road due by December 31, 2014.

Automated Driving: Legislative and Regulatory Action - CyberWiki

"As amended, defines "autonomous technology," "autonomous vehicle," and "operator"; finds that the state "presently does not prohibit or specifically regulate the operation of autonomous vehicles"; requires rulemaking before 2015; permits current operation under certain conditions; imposes additional oversight on the operation of vehicles without a human in the driver's seat; and requires that the "manufacturer of the autonomous technology installed on a vehicle shall provide a written disclosure to the purchaser of an autonomous vehicle that describes what information is collected by the autonomous technology equipped on the vehicle." Recent amendment struck previous language stating "the intent of the Legislature that current law governing the conversion of vehicles originally manufactured by a third party shall control issues of liability arising from the operation of the autonomous vehicle if that vehicle was converted by an autonomous technology manufacturer."

 

[djplong]

It's academic. Here's the future: a beautiful 8-year-old girl with blonde hair and blue eyes is going to be killed by a self-driving car, and it will be the kind of situation that a human could have easily avoided. It will go to trial. On one side, you'll have Google's twenty-something millionaire programmers explaining that, statistically, self-driving cars cause fewer deaths per mile driven. On the other side, you'll have Suzie's coffin and her sobbing working-class parents. Not only will the parents prevail, winning a record-setting 100-billion-dollar judgment, but Congress will pass, and the president will sign, emergency legislation banning self-driving vehicles for all time.

Sorry folks, the Luddites are going to win. If you think the vaccines-cause-autism stuff was bad, just wait until there's a dashcam execution video from a Google car.

I disagree. The insurance companies will buy Congress and FORCE us to take autopiloted cars so they can keep our premiums where they are, pay out fewer claims (due to the safety numbers) and rake in ever more profits.

Dead Little Suzie doesn't stand a chance against Rich Corporate Lawyers and Lobbyists.

 

[X-RAY]

The self driving car will be THE major breakthrough of the 21st century. Both in economic and social perspective. I predict when the critical mass is reached it will have as much of an impact on society as we know it, as the world wide web and cell phones did in the last decennium of the 20th century.
Perhaps only to be followed by advanced household robotics.
These two developments will seriously alter the way we live our lives. Whether we like it or not.

 

[donv]

I'm pretty sure we'll hit a tipping point, probably in the next 15-20 years, where there will be some level of mandate for autonomous cars as well. You'll still be able to drive manually on country roads, just as you can still drive your Model T there, but interstate highways and urban city centers? Probably not.

It will start with autonomous-only lanes and grow from there.

I disagree. The insurance companies will buy Congress and FORCE us to take autopiloted cars so they can keep our premiums where they are, pay out fewer claims (due to the safety numbers) and rake in ever more profits.

Dead Little Suzie doesn't stand a chance against Rich Corporate Lawyers and Lobbyists.

 

[TEG]

I'm pretty sure we'll hit a tipping point, probably in the next 15-20 years, where there will be some level of mandate for autonomous cars as well. You'll still be able to drive manually on country roads, just as you can still drive your Model T there, but interstate highways and urban city centers? Probably not.

It will start with autonomous-only lanes and grow from there.

 

[Jaff]

I do not believe we will go from the status quo, to totally autonomous overnight...there will be a long "break in period" whilst testing & rolling out autonomous vehicles...and, this period will be lengthened by each autonomous vehicle system failure (and there will be failures, some catastrophic) that causes an accident...legal challenges from these incidences will happen...man made machines are never 100% infallible, and it would be utopian to believe so...even our Model S's have had issues...

I, for one, do not wish to have "HAL" drive my car off a cliff, cross a lane head-on into a semi, or run over little "Suzy", due to a system error, maintenance malfunction, or bad weather related incident.

 

[Mr X]

Absolutely no interest whatsoever.


The thought of a self driving car sounds terrible for enthusiasts. I want to drive my car, i want to be in control, not have it drive me, especially a frickin tesla, best be sure im driving that dang thing. I enjoy every millisecond of driving.

 

[brianman]

I kind of like to drive. That's what makes a Tesla so great, right? What gives everyone the "Tesla grin" is being the one in control and being able to put the pedal to the medal. I don't ever want to give that up.

Some would say that I'm a spirited driver, when it comes to the Model S. (Some would use other words.) Generally, speaking I completely agree with you. That said...

Traffic moving at <= 5mph is painful. Delegating that task to the pretty sounding lady (GPS) that I muted on day 1 of owning the vehicle would make my life happier.

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It's academic. Here's the future: a beautiful 8-year-old girl with blonde hair and blue eyes is going to be killed by a self-driving car, and it will be the kind of situation that a human could have easily avoided. It will go to trial. On one side, you'll have Google's twenty-something millionaire programmers explaining that, statistically, self-driving cars cause fewer deaths per mile driven. On the other side, you'll have Suzie's coffin and her sobbing working-class parents. Not only will the parents prevail, winning a record-setting 100-billion-dollar judgment, but Congress will pass, and the president will sign, emergency legislation banning self-driving vehicles for all time.

Sorry folks, the Luddites are going to win. If you think the vaccines-cause-autism stuff was bad, just wait until there's a dashcam execution video from a Google car.

We're about to get off-topic but I just want to say...

Replace "gun control" in recent debates with "car control" and the story still resonates.

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Let's not forget the car might be able to drive far more efficiently than you (with the right sensors) and that would improve range.

I want Jerry to be the beta tester for this. If it can reliably keep up with Jerry, much less outpace him, then we're golden.

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Maybe, just maybe I could find some usefulness in ACC at some point in time

Speeding ticket avoidance, or at least mitigation.

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Random observation:
This thread has convinced me to avoid "Suzie" and "Suzy" as names for offspring.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Speeding ticket avoidance, or at least mitigation.

How so?

 

[DaveT]

Yeah, maybe for really, really long stretches of highway driving it'd be nice to take a break. But that's what driver assist and cruise control is for, right? I don't ever see myself sitting behind the wheel and then setting an autopilot and going to sleep. That just ain't gonna happen.

Am I missing the point of an autonomous car? Does anyone else agree or am I once again a lone wolf?

Imagine if you're on a road trip and between Superchargers you can turn on Autopilot and then watch a movie in the car. That's a game-changer.

 

[Reykjavik]

Self driving cars will be safer, that alone makes it worthwhile. It also lets the car do the boring stuff, like cruising for hours at a time. For the forseeable future, you will still be able to do the fun stuff, and you will always be able to do the fun stuff on a track.

 

[brianman]

How so?

Setting cruise control to the speed limit (or near it) makes it unlikely that you will be +20 above by accident (right foot starts having a little fun).

 

[Matias]

If car is autonomous 90% of time you still need to be able to take the wheel at any time. So you can't sleep, read mails or watch movie?