Model X spotted in Europe?

[CarlK]

Aren't the patents published? For the information in the patents you would not need to take apart a Tesla.

I think it is the information beyond the patents that makes it interesting to learn from a Tesla.

Also I know Audi people want to feel how it rides. Porsche got a Tesla for their employees to try out - even over the week end. Audi organises test drives on the track for top employees. They get to test a lot of interesting competitor's cars.

Nothing wrong with learning from the best.

(wich they would)

This once again proved Elon's strategy of making not the best EV but the best car (that utilize the EV advantage) worked beautifully. A few people questioned the wisdom of using resources to do things like ludicrous speed, falcon wing doors or even AP but you can't get consumers and other companies interested in EV without putting in the most advanced technology there. Performance oriented brands like BMW, Audi or Porsche would never take this serious unless you demonstrate to them that this is something you can never achieve with your ICE technology.

 

[johnnyduval]

Johnny if you think the doors are silly why did you ever put a deposit on an X? Or did you really?

*sighs*

Yes I did put a €4,000 deposit down on a Model X in Spring last year. I even had some Tesla shares that I binned at $230 (see other forum posts on that).

Just because I think the doors are an over-engineered waste of time and money, it isn't necessarily enough to stop me buying the car - especially as at least they stay closed 99% of the time. I could *almost* accept the idea if it was on all 4 doors, but by only adding to the rear doors it makes zero logical sense to me. Either they are an awesome idea, in which case we need them on all 4 doors or actually they aren't needed as proven by having normal doors at the front.

My current wheels are a Panamera 4S V8. I bought it 'cos it is comfortable, roomy, and hustles along nicely - but I do think it is pretty fugly on the outer design. I cannot imagine any car would tick all the boxes.

Just reading in in The Times and due to oil fracking advances they are predicting oil prices could stay low for 20 years:

"As a result, they calculate that, barring political crises, the oil price could well stay low till 2035 — about $40 to $60 a barrel in today’s prices. This is in sharp contrast to both the International Energy Agency and the US Energy Information Administration, which forecast an oil price in 2035 of $128 and $130 respectively. As Aguilera and Radetzki point out, the shale revolution has repeatedly made fools of forecasters, who persisted until very recently in seeing the shale-oil revolution as a flash in the barrel."

My Tesla Model X is clearly at least 9-12 months away here in Germany. By a funny twist in the education system both my teenage sons will probably have moved out of home by the time it actually arrives, so having a big 6/7 seat car is looking less appealing every day. Which is just as well at the current production speed.

People here seem to think Tesla has some kinda of amazing lead over the opposition on electric vehicles. The only thing they have is that they have chosen to throw huge money at the project before it is actually economically viable or the demand is proven. That's fine - they can spend their shareholder money any way they fancy as a punt and to be "green". But it is deluded to think that BMW, Porsche, Audi etc cannot build something better if they wished.

 

[YBT]

People here seem to think Tesla has some kinda of amazing lead over the opposition on electric vehicles. The only thing they have is that they have chosen to throw huge money at the project before it is actually economically viable or the demand is proven. That's fine - they can spend their shareholder money any way they fancy as a punt and to be "green". But it is deluded to think that BMW, Porsche, Audi etc cannot build something better if they wished.

Very few here doubt that they are capable - we doubt that they will. These guys all have big $$ invested in the R&D of their ICE technology so are naturally reluctant to move away from that.

Also, can we agree now that the demand is proven? Model S has managed to go from being some goofy South African entrepreneurs fantasy to a class leader in a mere handful of years. Who's to say the X won't do likewise? Selling out the first year of production before a single bum has touched a seat is a good omen for this.

I more or less agree with you on the doors but noticed your comments re: the FW doors show a lack of understanding of their purpose (to make it easier for parents to seat very young children without having to deal with an awkwardly low roof). If you don't use your car for this you can take solace in the fact they are jaw-droppingly cool when you're getting those actuators replaced

This leads to an interesting question - what is the rated duty cycle on the FW doors (ie how many openings/closings are expected before malfunction?)

As a side note - oil fumes are equally as harmful to breathe at $1 per barrel as they are at $100. The uptake of Tesla's and EV's in general won't have any real correlation to oil price as the real consideration here is the future of our planet and those that live on it.

 

[Electroman]

As a side note - oil fumes are equally as harmful to breathe at $1 per barrel as they are at $100.

cue the customary comment on 'coal cars' !

 

[CarlK]

cue the customary comment on 'coal cars' !

Nay, sun cars.

 

[vandacca]

...
Just because I think the doors are an over-engineered waste of time and money, it isn't necessarily enough to stop me buying the car - especially as at least they stay closed 99% of the time. I could *almost* accept the idea if it was on all 4 doors, but by only adding to the rear doors it makes zero logical sense to me. Either they are an awesome idea, in which case we need them on all 4 doors or actually they aren't needed as proven by having normal doors at the front.
...

Just a quick comment on one of your many points. Decisions on the car's features most times come down to design decisions and the limits of physics. They could have a panoramic windshield *or* front falcon doors. Not both. They must have decided that the panoramic windshield was more important.

 

[PaulusdB]

Spotted this morning in Rotterdam port. Destination Frankfurt...

 

[johnnyduval]

to make it easier for parents to seat very young children without having to deal with an awkwardly low roof

It's been about 14 years since either of mine were in nappies - but I gotta say I just do not remember a big issue when putting them in a car. I know when you have a 2 door car and a baby seat in the back it gets annoying (but still fine in reality).....but in a 4 door 4x4 size car strapping kids in the back is a breeze. From memory we had a Honda CRV and a Toyota Rav4 back in those days and it never crossed my mind. There are plenty of bigger issues with toddlers!! Seems like a huge sledgehammer to crack a tiny walnut.

They could have a panoramic windshield *or* front falcon doors. Not both. They must have decided that the panoramic windshield was more important.

Yup. I am fully aware of that. As I am anti the gullwing doors I was never advocating having them in the front anyway. I was just pointing out that if they were this essential, useful thing then it seems *logically* rather odd not to have them on all doors. Unless they are just a gimmick.

p.s. If it helps the windshield sounds like a very nice addition.

As a side note - oil fumes are equally as harmful to breathe at $1 per barrel as they are at $100. The uptake of Tesla's and EV's in general won't have any real correlation to oil price as the real consideration here is the future of our planet and those that live on it.

My point is that it gets harder to sell EV transport to the great unwashed when oil is cheap and staying cheap. Here in Germany they binned the nuclear reactors and produce most of our electricity using Lignite (otherwise known as brown coal). It's the filthiest most polluting way of making electricity you could dream of. Running my car on electricity in Germany won't be doing much better for the environment than using an ICE.

I do appreciate the bigger longterm picture. But the Tesla S and Tesla X are a rich man's toy. If they manage to make a Model 3, at an OK price, then that is moving vaguely in the right direction. If it was really all about saving the planet I have no idea why they even bothered with the S and the X and didn't just produce something cheap and compact?

 

[PeterK]

Spotted this morning in Rotterdam port. Destination Frankfurt...
View attachment 110847

Not Stuttgart or Munich?

 

[johnnyduval]

I see what you did there PeterK

Maybe its for Opel in Rüsselsheim!!

 

[TSLA Pilot]

You assume I feel the need to be electric.......I don't.

Of course, why bother with being "electric" when the future of our one and only planet is at stake?

Scientific Consensus on Global Warming | Union of Concerned Scientists

http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/

I would have thought someone living in Munich would be more up to speed on the consequences of dumping gigatons of GHG's into our oceans and atmosphere, but I guess I would be wrong.

You "vote" when you spend a Euro; please vote for a better future, not more of the status quo that places life at risk.

Thank you.

************************

Dr. Hansen sketched out a future of profound climate threats that he said was on the verge of becoming unstoppable, including a potential collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, which could cause a rise in the sea levels sufficient to drown many coastal regions.
“Our parents did not know that they were causing a problem for future generations by burning fossil fuels,” Dr. Hansen said. “But we can only pretend we do not know.”

 

[vandacca]

...
I do appreciate the bigger longterm picture. But the Tesla S and Tesla X are a rich man's toy. If they manage to make a Model 3, at an OK price, then that is moving vaguely in the right direction. If it was really all about saving the planet I have no idea why they even bothered with the S and the X and didn't just produce something cheap and compact?

The consensus appears to be that since Tesla didn't have the resources to mass-produce a cheap EV right from the start, they decided to build small quantities of a high-end vehicle. This way they could build up their manufacturing process and experience, as well as the capital required to mass-produce a cheaper EV.

 

[johnnyduval]

This way they could build up their manufacturing process and experience, as well as the capital required to mass-produce a cheaper EV.

Manufacturing process and experience? Well in theory they managed to make the Model S function first time off the bat, so surely it would have been just as easy to have started with the Model 3. And no good saying that is with the benefit of hindsight as the $$$ risked on producing the S could just as easily have been risked on producing a Model 3.

Build up Capital? Um........Tesla has hemorrhaged cash from Day 1. They are NOT building up capital.

Quote direct from Reuters on August 10th 2015:
Tesla had just $1.15 billion on hand as of June 30, down from $2.67 billion a year earlier.

 

[vandacca]

Manufacturing process and experience? Well in theory they managed to make the Model S function first time off the bat, so surely it would have been just as easy to have started with the Model 3. And no good saying that is with the benefit of hindsight as the $$$ risked on producing the S could just as easily have been risked on producing a Model 3.

Build up Capital? Um........Tesla has hemorrhaged cash from Day 1. They are NOT building up capital.

Quote direct from Reuters on August 10th 2015:
Tesla had just $1.15 billion on hand as of June 30, down from $2.67 billion a year earlier.

They actually started with the Roadster, not the Model-S. Technically, the Model-X is an extension of the Model-S (same skateboard), although, there have been enough changes to the Model-X that they may regret making it so complicated. And I could argue that they didn't get the Model-S right first time off the bat. They had serious issues that took them a long time to iron out, not to mention having to redesign a number of components (e.g. seats). Judging that they still didn't get it right with the first Models of X that rolled off the line (and also many months delays), I'd argue that they still haven't quite got it right.

However, I think they've learned a lot with these 3 roll-outs and hopefully, the Model-3 will be a lot smoother.

Finally, the last piece of the puzzle that's missing is the Giga Factory. Until that's operational (later this year?), the Model-3 is not possible. They need lower priced batteries to achieve their price-point.

You're quoting cash. WRT capital, they have the Freemont plant, service stations, super-chargers, Netherlands plant, giga-factory, etc.

 

[CarlK]

*sighs*
But it is deluded to think that BMW, Porsche, Audi etc cannot build something better if they wished.

No. They can always wish but they actually could not because they are way behind in this new technology. Yes those legacy companies have been very good, after a century of development, at making good drivetrain with technologies like twin turbo, body fuel injection, high rpm multi-valves and advanced materials that made those possible, double clucth and lunch control and all those emission control systems (cheating or not) that will not rub too much performance and fuel economyout of the car...but unfortunated all these technologies are rendered useless by an (or two) electric motor(s), a single gear and a top notch battery management system. That's why they are so fearful of the new disruptive technology. They have lost all their advantages built over decades if they decide to join, but they could not afford not to either because it is indeed a better technology. It's exactlyt the dame if you do damn if you don't situation for them.

Besides there are things that are beyond the drivetrain. Although German's are very good at mechanical things they are pretty lousy when it comes to computer and electronics. Have you ever bought a German made cell phone, computer and software or any electronic devices? No one outside Germany probably even know they make any. Are you ready to buy a "computer on wheels" made by them if and when they do decide to make a Tesla like car? Just ask anyone who has any experiences with Mercedes or BMW's in car electronic systems. Don't forget the fact that Tesla is also a Silicon Valley technology company that will continue to smoke those legacy companies in that regard.

 

[Red Sage]

Seems like a huge sledgehammer to crack a tiny walnut.

Everything that Tesla Motors does, everything they are attempting to do, everything they must overcome to reach their goals is HARD. In order to succeed and be recognized for the achievement, rather than merely get by with a barely passing grade, it is generally necessary to apply OVERKILL.

I was just pointing out that if they were this essential, useful thing then it seems *logically* rather odd not to have them on all doors. Unless they are just a gimmick.

Or, unless you are doing what you said the Falcon Wing Doors were primarily designed for to begin with, which is allowing easier access to the THIRD ROW. Falcon Wing Doors used on a Two-Door Coupe with only TWO ROWS would likely allow access to the rear seat and front seat simultaneously -- while STILL maintaining the Panoramic Windshield. The access to easily install child booster seats in the second row of the SUV is just a BONUS.

Running my car on electricity in Germany won't be doing much better for the environment than using an ICE.

BUT it will still be BETTER.

If it was really all about saving the planet I have no idea why they even bothered with the S and the X and didn't just produce something cheap and compact?

This has been discussed numerous times in depth, and explained thousands of times in the past 13 years. I will presume you literally do not know, as opposed to being facetious on this point. Please read this:

The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me) | Tesla Motors

This world requires that one have money to get things done. A new, private company must either have lots of funding from a benefactor with deep pockets, or offer extremely profitable products to those who can pay for them, and pay well. Companies that have started on the low end have generally taken a very long time to build to a Capacity level that would make a difference in the market. Tesla Motors did not have a benefactor, beyond Elon Musk, and did not have the time to wait for someone else to do what they deemed necessary to: accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible.

• 
  [*=1]Build sports car
  [*=1]Use that money to build an affordable car
  [*=1]Use that money to build an even more affordable car
  [*=1]While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options
  [*=1]Don't tell anyone.

 

[forumman83]

Absolutely great post Karl.

The electric motor completely makes a century worth of Engine technology obsolete.

Back to the drawing board for all ICE manufactures who now have to start from scratch with battery technology, tooling of plants, hiring of engineers, complex electronics, and of course, elite software programming.

 

[johnnyduval]

Lucky Apple don't have the capability, the cash, the experience or the desire to enter this marketplace in that case.

We can argue this stuff round in circles but personally I think that BMW, Audi, Porsche, Mercedes have massive experience in building all the little parts that make a car.

You can see clearly and openly how Tesla go unstuck with the gullwing doors and the seats on the Model X.......they have openly admitted that - and those are items that have NOTHING to do with the electronic motor that drives the car.

I would argue it's a lot simpler to switch the drivetrain for a vehicle from ICE to ELECTRIC than it is to design a complete motor car from scratch including production lines, seats, windscreens, doors, brakes etc etc.

 

[PeterK]

This has been discussed numerous times in depth, and explained thousands of times in the past 13 years. I will presume you literally do not know, as opposed to being facetious on this point. Please read this:

The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me) | Tesla Motors

Unfortunately you are presuming wrong. This is Johnny's second thread on TMC (that I am aware of, there could be more) where he repeatedly posts provocative and facetious statements to rile people up for his amusement. I guess he got bored waiting for his Model X.

Johnny, considering your kids are grown and you have a similar-sized but lower utility (seats 4 with a small trunk vs 5+2 with frunk and ability to fit full size bicycles, etc with second row folded), why don't you dump your "fugly" Panamera and apply your X deposit to a Model S? I guarantee it will have a lower GHG impact, even with some coal.

 

[PeterK]

No. They can always wish but they actually could not because they are way behind in this new technology. Yes those legacy companies have been very good, after a century of development, at making good drivetrain with technologies like twin turbo, body fuel injection, high rpm multi-valves and advanced materials that made those possible, double clucth and lunch control and all those emission control systems (cheating or not) that will not rub too much performance and fuel economy...but unfortunated all these technologies are rendered useless by an (or two) electric motor, a single gear and a top notch battery management system. That's why they are so fearful of the new disruptive technology. They have lost all their advantages built over decade if they decide to join, but they could not afford not to either because it is indeed a better technology. It's exactlyt the dame if you do damn if you don't situation for them.

Besides there are things that are beyond the drivetrain. Although German's are very good at mechanical things they are pretty lousy when it comes to computer and electronics. Have you ever bought a German made cell phone, computer and software or any electronic devices? No one outside Germany probably even know they make any. Are you ready to buy a "computer on wheels" made by them if and when they do decide to make a Tesla like car? Just ask anyone who has any experiences with Mercedes or BMW's in car electronic systems. Don't forget the fact that Tesla is also a Silicon Valley technology company that will continue to smoke those legacy companies in that regard.

And even if they are successful in making them, in order to effectively market them they have to disparage the vehicles that make up >95% of their sales and, for many at present, >100% of their profits. And at least in the US they are forced to sell through dealers who don't want to sell them, elsewhere they're not legally forced but are reliant upon them.

As for Apple, Faraday Future and others, Tesla welcomes them to validate the market and drive more competition and innovation. There is room for more than one EV manufacturer, just as there are many ICEV manufacturers.