Here is my non-scientific prediction of why we will see lower priced units around mid-summer. Model S deliveries seem to be averaging about 1/3 for the 70 and 2/3 for 85/90. Estimating 25,000 current reservation holder haven't or won't cancel, 17,000 deliveries have to occur before they start with a lower cost version. Add another 5,000 higher end reservations over the next several months and call it 22,000 Xs delivered before the lower end version is available. At a rate of 800/week starting January 1 (may be a bit aggressive on timing), call it mid-summer before we see a lower priced unit.