Harris Ranch is getting first battery swap station

[DFibRL8R]

It seems like it would reduce demand for 85 batteries if you could just swap out your 60 for an 85 at the start of a road trip.

I think a reduced demand for an 85 kWh pack would be a good thing. Those packs are heavy and require more resources to produce. Tesla has also had some issues with maintaining adequate supply of batteries. For most people's day to day driving an 85kWh battery is simply not needed. Personally, I like the concept of a right-size battery for 95% of your driving needs then the option to swap and upsize for a road trip etc. I would gladly rent an 85kWh (or larger!) battery for road trips and the like. Maybe this will all be moot when battery tech makes higher capacity, lighter and cheaper options but it seems like that's still a ways off.

 

[freds]

I think the battery swapping is more driven by qualifying for tax and manufacturing credits that are sold off to other manufactures. Even though it may see limited use by actual users; meeting that qualification hurtle greatly impacts Tesla's bottom line.

 

[callmesam]

The CARB credits are only available to the extent that swap is actually used.

The credits used to be based on swap "capability".

So if Tesla wants the extra credits, then it will need customers to use swap.

 

[abasile]

The CARB credits are only available to the extent that swap is actually used.

The credits used to be based on swap "capability".

So if Tesla wants the extra credits, then it will need customers to use swap.

Can you provide a reference for this? I'm not sure how CARB could base credits on user behavior following each sale. Basing credits on the availability of swap stations, however, seems more reasonable.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Can you provide a reference for this? I'm not sure how CARB could base credits on user behavior following each sale. Basing credits on the availability of swap stations, however, seems more reasonable.

The latest proposal bases it on the number of swap events in proportion to the number of cars on the road for that model year. Say if for example Tesla made 10k Model S in California (made up number) in a year, they would need 10k swap events for that year in order to get the full credit bonus.
http://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2013/zev2013/zevfro.pdf

The previous proposal was based on number of miles covered by swapping versus fleet miles for that year, but Tesla lobbied strongly against that (since this method means Tesla will get close to nothing given the large proportion of home charging/supercharger miles).

 

[abasile]

The latest proposal bases it on the number of swap events in proportion to the number of cars on the road for that model year. Say if for example Tesla made 10k Model S in California (made up number) in a year, they would need 10k swap events for that year in order to get the full credit bonus. http://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2013/zev2013/zevfro.pdf

Thank you for the reference. On that basis, it might be in Tesla's best interest to provide each owner with one or two "free" swaps per year, just to keep the numbers up for CARB. In proportion to the number of cars sold, I doubt that swap events will be very frequent given the excellent, low or no cost charging alternatives.

 

[markb1]

good question. I don't think I'll have that installed until I know it won't prohibit swapping

It appears that the plate overlaps the front edge of the pack, so I'm not how the swap could work. But Tesla must have some plan for that. Anyway, you could always have the shielding installed, and then remove it later.

 

[FredTMC]

It appears that the plate overlaps the front edge of the pack, so I'm not how the swap could work. But Tesla must have some plan for that. Anyway, you could always have the shielding installed, and then remove it later.

Yup

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

It appears that the plate overlaps the front edge of the pack, so I'm not how the swap could work. But Tesla must have some plan for that. Anyway, you could always have the shielding installed, and then remove it later.

I believe this was brought up before and somebody pointed out that the overlapping section is actually attached to the battery.

 

[callmesam]

And Elon said at the Annual Meeting that the shield wasn't necessary. And laughed.

 

[JRP3]

I believe this was brought up before and somebody pointed out that the overlapping section is actually attached to the battery.

That's how it appears to me in the pictures, the aluminum "T" shaped extrusion looks to be attached to the pack, and should come out with it. Even if not, then it might be only another set of nut runners needed to unbolt the extrusion as well.

 

[aaron0k]

AmpedRealtor was talking about the logistics of keeping track of specific owner's packs.

I'd anticipate future lower end "Models" will be sold by leasing the pack or having pack swap/charge subscriptions; a way offset the pack cost and keep the purchase price low. Part of the Gigaplant/Tesla/SolarCity lifecycle. Maintaining, owning (and pre-paying) for packs will be a thing of the past, and mostly regulated to early Model S/X buyers. I expect they'll also ditch the 60k packs and only stock/swap/cycle 85k packs.

 

[JRP3]

Breaking out the pack in a separate lease doesn't make much sense when you can just lease the whole vehicle. You're just describing the failed Better Place model.

 

[DFibRL8R]

Breaking out the pack in a separate lease doesn't make much sense when you can just lease the whole vehicle. You're just describing the failed Better Place model.

True for leasing but since a significant portion of the cost of the vehicle is the battery, if this were uncoupled from the purchase transaction, it could save significantly on the yearly personal property tax some of us pay (mine's about 4k per year based on cost of vehicle plus battery).

 

[JRP3]

Wouldn't leasing the entire car save you even more in that case?

 

[Adm]

Breaking out the pack in a separate lease doesn't make much sense when you can just lease the whole vehicle. You're just describing the failed Better Place model.

Better Place failed because they had a crappy car at a high price with no choice but to swap.

 

[JRP3]

They also had home and public charging as part of their plan, not just swapping.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Wouldn't leasing the entire car save you even more in that case?

With excise tax systems you pay based on the value of the car. If you're leasing, you're still paying for the leased cost (or whole cost in some states). Theoretically, if you completely separate the car and battery you might be able to avoid the MSRP on the battery, but I'm sure states would leap on that loophole.

I don't think that leasing batteries can work well simply because of trust issues. However, having the right to a battery from a pool with n years of warranty with a minimum usable capacity guarantee would be a different matter. Then when you buy a battery, you're buying 8 or 10 years of guarantee and keep-your-swap. CARB will be requiring capacity monitoring, which would help with keep-your-swap pricing.

 

[aaron0k]

Better Place failed because they had a crappy car at a high price with no choice but to swap.

It was a combination of bad timing, bad management and ego based leadership at BP. The idea and concept are good, Musk & Co have the ability to pull it off.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

It was a combination of bad timing, bad management and ego based leadership at BP. The idea and concept are good, Musk & Co have the ability to pull it off.

The battery pool idea is sound.

But the fundamental problem is that the batteries were too small, creating a large dependency on the swapping coverage, requiring a large investment in infrastructure up front to generate sales. That was compounded by having little buy in and a single, unappealing model. Superswappers and battery pools could be much more successful in the Tesla model because large batteries with the Supercharger network can scale up to significant volume and then the Superswappers can gradually be introduced, naturally in areas with higher ownership and contention.

Once there are a reasonable number of Superswappers, it becomes easier to introduce cheaper cars with smaller batteries that's part of a battery pool that would use the Superswappers to enable long-distance travel, either by swapping to a larger pack to get access to Superchargers as well, or by using swapping to another small pack to hop between Swaps.