We should pay attention to history, or we will likely repeat it.
Absolutely. A lot of the exact same things that happened before the CA cars were crushed in 2005 were happening again...half-hearted car conversions, no (or poor) marketing, hostile dealers, FUD campaigns ("you'll be stranded on the freeway", "they're not really green", etc), uninformed media repeating the FUD, automaker petitions to CARB looking to relax quotas, etc. Until recently I was really worried about this; it's why I've been volunteering full-time at Plug In America for a few years.
Tesla showing that a great EV could be made, and that people would really want it, has done an awful lot to change perceptions. The general public is starting to think differently about EVs in general (they are moving from "nobody I know has one of those green penalty cars, they must suck" to "those sound like the cool new thing, I should take a look") and it's getting hard for automakers to credibly argue that nobody will buy an EV, though there is still a small amount of room to say they won't be profitable to make.
Some other automakers have been helping too.
Nissan was the only automaker in the 90's that used lithium batteries; and even though they took all of their EVs back to Japan, they kept doing research on the batteries. Like all the other automakers, they didn't plan to make an electric car until CARB changed the rules and stopped giving credit for hydrogen research - they announced the Leaf program the next month. But they decided that rather than just "complying" with a minimum number of cars, they would try to live up to their "innovation for all" tagline (Nissan had a real public identity problem a few years ago!) and leapfrog the Prius with an EV and try to make it mass-market. While they have made a number of mistakes (GOM instead of SOC meter, overpromising on range, no temperature management, relying on one-time training for dealers, odd styling, advertising based on environmental friendliness - all things Plug In America advised them against years ago) they are correcting what they can and making some real progress. They still see it as just-another-car inside their brand (which is why they don't mind if it's seen as just a green car; and why increasing range to make gas cars uninteresting is not a priority) and are mostly excited about the fact that it draws new buyers to the brand, but they are serious about moving a lot of them and they are definitely setting the pricing floor and turning around the general perceptions of EVs as expensive (something Tesla on its own couldn't have done yet). My Dad has one; the only new car he has ever purchased. If I couldn't afford a Tesla, I'd have bought a Leaf - and I'd be very happy with it as a daily driver.
GM's Volt was a clever move, given what they learned with the EV-1 - their dealers won't sell BEVs (and due to dealer protection laws, GM can't go around them). Even though people with multiple cars and a garage generally prefer BEVs, their PHEV addressed (or at least "should have" addressed) range anxiety, single-car families, non-home-owners and dealer concerns about consumer fears and lower maintenance all at once. And the mostly-serial (as opposed to the Prius' mostly-parallel) architecture really helps give owners what they like - pure electric drive, most of the time. Here is a drop-in vehicle that ANYBODY can buy; you don't have to install infrastructure or learn a new way to use it - and yet if you just plug it in, you can automatically electrify most of your miles. Too bad about the huge FUD campaign aimed at; not to mention GM's own schizophrenic marketing that spread FUD about BEVs when they knew full well that most consumers didn't know the difference between BEVs and PHEVs. There are still a lot of non-owners confused about just what the car can do, but it's got higher owner satisfaction ratings than any other car. GM has been using it mostly as a halo car ("Look at our technology! Better than Toyota! Now buy a Cruze"), but they seem to recognize that they can re-use the platform and get volumes up and prices down and make something out of the platform without having to spend time on infrastructure or dealers. If I couldn't afford a Tesla, my wife would be driving a Volt and I'm positive she'd love it.
Fiat, Honda and Toyota are just doing the compliance thing; their cars are only sold in ZEV states. Which is OK (well, aside from the fact that it means I can't buy one); the problem with regulation mandating that companies make something often results in them...making what you insist they make. The regulation doesn't insist they really try to sell a lot of them. The funny thing is that the quick-electric-conversion versions of their cars are far better than the gas versions - without really trying, they are proving that the cars are great; it's just consumer misconceptions (and dealer reluctance to address them) that have been standing in the way. If they really try, and produce them in volume (rather than just a few by hand, which is very expensive) to get the prices down, they could have some hits. Fiat especially, despite all of their complaining, really seems to be trying to see things from the customer perspective and make things work despite reluctant dealers. I suspect they are small potatoes in the US and looking for a way to grow, and they have figured out that EVs are great conquest vehicles. Now we just hope they also figure out that EV owners don't want to later switch to a gas car, even if it's from the same brand.
I consider
Ford to be compliance too; but they have an interesting twist. They have done multiple vehicles, and are selling them in every state (or will be; the rollout is slow). They clearly don't want to be seen as doing compliance vehicles; but the cheap conversions with little cargo space due to battery placement, non-existent marketing and hostile dealers make it clear they are not planning to move a lot of these. I suspect they didn't have cash for a big new vehicle program and were scared of entering a new and uncertain market; they are just providing a few vehicles so that any Ford loyalist that wants an electric car can get one without leaving the brand, but they are not going to lead the market. Their approach may change rapidly if they are watching the market to see what competitors are succeeding with; I don't think they are going to find a lot of success with what they are doing. But at least, from their perspective, they have not invested much.
Mitsubishi was serious about building an EV before the CARB rule changes - but the i-MiEV was not meant for the US. US dealers were hurting - seriously so; the brand considered leaving the US - and begged for something new when other manufacturers started announcing US EVs. US sales have been predictably low (though it is kind of fun in town; and with new discounts, incredibly cheap). Going forward, they appear to be roughly following GM's footsteps. Too bad their AWD PHEV SUV has been delayed.
The
Smart, Mercedes and BMW entries are too new to figure out exactly what they are going to do with them. I'm intrigued by BMW though. They obviously are going to a lot of effort to build an EV from the ground up and create an optimized vehicle, like Tesla. And yet, its styling doesn't begin to match any other BMW and they are clearly only trying for a city car despite the clean-sheet design. I think they are trying to get a "new type" of customer; one that is younger and doesn't spend a lot of money for a specific brand. Perhaps it's all part of their move from selling cars to mobility services. It will be interesting to watch; especially given that the i3 will have an
optional range extender. By the way, BMW was like Nissan - they had no EV program until the CARB rules changed (early 2009?), and they announced the Mini EV test program with ACP the next month. But they appear to be trying to make a serious go of it, rather than doing the minimum allowed by law.